2026 Modeled Pitcher Outcomes

Evaluate MiLB pitching prospects through custom outcome-based metrics including strikeouts, ground balls, infield flies, barrels allowed, walks, and overall contact management. Designed to help identify breakout dynasty and fantasy baseball arms before the market catches up.

Notes

Ideal Outcomes: Measures positive pitcher outcomes per batter faced using strikeouts, ground balls, and infield fly balls. These are generally more ideal batted ball events that help limit high run-scoring opportunities.
Negative Outcomes: Measures damaging pitcher outcomes per batter faced using walks, HBP, intentional walks, and a custom modeled barrel rate designed to estimate damaging contact allowed. Lower percentages are better.
Ideal Minus Negative: Compares positive pitcher outcomes against damaging outcomes by subtracting Poor Outcomes from Ideal Outcomes. Higher values indicate pitchers generating more favorable outcomes relative to damaging ones.

Modeled Pitcher Outcome Benchmarks

Benchmarks derived from 2024–2025 MiLB seasons using pitchers with a minimum of 20 innings pitched.

Metric	Average	Plus	Elite
Ideal Outcome	≥56%	≥59.5%	≥65.5%
Negative Outcome	≤16%	≤12.5%	≤8.5%
Ideal – Negative Outcome	≥40%	≥46%	≥55%

2026 Modeled Pitcher Outcomes

Team :

Level :

Age :

SP-RP :

IO Percentile :

NO percentile :

IO-NO Percentile :

wdt_ID	Name	Team	Level	Age	SP-RP	IP	Ideal Outcome	IO Percentile	Negative Outcome	NO percentile	IO-NO	IO-NO Percentile
2	Anthony Eyanson	BOS	High-A	21	SP	20.1	76.9	100	8.8	98	68.2	100
3	Garrett Stratton	NYM	AA	22	RP	26.1	76.3	100	5.4	100	70.9	100
4	Reiver Sanmartin	SFG	AAA	30	RP	27.2	71.8	100	9.5	97	62.3	100
5	Daniel Keaney	TEX	CPX	21	Hybrid	24.1	70.5	99	3.8	100	66.7	100
6	Tyler Gough	LAD	A	22	SP	20.1	67.7	96	5.1	99	62.6	100
7	Ricardo Osorio	OAK	DSL	18	SP	50.2	67.4	99	8.0	97	59.4	100
8	Yaqui Rivera	BAL	AA	22	RP	24.2	74.7	99	12.1	90	62.6	99
9	Ramon Marquez	PHI	High-A	20	SP	30.0	73.6	99	11.2	94	62.3	99
10	Seth Hernandez	PIT	A	20	SP	28.0	72.6	100	10.5	92	62.1	99
11	Nate Snead	LAA	High-A	22	SP	35.1	72.1	99	6.4	100	65.6	99
12	Aaron Watson	CIN	CPX	19	Hybrid	27.2	71.8	100	10.4	95	61.4	99
13	Nestor Lorant	CIN	AA	24	Hybrid	22.1	70.8	99	9.6	96	61.2	99
14	Garrett Langrell	SFG	A	25	RP	37.0	70.6	99	8.9	96	61.7	99
15	Isaac Lyon	WSN	High-A	22	SP	20.1	70.4	99	13.4	85	57.0	99
16	Daniel Brooks	ATL	A	23	RP	27.2	70.1	99	8.5	97	61.6	99
17	Max Martin	KCR	A	22	RP	21.0	70.0	98	8.5	97	61.5	99
18	Juan Villamizar	COL	DSL	17	SP	25.2	69.4	100	10.4	93	59.0	99
19	Juan Cordero	KCR	DSL	20	RP	28.1	69.4	99	11.4	91	58.0	99
20	Jack Mahoney	COL	AA	24	SP	68.0	68.9	98	10.1	95	58.8	99
21	Noah Murdock	PIT	AAA	27	RP	25.2	68.8	99	12.8	86	55.9	99
22	Joe Glassey	BAL	High-A	24	RP	28.1	68.7	99	8.3	98	60.3	99
23	Eli Jones	MIN	High-A	23	SP	40.1	68.4	98	7.1	99	61.3	99
24	Kade Anderson	SEA	AA	21	SP	93.1	68.0	98	6.1	99	62.0	99
25	Jack Bowery	SEA	A	22	Hybrid	90.0	68.0	97	8.1	98	59.9	99
26	Ryan Johnson	LAA	AA	23	SP	20.1	67.8	97	6.2	99	61.6	99
27	Iker Redona	CIN	CPX	18	Hybrid	47.0	67.6	97	4.6	99	63.0	99
28	Jake Bennett	BOS	AAA	25	SP	39.1	66.9	98	10.1	96	56.8	99
29	Cam Booser	TBR	AAA	34	RP	20.0	66.5	98	9.9	97	56.5	99
30	Michael Gil	CIN	DSL	21	RP	22.0	66.0	98	7.9	97	58.1	99
31	River Ryan	LAD	AAA	27	SP	36.1	64.6	96	8.5	98	56.1	99
32	Alvin De Leon	CHC	DSL	18	RP	28.0	64.2	95	6.8	98	57.4	99
33	Josh Fleming	TOR	AAA	30	SP	64.1	64.2	95	8.0	99	56.2	99
34	Braeden Sloan	BAL	High-A	22	RP	42.1	70.7	99	14.1	82	56.5	98
35	Alexander Alberto	TBR	AA	24	RP	28.2	70.5	99	13.3	84	57.3	98
36	Austin Breedlove	NYY	CPX	22	RP	23.0	70.3	99	11.1	91	59.2	98
37	Karson Milbrandt	MIA	AA	22	SP	47.0	70.3	99	13.7	82	56.6	98
38	Reid VanScoter	SEA	AA	27	RP	33.0	69.5	98	11.1	93	58.4	98
39	Mason Peters	SEA	A	22	SP	50.1	69.4	98	10.9	91	58.5	98
40	Landon Harmon	WSN	A	19	SP	32.1	68.8	97	9.7	94	59.2	98
41	Luimy Munoz	TEX	A	23	RP	36.1	68.5	97	10.3	92	58.2	98
42	Ryan Sloan	SEA	AA	20	SP	86.2	67.9	98	10.6	94	57.3	98
43	Grant Holman	PHI	AAA	26	RP	23.1	67.3	99	11.8	90	55.5	98
44	Braden Osbolt	CIN	A	21	RP	26.2	67.3	96	8.8	96	58.5	98
45	Jackson Brockett	CHC	High-A	23	RP	50.1	67.2	98	10.6	96	56.7	98
46	Craig Yoho	MIL	AAA	26	RP	23.0	67.2	98	12.3	89	55.0	98
47	Dylan Brown	BOS	High-A	22	SP	71.2	67.1	98	10.8	95	56.3	98
48	Beck Way	KCR	AAA	26	RP	31.0	67.1	98	13.4	83	53.8	98
49	Micah Ashman	BAL	AA	23	RP	42.2	67.1	97	9.2	97	57.9	98
50	Deimer Rodriguez	BAL	DSL	18	SP	24.1	67.0	98	9.7	95	57.3	98
51	Junior Sanchez	ARI	High-A	20	Hybrid	41.1	66.9	97	10.9	95	56.0	98
		Team	Level	Age	SP-RP			IO Percentile		NO percentile		IO-NO Percentile