2025 Modeled Pitcher Outcomes

Evaluate MiLB pitching prospects through custom outcome-based metrics including strikeouts, ground balls, infield flies, barrels allowed, walks, and overall contact management. Designed to help identify breakout dynasty and fantasy baseball arms before the market catches up.

Notes

Ideal Outcomes: Measures positive pitcher outcomes per batter faced using strikeouts, ground balls, and infield fly balls. These are generally more ideal batted ball events that help limit high run-scoring opportunities.
Negative Outcomes: Measures damaging pitcher outcomes per batter faced using walks, HBP, intentional walks, and a custom modeled barrel rate designed to estimate damaging contact allowed. Lower percentages are better.
Ideal Minus Negative: Compares positive pitcher outcomes against damaging outcomes by subtracting Poor Outcomes from Ideal Outcomes. Higher values indicate pitchers generating more favorable outcomes relative to damaging ones.

Modeled Pitcher Outcome Benchmarks

Benchmarks derived from 2024–2025 MiLB seasons using pitchers with a minimum of 20 innings pitched.

Metric	Average	Plus	Elite
Ideal Outcome	≥56%	≥59.5%	≥65.5%
Negative Outcome	≤16%	≤12.5%	≤8.5%
Ideal – Negative Outcome	≥40%	≥46%	≥55%

2025 Modeled Pitcher Outcomes

Team :

Level :

Age :

SP-RP :

IP :

Ideal Outcome :

Negative Outcome :

IO – NO :

wdt_ID	Name	Team	Level	Age	SP-RP	IP	Ideal Outcome	Negative Outcome	IO – NO
2	A.J. Block	LAA	High-A	27	RP	29.2	68.7	10.6	58.1
3	A.J. Block	LAA	AA	27	RP	21.1	55.0	22.7	32.3
4	A.J. Causey	KCR	High-A	22	RP	40.1	63.1	8.3	54.8
5	A.J. Causey	KCR	AA	22	RP	33.0	56.6	7.1	49.5
6	A.J. Puckett	CHC	AA	30	RP	51.0	60.2	12.7	47.5
7	A.J. Wilson	PHI	A	24	RP	34.2	55.7	23.7	32.0
8	Aaron Brooks	OAK	AAA	35	SP	76.1	60.4	18.4	42.0
9	Aaron Brown	HOU	AAA	26	SP	72.1	42.3	24.5	17.8
10	Aaron Combs	PHI	High-A	23	SP	32.1	53.3	21.3	32.0
11	Aaron Davenport	CLE	AA	24	SP	40.2	56.3	12.7	43.6
12	Aaron Davenport	CLE	AAA	24	SP	93.0	49.3	19.7	29.6
13	Aaron Munson	TOR	High-A	23	RP	48.0	57.2	9.3	47.9
14	Aaron Rozek	MIN	AA	29	Hybrid	79.0	55.6	11.7	43.9
15	Aaron Rozek	MIN	AAA	29	RP	30.0	52.1	20.1	32.0
16	Aaron Rund	MIL	High-A	26	RP	46.0	54.6	15.8	38.8
17	Aaron Wilkerson	CIN	AAA	36	SP	95.0	52.1	12.5	39.5
18	Aaron Wilkerson	STL	AAA	36	SP	57.2	46.7	12.2	34.4
19	Abdiel Mendoza	MIL	AA	26	RP	81.1	62.0	11.8	50.1
20	Abel Fuerte	ARI	CPX	20	RP	22.0	66.2	14.7	51.4
21	Abel Mercedes	HOU	A	23	RP	41.1	55.0	29.1	25.8
22	Abner Meza	NYM	DSL	18	SP	27.0	59.5	8.8	50.7
23	Abraham Gaitan	CIN	CPX	21	RP	32.0	60.4	15.0	45.4
24	Abraham Negrin	CLE	DSL	19	RP	29.0	53.6	14.8	38.8
25	Abraham Parra	SDP	A	19	Hybrid	81.2	56.0	15.0	40.9
26	Abraham Utrera	SFG	DSL	20	RP	24.0	51.5	22.1	29.4
27	Accimias Morales	LAD	CPX	20	RP	25.0	57.0	17.2	39.9
28	Adam Bates	BOS	A	19	RP	80.1	45.9	20.4	25.5
29	Adam Boucher	TBR	High-A	23	RP	40.0	48.5	20.1	28.4
30	Adam Conrad	SDP	A	22	RP	62.0	48.6	21.1	27.5
31	Adam Kloffenstein	TOR	AAA	24	SP	82.0	54.4	22.4	31.9
32	Adam Laskey	MIA	AA	27	SP	52.2	67.2	7.8	59.4
33	Adam Laskey	MIA	AAA	27	Hybrid	32.2	49.6	23.6	26.0
34	Adam Macko	TOR	AAA	24	Hybrid	64.0	51.7	17.1	34.6
35	Adam Maier	ATL	High-A	23	SP	95.1	54.0	16.7	37.3
36	Adam Mazur	MIA	AAA	24	SP	107.1	53.0	17.1	35.9
37	Adam Plutko	CIN	AAA	33	SP	98.2	48.5	13.9	34.6
38	Adam Seminaris	SEA	AA	26	SP	125.1	59.6	8.4	51.2
39	Adam Serwinowski	LAD	High-A	21	SP	34.1	60.6	16.1	44.5
40	Adam Serwinowski	CIN	High-A	21	SP	74.1	54.8	18.9	35.9
41	Adam Shoemaker	ATL	A	22	RP	31.0	57.6	21.0	36.6
42	Adam Smith	BOS	High-A	25	RP	73.1	56.5	13.7	42.8
43	Adam Tulloch	CLE	High-A	24	RP	27.2	57.3	15.4	41.9
44	Adam Tulloch	CLE	AA	24	RP	29.0	47.5	20.4	27.1
45	Adilson Peralta	PHI	A	22	RP	51.1	48.9	15.9	33.1
46	Adisyn Coffey	CHW	AAA	26	RP	39.2	56.4	23.7	32.7
47	Adolfo Oviedo	PIT	A	20	RP	53.2	56.2	14.1	42.1
48	Adonis Medina	SEA	AAA	28	RP	34.0	58.9	16.5	42.4
49	Adonis Medina	PHI	AAA	28	Hybrid	31.2	54.3	21.4	33.0
50	Adonis Villavicencio	TEX	High-A	24	RP	48.1	55.8	21.8	34.0
51	Adonys Perez	ARI	A	21	Hybrid	83.0	56.3	15.8	40.5
		Team	Level	Age	SP-RP	IP	Ideal Outcome	Negative Outcome	IO – NO