DoubleScoop Baseball

2025 Modeled Pitcher Outcomes

Evaluate MiLB pitching prospects through custom outcome-based metrics including strikeouts, ground balls, infield flies, barrels allowed, walks, and overall contact management. Designed to help identify breakout dynasty and fantasy baseball arms before the market catches up.

Notes

  • Ideal Outcomes: Measures positive pitcher outcomes per batter faced using strikeouts, ground balls, and infield fly balls. These are generally more ideal batted ball events that help limit high run-scoring opportunities.
  • Negative Outcomes: Measures damaging pitcher outcomes per batter faced using walks, HBP, intentional walks, and a custom modeled barrel rate designed to estimate damaging contact allowed. Lower percentages are better.
  • Ideal Minus Negative: Compares positive pitcher outcomes against damaging outcomes by subtracting Poor Outcomes from Ideal Outcomes. Higher values indicate pitchers generating more favorable outcomes relative to damaging ones.

Modeled Pitcher Outcome Benchmarks

Benchmarks derived from 2024–2025 MiLB seasons using pitchers with a minimum of 20 innings pitched.

MetricAveragePlusElite
Ideal Outcome≥56%≥59.5%≥65.5%
Negative Outcome≤16%≤12.5%≤8.5%
IO – Negative Outcome≥40%≥46%≥55%

2025 Modeled Pitcher Outcomes