Prospect barrel rates are estimated for all minor league players during the 2024 and 2025 season. All barrel metrics are modeled and are not based off individual batted ball events.
Notes
- Barrel metrics are modeled and not based off of individual batted ball events
- Barrels/AB accounts for estimated Barrel % for all ABs, not just balls in play
- Average modeled barrel rate by league:
- AAA – 7.5%
- AA – 5.2%
- A+ – 5.0%
- A – 4.2%
- CPX – 3.8%
- DSL – 3.2%
Model Validity
- Different models were tested using 2023 and 2024 season data (~650 rows of data). The modeled barrel rate was more highly correlated to actual barrel rates vs HR/FB.
- Estimated barrel rate correlation to actual barrel rates: .889
- HR/FB correlation to actual barrel rate: .853
- Average absolute difference of actual barrel rates and modeled barrel rates was 1.6%
- Sample of ~100+ AAA players taken in July 2025 has shown again that modeled barrel rates is more highly correlated to actual barrel rates than HR/FB
- Estimated barrel rate correlation to actual barrel rate: .741
- HR/FB correlation to actual barrel rate: .684
- Average absolute difference of actual barrel rates and modeled barrel rates was 2.4%