Prospect barrel rates are estimated for all minor league players during the 2024 – 2026 season. All barrel metrics are modeled and are not based off individual batted ball events.
Notes
- Barrel metrics are modeled and not based off of individual batted ball events.
- Barrel rates look at the modeled barrels per batted ball event.
- Ideal Outcome % (IO%) measures how often a hitter produces an ideal plate appearance outcome by either hitting a barrel or drawing a walk.
Barrell Rate x Level Benchmarks
Benchmarks pulled from 2024 and 2025 prospect barrel rates
- AAA
- Average – 7.5%
- Median – 7.1%
- AA
- Average – 5.1%
- Median – 4.6%
- A+
- Average – 4.8%
- Median – 4.3%
- A
- Average – 4.1%
- Median – 3.4%
- CPX
- Average – 3.8%
- Median – 3.1%
- DSL
- Average – 3.2%
- Median – 2.2%
Model Validity
- Different models were tested using 2023 and 2024 season data (~650 rows of data). The modeled barrel rate was more highly correlated to actual barrel rates vs HR/FB.
- Estimated barrel rate correlation to actual barrel rates: .889
- HR/FB correlation to actual barrel rate: .853
- Average absolute difference of actual barrel rates and modeled barrel rates was 1.6%