Tag: Cam Smith

  • Dynasty Baseball: Undervalued Targets for June 2026

    Dynasty Baseball: Undervalued Targets for June 2026


    Intro

    We are over two months now into the 2026 season and us dynasty managers are either starting to boost our roster for a championship run, or starting to plan for the next few years. Here we will look at a few players who should be relatively cheap to acquire via trade or even possibly waivers/free agency depending on the league size. Regardless of the league size, these are players that I think should be owned in most dynasty formats and will provide strong value going forward. For this article, I tried to avoid including rookies and prospects who I will go into more depth later this season in prospect and rookie review articles where we will dive into rookie performances, dynasty outlooks, as well as player comps.

    As a reminder, I often times reference skill grades in these articles which are our own custom player indexes that we have broken down into the below tools on a 20-80 scale.

    Hitters: Hit, Power, Discipline, Speed

    Pitchers: Induced Contact, Contact Prevention, Command/Control, Arsenal

    With that, let’s dive into the June 2026 Dynasty Player Targets.

    Hitters

    Curtis Mead

    Mead (25) is starting to get consistent everyday playing time with the Nationals and starting to finally come through on some of the prospect pedigree. As a Rays prospect, Fangraphs had him as a 55-grade FV player with a 50 future hit tool and a 55 future game power with 60 future raw power.

    During 2023-2025, Mead showed an average hit tool but graded below average in power and discipline while playing 2B/3B. Ultimately, this level of production was not enough and he was eventually traded to the White Sox organization. He must have taken some tips from Miguel Vargas before he left, as this year he has gone on a breakout fueled by more power and improved, but still average discipline.

    This year, as of the time of writing, he has a career low 58.6% zone-swing rate (67.0% is MLB average) and 24.7% chase rate (28.5% is MLB average), indicating not only is he laying off pitches outside the zone better, but also being more selective on the pitches he swings at in the zone. More specifically, he has been able to lower his chase rate on low pitches out of the zone.

    This shows that Mead is honing in his approach and looking for more specific pitches on the middle and inside part of the zone where he does most of his damage. This is also reflected in his career-high 46.7% pull rate, up from his 38.5% career average.

    With these changes, our custom player skill grades (present/future) now grade him:

    These grades look very similar to Miguel Vargas in 2025 with slightly worse discipline, and we see Mead as a strong buy right now in dynasty leagues.

    Cam Smith

    Cam Smith (23) had tons of hype going into the 2025 season as he had a great spring training and earned himself a spot on the opening day roster. The overall results were not great in 2025 with a .298 wOBA, 9 HRs, and 8 SBs in 134 games, and I even suggested that a demotion may be in order for him to work on his approach during his 2025 Rookie Review.

    Smith showed plus bat speed last year and has improved his average bat speed by significantly increasing his fast-swing rate by 25%, averaging 77.0 mph which puts Cam Smith into the upper echelon of bat speed. He has also made some adjustments at the plate by setting up roughly five inches deeper in the box and about two inches farther off the plate allowing him more time to see pitches.

    While these changes have not led to large increases in production with a .296 wOBA on the season there are some under the hood improvements to be excited about. His xwOBA has increased to .337 signaling he will have some positive regression in the second half of the season. His barrel rate is also up from 6.9% to 13.3%, almost doubling year over year, showing that he is starting to translate his raw power into game power.

    Our custom player skill grades built off 2026 data (present/future) now has him at a 40/45 hit, 60/75 power, 50/55 discipline, and 55/60 speed. The present/future grades have him similar to Byron Buxton, who always had plus raw tools but struggled to stay healthy long enough to put together a complete season.

    Cam Smith is a great buy for dynasty managers looking to build for future seasons and has the potential to put together a 30-30 season during peak seasons.

    Jakob Marsee

    Marsee (25) is off to a slow start in 2026 with a .200/.330/.300 slash line after posting a great .292/.363/.478 slash line during his debut season in 2025. While the performance is not where fantasy managers want it to be, he is still showing a great knack for getting on base and stealing bases with 17 SBs through 70 games played.

    Unlike some other speed-first players such as Chandler Simpson, Victor Scott, Jake McCarthy, and Brenton Doyle, Marsee also pairs his top-end speed with above average hit tool and discipline, with both grading out at 55 on the 20-80 scale. While the power has dipped year over year, with the barrel rate falling from 8.1% to 3.5%, I believe Marsee can still have stretches where he can get to average power and put up ~15 HRs during the course of a season.

    Part of the production decrease could be that pitchers are less willing to challenge Marsee. Last year during his rookie season, pitchers were challenging Marsee with 53.8% of pitches in the zone compared to this year at 48.4% which is right there next to league average. The hot rookie year and batting near the bottom of the Marlins order with minimal protection behind him are certainly reasons for him not seeing as many pitches in the zone which limits his opportunities to put a good swing on a pitch.

    Overall, our skill grades still see a strong player who can contribute to all categories with the below present/future skill grades.

    This may just be a slow stretch to start the 2026 season as the league starts adjusting to him. I recently picked up Marsee in my home league (16 teams) off waivers (after trying to trade for him in the offseason) to replace Oneil Cruz who recently went on the IL. I can see Marsee putting up a strong second half this season and restore his fantasy value.

    Evan Carter

    Evan Carter (23) has long been a fantasy favorite, with many managers expecting big things after his breakout 2023 playoff performance, however with injuries limiting his playing time, he hasn’t fully capitalized on his raw ability. The bad news this year, he is slashing just .176/.292/.321. The good news this year, he has already played a career high in games in his short MLB career and is still showing signs of power and speed with 6 HRs and 10 SBs. Over a full 162 game season that paces out to around a 15 HR/25 SB season which is plenty valuable in fantasy leagues.

    Looking into his 2026 struggles, his wOBA against off-speed and breaking balls is .180 and .256, respectively vs a .325 wOBA against fastballs. Looking at the new BaseballSavant swing data, he is swinging over the top of off-speed pitches 25% of the time compared to just 6% in 2025. Pair this with the whiff% by zone and we can see that the lower part of the strike zone is a weak spot for Carter. Pair that with pitchers are attacking below the zone most frequently of any other location and we have some understanding of where pitchers are going to plan to attack Carter.

    One beneficial adjustment for Carter could be moving farther up in the box to help him get the ball at a slightly more elevated point, especially on off-speed and breaking balls as he is currently standing 27.7 inches deep in the box with 27.9 inches as the MLB average. Carter has a strong eye, shown by his 19.3% chase rate this season, and now just needs to make an adjustment to be able to do more with the lower part of the zone.

    At just 23 years old, he still has time to continue to develop and make adjustments. Our skill grades still like Carter, showing a present/future value below:

    Like Marsee, he has the potential to be an all-around contributor, though with less hit tool and slightly more power upside. Evan Carter is a good buy-low and hold player for dynasty managers in deep leagues looking to build for coming seasons.

    Honorable Mentions

    Trent Grisham

    Garrrett Mitchell

    Pitchers

    Logan Henderson

    Henderson (24) is the one exception to my rookie rule for this article, as I feel he has been flying under the radar compared to other Brewers pitching standouts like Jacob Misiorowski and Kyle Harrison, who have been dominating the league.

    Through his first 5 starts in 2026, Henderson is rocking a strong 33.3% K-rate, 6.7% BB-rate, and a strong 2.74 ERA supported by a 2.41 FIP. Known primarily as a FB/CH pitcher, with FanGraphs rating his CH as a 70-grade pitch on the 20-80 scale, Henderson has also increased usage of his FC and introduced a new SL this season with over 15 additional inches of induced horizontal break.

    YearVelocityInduced VBInduced HB
    2025 – Slider83.3 mph-1.8 inches0.5 inches
    2026 – Slider80.7 mph-3.9 inches-16.1 inches

    This new slider gives him a breaking ball with serious movement that he can utilize against RHB while providing significant separation from his fastball and changeup. For a pitcher who has historically relied heavily on his elite CH, this will give hitters another pitch to worry about and keep them from sitting/guessing on his FB/CH.

    He pairs this upgraded arsenal with already solid and still improving command. Last year our skills grade had his command as a 55 and has improved to 60 this year through his limited starts, which aligns well with Fangraphs present/future command grades of 55/60.

    Even without the premium velocity that many fantasy managers look for, he has plus movement/shapes on all four of his pitches and has plus command which puts him in a strong position to slot into the top three of the Brewers rotation along with the Miz and Kyle Harrison for years to come.  I tried warning everyone to pick up Kyle Harrison back in early May, now this is your warning to go grab Logan Henderson.

    Dustin May

    May (28) returned in 2025 after missing two full seasons due to multiple surgeries and displayed reduced FB velocity, averaging 95.5 mph, along with an elevated 9.6% BB-rate. So far this year the FB velocity is back to averaging 97+ mph while also improving his BB-rate to 6.6%. I often hear command is the last thing to come back when recovering from serious arm injuries/surgeries, and this was likely the case with May as well who happened to also be down a few ticks. After his first normal offseason not spent recovering in years, he has shown there is still plenty left in the tank for a once-promising pitcher.

    Our skill grades last year had May’s arsenal graded at a 50, putting him around MLB average, with a just below average 45-command grade. This year those have ticked up to a 60-grade arsenal and 50-grade command, and are backed up by an improved 6.6% BB-Rate, increased fastball velocity, and a deeper arsenal, now throwing 6 pitches with the addition of a more vertical CB that he hasn’t thrown since 2019.

    While never missing bats at a strong rate, May has a lot to build off with a plus arsenal and average command. This season he is showing fairly drastic splits against RHB versus LHB, with his K-BB% almost 10% higher against RHB (22.2%) vs LHB (12.8%). With the deep arsenal, I believe he can continue refining his approach against LHB by reducing FF usage and leaning more heavily on the rest of his arsenal as hitters currently have a .361 xwOBA against his FF this year.

    With the velocity, command, and arsenal all showing improvements early in 2026, now is a great time to buy in on a pitcher who has some of the strongest upside when considering the little cost it will take to acquire him. He has a ton of similarities in his arsenal to one of the top young dynasty arms, Nolan Mclean, and just needs to make a few adjustments against LHB to really take off. May is a strong buy/stash option for dynasty managers looking for pitching in the second half of the year and on.

    Honorable Mention

    Reid Detmers


    Comment on the post or reach out to us on X if you have any fantasy related questions!

  • Rookie Analysis & Tool Grades: June 2025

    Rookie Analysis & Tool Grades: June 2025


    It has been about a month since the May rookie review so time for a June follow up. On this series I dive into both rookie hitter and pitcher performances’ so far this season and look to provide some outlook into their fantasy usefulness, provide tool grades, as well as find relevant comps for their tool profile.

    One thing I will mention throughout the rookie review series are my DoubleScoop tool grades. Hit, Power, Discipline, and Speed for hitters, and Induced Contact, Contact Prevention, Control, and Arsenal for pitchers. These grades follow the traditional 20–80 scouting scale, where 50 represents MLB average, 20 being the lowest and 80 being the highest. I recommend checking out Fangraphs article – Scouting Explained: The 20-80 Scouting Scale | FanGraphs Baseball – or search online if wanting to understand the 20-80 scale better.

    DoubleScoop Hitter Tools

    • Hit – Grades player on ability to put the ball in play and quality of the contact
    • Power – Grades player on their bat speed, Max EVs, and barrels
    • Discipline – Grades player’s ability to control the strike zone and work walks
    • Speed – Grades player’s sprint speed, aggressiveness, and their efficiency on the basepaths

    DoubleScoop Pitchers Tools

    • Induced Contact – Grades pitcher on ability to limit favorable hitter outcomes
    • Contact Prevention – Grades pitcher’s ability to avoid hitters making contact
    • Control – Grades pitcher’s ability to control their pitches in the zone
    • Arsenal – Grades pitcher on the quality and randomness of their pitches

    Chase Meidroth

    Initially viewed as more of a complementary piece to top catching prospect Kyle Teel and 2024 12th overall pick Braden Montgomery, Meidroth has established himself as the everyday shortstop for the White Sox in 2025. Since May, he’s been locked into either the leadoff or No. 2 spot in the lineup, earning consistent at-bats. That opportunity has paid off, as he’s slashed .298/.383/.382 with a 123 wRC+, 7 SB, and 17 R over 149 plate appearances (33 games started).

    Meidroth calling card is his hit tool, currently graded at a 70 by our DoubleScoop tool grades, along with above average discipline (55) and speed (55). While he should be able to run consistent high batting averages due to his hit tool, he also is not afraid to take his walks. Meidroth at the time of this article, is in the 97th percentile in chase rate, meaning he is one of the best in the league at not chasing pitches out of the strike zone.

    His profile draws similarities to players like Geraldo Perdomo and Santiago Espinal—high-contact hitters with limited power, average-to-above-average speed, and solid plate discipline.

    This profile can be fantasy relevant as we are seeing Perdomo have a 2025 fantasy breakout and already almost breaking his career high in HR and RBIs. In roto leagues, look at Meidroth as a 3-category contributor who will provide a nice batting average floor, solid run production, and around 15-20 SBs over the course of a full season.

    Carlos Narváez

    Carlos Narváez has been a nice surprise for the Red Sox this season, posting a .280/.357/.457 slash line, good for a 126 wRC+ while also providing strong defensive value behind the plate. Though never regarded as a top prospect and failing to make most organizational top prospect lists during his time in the NYY organization, he is certainly leaving his mark around the league. As of the time of writing, he currently ranks 2nd behind Jacob Wilson in fWAR among all rookie hitters according to Fangraphs.

    Narváez grades out with average to above average tools across the board except for his speed, which is often not expected for catchers. He comps similarly to sluggers like Colt Keith (1B/2B/3B) and Brent Rooker (DH/OF) who also are graded out with average Hit tools with plus power and discipline. With Narváez behind the dish, I do not expect him to reach the lofty 30+ HR totals that Rooker has put up during the past few seasons. With 450+ PA, I see Narvaez having the skill set to hit 15-20 HRs which is valuable for a catcher in fantasy leagues.

    Narváez has earned the larger share of playing time over Connor Wong due to his strong defense and hitting this season, but something to note as the Red Sox will still want to find ABs for Wong. Narváez should be started in all two catcher leagues at this point in 2025 and view him as a top-15 catcher in redraft leagues.

    Cam Smith

    Cam Smith made headlines to start the 2025 season making the opening day roster for the Astros with just 32 MiLB games under his belt after being drafted 14th overall by the Cubs in 2024. Not only being challenged by MLB pitchers with limited MiLB experience, Smith is also dealing with learning a new position, having shifted from 3B to RF to find a way to get him into the lineup.

    Results so far have been what you could expect with all that has been thrown at Cam Smith, posting a .246/.325/.363 slash with a 99 wRC+. Players with similar tool grades over the past two seasons are Jarred Kelenic (2024) and Nolan Jones (2025). Kelenic, a highly regarded OF prospect from SEA, also debuted at a young age at just 21 years old but so far has failed to develop into an everyday player.

    Some of these current player comps may frustrate Astros fans, but at just 22 years old, there is still plenty of room for growth for Smith. One glimmer of hope is that Smith has the highest bat speed of the 3 players above averaging 75.2 mph on his swing, meaning there is more raw power that could be unlocked. While I am not a GM or in player development, it makes me wonder if some extra AAA time to work on developing a stronger plate approach without the pressure of playing on the MLB team could benefit Smith in the long-term and avoid following the path of Kelenic.

    Caleb Durbin

    Durbin, an undersized Yankees prospect, was traded to the Brewers system in December 2024 as part of the Yankees aquiring Devin Williams. While never a fixture on top prospect lists, he was a standout in the 2024 Arizona Fall League (AFL) slashing .312/.427/.548 in 24 games.

    Durbin has not transitioned his AFL/minor league production into MLB production yet, slashing just .208/.302/.315 through his first 47 games. Looking under the hood, there are some things to like out of Durbin. Durbin possesses great contact skills, finding himself near the top of the leaderboards in K%, Whiff%, and contact % which is a big reason why his hit tool grades out at an elite level even though he is only batting .208 at the moment.

    Durbin’s not likely to be a double-digit home run threat, maybe peaking at 10 in a season, but that doesn’t mean he can’t carve out fantasy value. His skill set is similar to that of Nico Hoerner, featuring a high-contact bat paired with plus speed.

    I see Durbin being able to turn his season around and a walk-off HR against my Padres for his first big league HR should help his confidence. With an extremely low BABIP of .213, it is not hard to see some positive regression come along and start to see his batting average creep up closer to the .250 – .260 range this season. Getting on base will also allow Durbin to steal more bases, with only 5 on the season so far after posting 30+ steals each full season in the minors.

    While Durbin’s profile is better fit for 2B, the Brewers have Turang locked in at 2B for the near future. I like Durbin in deeper dynasty leagues and will be looking at Durbin in 2026 roto leagues as a late round sleeper.

    Jackson Jobe

    Jobe entered the 2025 season ranked as the Tigers’ top prospect and the No. 5 overall prospect in baseball, according to MLB Pipeline. That only added to the already lofty expectations for the 22-year-old right-hander, who was drafted third overall out of high school in 2021. At the time, scouts and analysts raved about his high-spin slider and overall pitchability.

    Now, just 22 years, Jobe finds himself on the IL with a flexor strain which no clear timetable on his return. Having had multiple personal flexor strains and a UCL strain myself, this is not great news for Jobe who was hoping to be a ROY candidate in 2025.

    Over 10 starts and 49 innings in 2025, his pitch metrics have drawn comps to both Sandy Alcantara, who is returning from Tommy John surgery, and Frankie Montas. Most years, being compared to Alcantara would be a massive compliment, but in 2025, Alcantara has struggled to regain his elite command. Even the lower end of the comp in Montas represents a serviceable MLB starter, though it would be a notable drop-off for someone tabbed as the game’s top pitching prospect just months ago.

    We will have to wait patiently to hear more news on Jobe’s injury and timeline to return to pitching. The Arsenal grade being listed as a 55 is a strong indicator that there is upside for more but will need to either find the right mix across his other pitches outside of his 4-seam and slider or tighten his command to take the next step forward. I’d consider dropping Jobe in redraft leagues unless you have IL stashes until you hear any next update on his injury.

    Ben Casparius

    Casparius has thrived in a relief role with the Dodgers in his rookie year in 2025, posting a 2.93 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 27.3% K-rate, and 4.3% BB-rate in 40 innings (21 appearances). Primarily used a starter in the minors, he now operares as a multi-iinning weapon out of the Dodgers bullpen. He served as an opener on April 23rd (2.2 IP) and got a spot start against the Padres today, going four innings as a wrote this article.

    While Casparius grades out well as a reliever, it looks like the Dodgers are preparing to stretch him out as a starter to help cover a rotation plagued by injuries. To try and project Casparius grades as an SP, I took 2024 grades for the innings that Kris Bubic, Clay Holmes, and Grant Holmes pitched out of the bullpen and compared it to their 2025 grades as starting pitchers. From there I took the average % in change and applied that to his 2025 grades. Below are Casparius 2025 grades as a RP as well as his projected SP tool grades with comps to other similar starters.

    The estimated SP tool projections for Ben Casparius are strong across the board and have intriguing comps, including Ryan Weathers and Jacob Degrom. Casparius has an SP arsenal with his 4-Seam, Sweeper, Cutter, and Curveball mix which he mixes up well against LHP and RHP.

    If stretched out to go five innings consistently, Casparius could become a major fantasy asset as we approach the season’s midpoint. I’m comfortable viewing him as a top-30 SP talent for the rest of 2025. Even with 107.2 innings in 2023 marking his career high, I’m betting that at age 26, and with the Dodgers’ current rotation woes, they’ll let him ride as long as he stays healthy.

    Go snag Casparius off waivers or free agency if he’s still out there, he might just be one of the sneakiest SP values of the season!

    Hunter Dobbins

    Dobbins, ranked as the No. 13 Red Sox prospect ahead of the 2025 season by MLB Pipeline, has managed to hold onto a rotation spot due to a combination of injuries and struggles from other Red Sox arms (Giolito, Houck, Crawford, Fitts). So far, he’s been a serviceable starter, posting a 4.20 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 2025.

    Dobbins features a five-pitch mix made of a 4-seam, slider, curveball, sweeper, and splitter of which he throws all pitches at least 10% of the time. While only striking out hitters 17.9% of the time, he makes up for his lack of K’s by limiting free passes (4.8% BB-rate).

    Dobbins skill profile matches up similarly with Jameson Taillon, a veteran pitcher known for his ability to mix and locate his pitches rather than overpowering stuff. Even though Dobbins is striking hitters out at just a 17.9% rate, his 50-grade contact prevention indicate he may be able to tick up his K% closer to 20%. Notably, his curveball and slider generate strong whiff% at 40% and 30.3% respectively. That said, he will need to continue to refine his off-speed pitch mix as he only generates a 13.3% whiff rate on his 4-seam with hitters batting .313 off the pitch.

    Without a plus fastball,Dobbins does not project as a frontline starter. Dobbins more realistically profiles as a solid 4th starter or lower end 3rd starter during his peak.

    Logan Evans

    Ranked as the #10 Seattle prospect in 2025 by MLB Pipeline, Evans has found himself with opportunities to start this season due to injuries to George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, and Bryce Miller. Evans has a deep arsenal, including a cutter, sweeper, sinker, change-up, 4-seam, and curveball, each thrown over 10% of the time.

    Through seven starts this season, Evans has a 3.38 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 18.0% K-rate, and 7.2% BB-rate. While the ERA and WHIP are respectable, I expect regression from Evans given his below average contact prevention with only league average induced contact.

    Evan’s arsenal could play up with his three different fastballs and his strong command. With improvements to his induced contact, he could see a higher-end comp like Michael Wacha. I do not expect him to improve his contact prevention much as he does not have any pitches with a 30% whiff rate, with the top being his cutter with a 25% whiff rate.

    Evans currently profiles as a back of the rotation arm who should eat innings and be useful in good streaming matchups. His 3-fastballs are a good foundation for a starter and could see improvements in his induced contact if he continues to develop. For now, plan on using Evans as a streamer at home or vs poor offenses.


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