Tag: Evan Carter

  • Dynasty Baseball: Undervalued Targets for June 2026

    Dynasty Baseball: Undervalued Targets for June 2026


    Intro

    We are over two months now into the 2026 season and us dynasty managers are either starting to boost our roster for a championship run, or starting to plan for the next few years. Here we will look at a few players who should be relatively cheap to acquire via trade or even possibly waivers/free agency depending on the league size. Regardless of the league size, these are players that I think should be owned in most dynasty formats and will provide strong value going forward. For this article, I tried to avoid including rookies and prospects who I will go into more depth later this season in prospect and rookie review articles where we will dive into rookie performances, dynasty outlooks, as well as player comps.

    As a reminder, I often times reference skill grades in these articles which are our own custom player indexes that we have broken down into the below tools on a 20-80 scale.

    Hitters: Hit, Power, Discipline, Speed

    Pitchers: Induced Contact, Contact Prevention, Command/Control, Arsenal

    With that, let’s dive into the June 2026 Dynasty Player Targets.

    Hitters

    Curtis Mead

    Mead (25) is starting to get consistent everyday playing time with the Nationals and starting to finally come through on some of the prospect pedigree. As a Rays prospect, Fangraphs had him as a 55-grade FV player with a 50 future hit tool and a 55 future game power with 60 future raw power.

    During 2023-2025, Mead showed an average hit tool but graded below average in power and discipline while playing 2B/3B. Ultimately, this level of production was not enough and he was eventually traded to the White Sox organization. He must have taken some tips from Miguel Vargas before he left, as this year he has gone on a breakout fueled by more power and improved, but still average discipline.

    This year, as of the time of writing, he has a career low 58.6% zone-swing rate (67.0% is MLB average) and 24.7% chase rate (28.5% is MLB average), indicating not only is he laying off pitches outside the zone better, but also being more selective on the pitches he swings at in the zone. More specifically, he has been able to lower his chase rate on low pitches out of the zone.

    This shows that Mead is honing in his approach and looking for more specific pitches on the middle and inside part of the zone where he does most of his damage. This is also reflected in his career-high 46.7% pull rate, up from his 38.5% career average.

    With these changes, our custom player skill grades (present/future) now grade him:

    These grades look very similar to Miguel Vargas in 2025 with slightly worse discipline, and we see Mead as a strong buy right now in dynasty leagues.

    Cam Smith

    Cam Smith (23) had tons of hype going into the 2025 season as he had a great spring training and earned himself a spot on the opening day roster. The overall results were not great in 2025 with a .298 wOBA, 9 HRs, and 8 SBs in 134 games, and I even suggested that a demotion may be in order for him to work on his approach during his 2025 Rookie Review.

    Smith showed plus bat speed last year and has improved his average bat speed by significantly increasing his fast-swing rate by 25%, averaging 77.0 mph which puts Cam Smith into the upper echelon of bat speed. He has also made some adjustments at the plate by setting up roughly five inches deeper in the box and about two inches farther off the plate allowing him more time to see pitches.

    While these changes have not led to large increases in production with a .296 wOBA on the season there are some under the hood improvements to be excited about. His xwOBA has increased to .337 signaling he will have some positive regression in the second half of the season. His barrel rate is also up from 6.9% to 13.3%, almost doubling year over year, showing that he is starting to translate his raw power into game power.

    Our custom player skill grades built off 2026 data (present/future) now has him at a 40/45 hit, 60/75 power, 50/55 discipline, and 55/60 speed. The present/future grades have him similar to Byron Buxton, who always had plus raw tools but struggled to stay healthy long enough to put together a complete season.

    Cam Smith is a great buy for dynasty managers looking to build for future seasons and has the potential to put together a 30-30 season during peak seasons.

    Jakob Marsee

    Marsee (25) is off to a slow start in 2026 with a .200/.330/.300 slash line after posting a great .292/.363/.478 slash line during his debut season in 2025. While the performance is not where fantasy managers want it to be, he is still showing a great knack for getting on base and stealing bases with 17 SBs through 70 games played.

    Unlike some other speed-first players such as Chandler Simpson, Victor Scott, Jake McCarthy, and Brenton Doyle, Marsee also pairs his top-end speed with above average hit tool and discipline, with both grading out at 55 on the 20-80 scale. While the power has dipped year over year, with the barrel rate falling from 8.1% to 3.5%, I believe Marsee can still have stretches where he can get to average power and put up ~15 HRs during the course of a season.

    Part of the production decrease could be that pitchers are less willing to challenge Marsee. Last year during his rookie season, pitchers were challenging Marsee with 53.8% of pitches in the zone compared to this year at 48.4% which is right there next to league average. The hot rookie year and batting near the bottom of the Marlins order with minimal protection behind him are certainly reasons for him not seeing as many pitches in the zone which limits his opportunities to put a good swing on a pitch.

    Overall, our skill grades still see a strong player who can contribute to all categories with the below present/future skill grades.

    This may just be a slow stretch to start the 2026 season as the league starts adjusting to him. I recently picked up Marsee in my home league (16 teams) off waivers (after trying to trade for him in the offseason) to replace Oneil Cruz who recently went on the IL. I can see Marsee putting up a strong second half this season and restore his fantasy value.

    Evan Carter

    Evan Carter (23) has long been a fantasy favorite, with many managers expecting big things after his breakout 2023 playoff performance, however with injuries limiting his playing time, he hasn’t fully capitalized on his raw ability. The bad news this year, he is slashing just .176/.292/.321. The good news this year, he has already played a career high in games in his short MLB career and is still showing signs of power and speed with 6 HRs and 10 SBs. Over a full 162 game season that paces out to around a 15 HR/25 SB season which is plenty valuable in fantasy leagues.

    Looking into his 2026 struggles, his wOBA against off-speed and breaking balls is .180 and .256, respectively vs a .325 wOBA against fastballs. Looking at the new BaseballSavant swing data, he is swinging over the top of off-speed pitches 25% of the time compared to just 6% in 2025. Pair this with the whiff% by zone and we can see that the lower part of the strike zone is a weak spot for Carter. Pair that with pitchers are attacking below the zone most frequently of any other location and we have some understanding of where pitchers are going to plan to attack Carter.

    One beneficial adjustment for Carter could be moving farther up in the box to help him get the ball at a slightly more elevated point, especially on off-speed and breaking balls as he is currently standing 27.7 inches deep in the box with 27.9 inches as the MLB average. Carter has a strong eye, shown by his 19.3% chase rate this season, and now just needs to make an adjustment to be able to do more with the lower part of the zone.

    At just 23 years old, he still has time to continue to develop and make adjustments. Our skill grades still like Carter, showing a present/future value below:

    Like Marsee, he has the potential to be an all-around contributor, though with less hit tool and slightly more power upside. Evan Carter is a good buy-low and hold player for dynasty managers in deep leagues looking to build for coming seasons.

    Honorable Mentions

    Trent Grisham

    Garrrett Mitchell

    Pitchers

    Logan Henderson

    Henderson (24) is the one exception to my rookie rule for this article, as I feel he has been flying under the radar compared to other Brewers pitching standouts like Jacob Misiorowski and Kyle Harrison, who have been dominating the league.

    Through his first 5 starts in 2026, Henderson is rocking a strong 33.3% K-rate, 6.7% BB-rate, and a strong 2.74 ERA supported by a 2.41 FIP. Known primarily as a FB/CH pitcher, with FanGraphs rating his CH as a 70-grade pitch on the 20-80 scale, Henderson has also increased usage of his FC and introduced a new SL this season with over 15 additional inches of induced horizontal break.

    YearVelocityInduced VBInduced HB
    2025 – Slider83.3 mph-1.8 inches0.5 inches
    2026 – Slider80.7 mph-3.9 inches-16.1 inches

    This new slider gives him a breaking ball with serious movement that he can utilize against RHB while providing significant separation from his fastball and changeup. For a pitcher who has historically relied heavily on his elite CH, this will give hitters another pitch to worry about and keep them from sitting/guessing on his FB/CH.

    He pairs this upgraded arsenal with already solid and still improving command. Last year our skills grade had his command as a 55 and has improved to 60 this year through his limited starts, which aligns well with Fangraphs present/future command grades of 55/60.

    Even without the premium velocity that many fantasy managers look for, he has plus movement/shapes on all four of his pitches and has plus command which puts him in a strong position to slot into the top three of the Brewers rotation along with the Miz and Kyle Harrison for years to come.  I tried warning everyone to pick up Kyle Harrison back in early May, now this is your warning to go grab Logan Henderson.

    Dustin May

    May (28) returned in 2025 after missing two full seasons due to multiple surgeries and displayed reduced FB velocity, averaging 95.5 mph, along with an elevated 9.6% BB-rate. So far this year the FB velocity is back to averaging 97+ mph while also improving his BB-rate to 6.6%. I often hear command is the last thing to come back when recovering from serious arm injuries/surgeries, and this was likely the case with May as well who happened to also be down a few ticks. After his first normal offseason not spent recovering in years, he has shown there is still plenty left in the tank for a once-promising pitcher.

    Our skill grades last year had May’s arsenal graded at a 50, putting him around MLB average, with a just below average 45-command grade. This year those have ticked up to a 60-grade arsenal and 50-grade command, and are backed up by an improved 6.6% BB-Rate, increased fastball velocity, and a deeper arsenal, now throwing 6 pitches with the addition of a more vertical CB that he hasn’t thrown since 2019.

    While never missing bats at a strong rate, May has a lot to build off with a plus arsenal and average command. This season he is showing fairly drastic splits against RHB versus LHB, with his K-BB% almost 10% higher against RHB (22.2%) vs LHB (12.8%). With the deep arsenal, I believe he can continue refining his approach against LHB by reducing FF usage and leaning more heavily on the rest of his arsenal as hitters currently have a .361 xwOBA against his FF this year.

    With the velocity, command, and arsenal all showing improvements early in 2026, now is a great time to buy in on a pitcher who has some of the strongest upside when considering the little cost it will take to acquire him. He has a ton of similarities in his arsenal to one of the top young dynasty arms, Nolan Mclean, and just needs to make a few adjustments against LHB to really take off. May is a strong buy/stash option for dynasty managers looking for pitching in the second half of the year and on.

    Honorable Mention

    Reid Detmers


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  • Breakout Dynasty Targets – June

    Breakout Dynasty Targets – June


    The last dynasty breakout article in April dived into early dynasty breakout targets like Ben Rice, Tyler Soderstrom, Jonathan Aranda, Jacob Wilson, and more. Now, as the 2025 campaign pushes past the halfway mark, it is time to revisit more dynasty breakouts.

    This list focuses on current MLB players who have taken tangible steps forward in their development and are positioned to breakout and have dynasty league relevance.

    Hitters

    Evan Carter

    Carter has been one of the few bright spots for the Texas Rangers this season. After recovering from some back issues and and opening the season in the minors, he’s now rounding into form. Among Rangers hitters with 90+ plate appearances, Carter currently leads the team in wRC+ (128), wOBA (.352), and OPS (.797).

    While Carter didn’t light up the minors earlier in 2025, there are notable changes in his approach at the Major League level through his first 28 games this season

    The biggest change is Carter’s newfound aggressiveness at the plate. According to Baseball Savant, the MLB average swing rate is 47.3%. In 2023 and 2024, Carter’s swing rates sat well below that mark at just 34.5% and 38.3%, respectively. But in 2025, he has bumped it up to 44.4%, approaching league average.

    Being overly passive can cause good hitters to miss out on pitches they can hit early in counts. It can also lead to deeper counts, increasing both strikeouts and walks. Carter’s increase in z-swing rate appears to be paying off: his strikeout rate has dropped from 26.5% in 2024 to just 17% so far in 2025.

    Another big development is his improved quality of contact. Carter’s barrel rate has risen to 10.4%, up from 5.9% last year. He flashed similar pop in a small sample back in 2023, the year he became a postseason hero for the Rangers. This season, he is combining a career-low strikeout rate, double-digit barrel percentage, and more aggression in the box.

    At just 22 years old, our DoubleScoop tool grades project Carter to keep taking steps forward. His current dynasty tool grades are as follows:

    One possible fantasy comp is an outfield version of CJ Abrams, who provides a power and speed blend. Our dynasty grades expect an uptick in Carter’s tools due to his young age (22), however I expect there could be some power regression as we get a larger 2025 sample. Even with some pullback, he has the tools to be a perennial 20-20 threat.

    Keep an eye on his zone swing rate (Z-Swing%). If he continues hunting strikes more aggressively, he will be better positioned to capitalize on his hit and power tools.

    Miguel Vargas

    Miguel Vargas has secured every day at-bats in 2025, his first full season with the White Sox. While his season-long slash line of .236/.314/.426 (108 wRC+) may not jump off the page, he’s been heating up. Since May 1, he has posted a .246/.320/.497 line with a 127 wRC+.

    Vargas carries prospect pedigree, having been ranked No. 37 overall by MLB Pipeline in 2023 while with the Dodgers. Still, coming into this season, he held a career batting average under .200 through his first 171 big-league games from 2022 to 2024.

    There were flashes beneath the surface in 2023 and 2024. Vargas had an above-average chase rate and pull-air percentage in both 2023 and 2024. Now in 2025, he’s showing improvements in barrel rate, average exit velocity, and zone-contact rate, positive steps toward unlocking his potential.

    He has also made some subtle adjustments in the batter’s box. Per Baseball Savant, Vargas has moved back in the box, shifting from 28.5 to 30.2 inches (league average is 27.8),and has opened his stance from 1 degree to 6 degrees (league average is 11%). While minor, these tweaks may be helping him tap into more power.

    While Vargas doesn’t boast elite exit velos, bat speed, or barrel numbers, he’s maximizing his raw pop with excellent pull-air rates, similar to how players like Isaac Paredes and Alex Bregman succeed. If he sustains these gains, Vargas could become a foundational piece in the middle of the White Sox lineup moving forward.

    Pitchers

    Will Warren

    I mentioned Will Warren in our first rookie review article earlier this year, and if you haven’t yet, it’s worth a quick read as a refresher. While his surface stats (4.66 ERA and 1.33 WHIP) don’t scream breakout, there’s a lot more going on beneath the hood. Warren has a 29.4% strikeout rate backed by a 31.0% CSW%. Among starting pitchers with at least 20 innings (4+ starts), that K% ranks top 15.

    A key reason for his continued ascent is how he’s diversified his pitch mix over the season:

    Earlier in the year, Warren leaned heavily on his SI/SW against RHB and FF/CH against LHB. Now, he is showcasing a more refined arsenal. His best fastball remains the sinker, with above-average vertical movement and average velocity (93.1 MPH). The 4-seam averages 93.4 MPH and lacks great shape but still generates a 28.3% whiff rate. Lastly, the sweeper (3038 RPM) and curveball (2908 RPM) both feature excellent spin rates, leading to plus movement and whiff rates above 30%.

    Since May, Warren has kept his walk rate below 10% every month after opening the season at 11.4% in March/April. That early command inconsistency also aligned with his worst ERA split (5.63), which improved to 4.82 in May and currently sits at 3.47 in June

    The biggest weakness for Warren in 2025 has been left-handed hitters.

    LHB are batting .522 against his sweeper which he throws around 18% to LHB. I’d like to see Warren adjust his approach to LHBs: lean more on the four-seam, changeup, and curveball while mixing in the sinker and sweeper as show-me offerings below 5% usage. While Stuff+ only grades his changeup at 85, lefties are hitting just .220 against it with a 26.7% whiff rate. Meanwhile, his curveball has a Stuff+ of t 115, with LHBs batting .250 and whiffing 42.9% of the time against the pitch.

    He already uses a similar strategy vs. RHBs, favoring the sinker, sweeper, and four-seam while rarely throwing the changeup or curve. That said, there can be a similar case made for using the changeup and curveball as show me pitches against RHB.

    Warren is breaking out in his first full MLB season. He is showing small improvements in his BB%, evolving his pitch mix, and emerging as one of the leagues upcoming K leaders. The next step is limiting damage against lefties, especially in a tough home park that plays up for LHB. Still, with top-tier swing-and-miss ability, he profiles as a potential top-50 dynasty SP with upside for more at his peak.

    Michael Soroka

    Michael Soroka has already experienced a career’s worth of highs and lows while still just 27. Debuting at age 20, he found immediate success in the majors, posting ERAs of 3.51, 2.68, and 3.95 in his first three seasons while making the NL All-Star team in 2019. Then came the setbacks. Soroka tore his Achilles in 2020, and re-tore the same Achilles during his comeback attempt, requiring a second surgery. In total, he missed roughly three full MLB seasons due to these injuries.

    Now in 2025, in his third year back, Soroka is beginning to flash the form that once made him one of the game’s most promising young arms, despite what his 5.06 ERA might suggest. Among the biggest improvements this season:

    • Career-best 4-seam and sinker velocity: 94.3 and 94.2 MPH, respectively
    • Highest K% of his career at 26.5%
    • BB% down to 6.3%, in line with early-career levels
    • On pace for a career-best WHIP of 1.09

    Another development: Soroka has scrapped his longtime slider in favor of a slurve. This new pitch brings 100 more RPM of spin, 4 additional inches of vertical break, and roughly 8 more inches of horizontal movement. It’s been effective with opposing hitters posting just a .210 wOBA against the slurve, compared to .263 wOBA against his slider in 2024.

    While the surface ERA remains inflated, his 3.19 xERA indicates strong potential for positive regression. Even more compelling: his 2025 K-BB% is better than that of Paul Skenes, Max Fried, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Spencer Schwellenbach.

    At 27, Soroka appears to be entering his prime. He is shaping up to be a high-floor SP with plus command and steadily improving strikeout skills with his increased velocity and new usage of his slurve. I have been targeting him across leagues, expecting a strong second half from a pitcher quietly putting it back together. A free agent after the 2025 season, he could be a dark-horse trade candidate this season which could further improve his fantasy appeal.


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