2026 Modeled Pitcher Outcomes

Evaluate MiLB pitching prospects through custom outcome-based metrics including strikeouts, ground balls, infield flies, barrels allowed, walks, and overall contact management. Designed to help identify breakout dynasty and fantasy baseball arms before the market catches up.

Notes

Ideal Outcomes: Measures positive pitcher outcomes per batter faced using strikeouts, ground balls, and infield fly balls. These are generally more ideal batted ball events that help limit high run-scoring opportunities.
Negative Outcomes: Measures damaging pitcher outcomes per batter faced using walks, HBP, intentional walks, and a custom modeled barrel rate designed to estimate damaging contact allowed. Lower percentages are better.
Ideal Minus Negative: Compares positive pitcher outcomes against damaging outcomes by subtracting Poor Outcomes from Ideal Outcomes. Higher values indicate pitchers generating more favorable outcomes relative to damaging ones.

Modeled Pitcher Outcome Benchmarks

Benchmarks derived from 2024–2025 MiLB seasons using pitchers with a minimum of 20 innings pitched.

Metric	Average	Plus	Elite
Ideal Outcome	≥56%	≥59.5%	≥65.5%
Negative Outcome	≤16%	≤12.5%	≤8.5%
Ideal – Negative Outcome	≥40%	≥46%	≥55%

2026 Modeled Pitcher Outcomes

Team :

Level :

Age :

SP-RP :

IP :

Ideal Outcome :

Negative Outcome :

IO – NO :

wdt_ID	Name	Team	Level	Age	SP-RP	IP	Ideal Outcome	Negative Outcome	IO – NO
2	Erasmo Ramirez	COL	AAA	36	Hybrid	31.0	45.3	19.9	25.4
3	Casey Lawrence	SEA	AAA	38	SP	103.1	56.3	9.9	46.4
4	Vince Velasquez	CHC	AAA	34	Hybrid	33.2	51.3	22.4	28.9
5	Aaron Sanchez	KCR	AAA	33	SP	42.0	47.7	24.3	23.4
6	John Brebbia	MIN	AAA	36	RP	20.1	54.8	17.3	37.5
7	Michael Kelly	OAK	AAA	33	RP	25.1	56.3	13.6	42.7
8	Joe Ross	ARI	AAA	33	RP	21.0	52.9	18.0	34.9
9	Michael Fulmer	SFG	AAA	33	RP	33.0	53.9	14.0	39.9
10	Jesse Hahn	TOR	AAA	36	RP	21.2	59.4	23.6	35.8
11	Matt Bowman	MIN	AAA	35	RP	21.1	64.7	11.2	53.5
12	Carl Edwards Jr.	DET	AAA	34	RP	20.2	52.3	25.6	26.7
13	Dietrich Enns	BAL	AAA	35	RP	20.0	49.9	26.8	23.1
14	Ty Blach	CHC	AAA	35	Hybrid	47.1	54.0	16.1	37.8
15	Lou Trivino III	PHI	AAA	34	RP	28.1	63.2	10.9	52.3
16	Trevor Gott	WSN	AAA	33	RP	33.0	51.8	17.5	34.2
17	Austin Voth	TOR	AAA	34	SP	31.0	51.1	12.9	38.2
18	Keynan Middleton	LAD	AAA	32	RP	28.0	51.2	17.1	34.1
19	Marco Gonzales	SDP	AAA	34	SP	47.1	51.9	15.6	36.3
20	Erick Mejia	WSN	AA	31	RP	24.0	59.9	16.1	43.8
21	Wander Suero	OAK	AAA	34	RP	32.0	50.0	16.9	33.1
22	Cam Booser	TBR	AAA	34	RP	20.0	66.5	9.9	56.5
23	Brandon Leibrandt	CIN	AAA	33	SP	67.1	48.9	15.1	33.7
24	Scott Blewett	STL	AAA	30	RP	44.1	58.4	14.9	43.5
25	Austin Gomber	TEX	AAA	32	SP	33.2	58.8	13.6	45.2
26	Austin Gomber	ATL	AAA	32	SP	36.0	50.2	19.1	31.1
27	Cam Hill	TBR	AAA	32	RP	36.2	55.3	16.6	38.7
28	Elieser Hernandez	ATL	AAA	31	Hybrid	74.1	51.3	15.1	36.2
29	Tyler Beede	CHC	AAA	33	RP	22.2	44.1	22.6	21.5
30	Domingo Acevedo	COL	AAA	32	SP	28.1	54.4	17.2	37.1
31	Thomas Pannone	MIL	AAA	32	SP	60.1	58.0	12.6	45.4
32	Javy Guerra	ATL	AAA	30	RP	25.1	48.7	24.3	24.4
33	Daniel Duarte	NYM	AAA	29	RP	28.0	53.6	18.6	35.0
34	Tanner Rainey	DET	AAA	33	RP	34.2	57.0	17.2	39.8
35	Jose Cuas	KCR	AAA	32	RP	32.2	55.9	17.4	38.5
36	Drew Smith	MIN	AAA	32	RP	24.2	46.0	11.5	34.5
37	Patrick Weigel	COL	AAA	31	RP	26.2	48.9	27.7	21.1
38	Tayler Saucedo	LAA	AAA	33	RP	30.2	60.9	21.6	39.3
39	Tyler Gilbert	CHW	AAA	32	RP	23.1	64.6	14.1	50.5
40	Anthony Misiewicz	CIN	AAA	31	RP	30.2	57.0	14.3	42.7
41	Carson Fulmer	PIT	AAA	32	RP	34.0	53.6	16.4	37.1
42	Carson Fulmer	SEA	AAA	32	SP	23.0	61.0	15.1	45.9
43	Jacob Waguespack	MIL	AAA	32	RP	21.2	58.2	18.2	40.0
44	Josh Sborz	TEX	AAA	32	RP	25.2	52.2	24.9	27.3
45	Scott Effross	DET	AAA	32	RP	29.2	54.2	14.3	40.0
46	Jose Urquidy	PIT	AAA	31	SP	66.2	59.0	10.8	48.2
47	Junior Fernandez	MIL	AAA	29	RP	29.0	66.9	15.9	51.0
48	Logan Allen	LAD	AAA	29	SP	53.1	53.0	17.4	35.7
49	Kolby Allard	CLE	AAA	28	Hybrid	30.2	58.4	11.5	46.9
50	Pedro Avila	CLE	AAA	29	SP	60.0	52.3	21.9	30.4
51	Beau Burrows	PIT	AAA	29	RP	36.0	46.9	18.0	28.9
		Team	Level	Age	SP-RP	IP	Ideal Outcome	Negative Outcome	IO – NO