2024 Modeled Pitcher Outcomes

Evaluate MiLB pitching prospects through custom outcome-based metrics including strikeouts, ground balls, infield flies, barrels allowed, walks, and overall contact management. Designed to help identify breakout dynasty and fantasy baseball arms before the market catches up.

Notes

Ideal Outcomes: Measures positive pitcher outcomes per batter faced using strikeouts, ground balls, and infield fly balls. These are generally more ideal batted ball events that help limit high run-scoring opportunities.
Negative Outcomes: Measures damaging pitcher outcomes per batter faced using walks, HBP, intentional walks, and a custom modeled barrel rate designed to estimate damaging contact allowed. Lower percentages are better.
Ideal Minus Negative: Compares positive pitcher outcomes against damaging outcomes by subtracting Poor Outcomes from Ideal Outcomes. Higher values indicate pitchers generating more favorable outcomes relative to damaging ones.

Modeled Pitcher Outcome Benchmarks

Benchmarks derived from 2024–2025 MiLB seasons using pitchers with a minimum of 20 innings pitched.

Metric	Average	Plus	Elite
Ideal Outcome	≥56%	≥59.5%	≥65.5%
Negative Outcome	≤16%	≤12.5%	≤8.5%
Ideal – Negative Outcome	≥40%	≥46%	≥55%

2024 Modeled Pitcher Outcomes

Team :

Level :

Age :

SP-RP :

IP :

Ideal Outcome :

Negative Outcome :

IO – NO :

Name	wdt_ID	Team	Level	Age	SP-RP	IP	Ideal Outcome	Negative Outcome	IO – NO
A.J. Block	2	KCR	High-A	26	RP	51.0	60.6	20.7	40.0
A.J. Labas	3	MIN	High-A	25	RP	41.0	53.6	19.6	34.1
Aaron Ashby	4	MIL	AAA	26	Hybrid	84.0	56.3	22.0	34.3
Aaron Brooks	5	OAK	AAA	34	Hybrid	67.2	58.5	9.3	49.2
Aaron Brown	6	HOU	AA	25	Hybrid	92.0	59.6	12.9	46.7
Aaron Brown	7	HOU	AAA	25	SP	22.0	47.8	16.7	31.1
Aaron Davenport	8	CLE	AA	23	SP	142.1	51.5	13.0	38.5
Aaron McGarity	9	CHW	AAA	29	RP	65.0	59.5	14.8	44.7
Aaron Munson	10	TOR	A	22	RP	29.2	65.8	15.5	50.4
Aaron Munson	11	TOR	High-A	22	RP	23.0	59.8	18.7	41.1
Aaron Nixon	12	NYY	A	22	RP	61.2	58.5	20.8	37.7
Aaron Perry	13	CHC	High-A	25	RP	30.1	62.6	11.7	50.9
Aaron Rozek	14	MIN	AAA	28	SP	52.0	50.8	12.1	38.7
Aaron Rozek	15	MIN	AA	28	RP	70.0	60.0	8.2	51.8
Aaron Rund	16	MIL	High-A	25	RP	57.0	60.6	11.3	49.3
Aaron Sanchez	17	TOR	AAA	31	SP	61.1	51.6	23.6	28.0
Aaron Shortridge	18	PIT	AAA	27	Hybrid	48.2	49.4	14.6	34.8
Abdiel Mendoza	19	TOR	AA	25	RP	82.0	57.1	13.8	43.3
Abel Brito	20	CLE	A	23	RP	38.0	47.1	25.7	21.4
Abel Mercedes	21	HOU	A	22	RP	45.1	55.5	28.7	26.8
Abis Prado	22	BOS	DSL	17	SP	31.2	49.5	23.9	25.6
Abraham Gaitan	23	CIN	CPX	20	RP	23.0	41.3	11.1	30.2
Abraham Parra	24	SDP	CPX	18	Hybrid	35.2	51.6	21.1	30.6
Adam Bates	25	BOS	CPX	18	SP	36.1	52.3	13.9	38.4
Adam Boucher	26	TBR	A	22	RP	40.1	65.6	14.1	51.4
Adam Kloffenstein	27	STL	AAA	23	SP	89.1	57.0	19.1	37.9
Adam Kolarek	28	LAA	AAA	35	RP	31.0	56.1	19.0	37.0
Adam Laskey	29	MIA	AA	26	RP	81.1	63.7	11.0	52.7
Adam Leverett	30	TBR	AA	25	SP	89.2	51.9	10.3	41.5
Adam Macko	31	TOR	AA	23	SP	81.1	56.0	14.6	41.4
Adam Maier	32	ATL	High-A	22	SP	26.2	49.9	13.7	36.3
Adam Maier	33	ATL	A	22	SP	56.2	64.8	9.8	55.0
Adam Mazur	34	SDP	AA	23	SP	32.1	58.7	5.5	53.2
Adam Mazur	35	MIA	AAA	23	SP	38.0	57.9	12.8	45.1
Adam Mazur	36	SDP	AAA	23	SP	23.0	60.6	12.3	48.3
Adam Oller	37	CLE	AAA	29	Hybrid	27.2	52.7	23.2	29.5
Adam Oller	38	MIA	AAA	29	Hybrid	25.0	69.0	10.3	58.8
Adam Plutko	39	MIN	AAA	32	SP	60.0	54.3	10.5	43.8
Adam Seminaris	40	MIL	AA	25	RP	74.2	60.7	10.3	50.4
Adam Serwinowski	41	CIN	A	20	SP	85.2	60.3	15.6	44.7
Adam Shoemaker	42	ATL	A	21	RP	69.2	54.7	21.9	32.8
Adam Smith	43	BOS	High-A	24	RP	58.2	53.4	15.7	37.7
Adam Tulloch	44	CLE	High-A	23	RP	60.0	56.3	18.7	37.7
Adam Wolf	45	DET	AA	27	RP	23.2	55.0	20.1	34.9
Adel Dilone	46	ATL	A	23	RP	52.2	62.5	15.2	47.3
Adilson Peralta	47	PHI	CPX	21	RP	31.2	59.4	18.4	41.1
Adisyn Coffey	48	CHW	AAA	25	RP	35.1	58.9	12.7	46.1
Adler Cecil	49	SDP	CPX	19	RP	22.2	46.0	34.9	11.1
Adolfo Oviedo	50	PIT	DSL	19	Hybrid	41.1	63.8	10.5	53.3
Adonis Medina	51	WSN	AAA	27	RP	64.2	62.7	16.3	46.4
		Team	Level	Age	SP-RP	IP	Ideal Outcome	Negative Outcome	IO – NO