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Tag: Will Warren

Breakout Dynasty Targets – June
June 26, 2025

The last dynasty breakout article in April dived into early dynasty breakout targets like Ben Rice, Tyler Soderstrom, Jonathan Aranda, Jacob Wilson, and more. Now, as the 2025 campaign pushes past the halfway mark, it is time to revisit more dynasty breakouts.

This list focuses on current MLB players who have taken tangible steps forward in their development and are positioned to breakout and have dynasty league relevance.

Hitters

Evan Carter

Carter has been one of the few bright spots for the Texas Rangers this season. After recovering from some back issues and and opening the season in the minors, he’s now rounding into form. Among Rangers hitters with 90+ plate appearances, Carter currently leads the team in wRC+ (128), wOBA (.352), and OPS (.797).

While Carter didn’t light up the minors earlier in 2025, there are notable changes in his approach at the Major League level through his first 28 games this season

The biggest change is Carter’s newfound aggressiveness at the plate. According to Baseball Savant, the MLB average swing rate is 47.3%. In 2023 and 2024, Carter’s swing rates sat well below that mark at just 34.5% and 38.3%, respectively. But in 2025, he has bumped it up to 44.4%, approaching league average.

Being overly passive can cause good hitters to miss out on pitches they can hit early in counts. It can also lead to deeper counts, increasing both strikeouts and walks. Carter’s increase in z-swing rate appears to be paying off: his strikeout rate has dropped from 26.5% in 2024 to just 17% so far in 2025.

Another big development is his improved quality of contact. Carter’s barrel rate has risen to 10.4%, up from 5.9% last year. He flashed similar pop in a small sample back in 2023, the year he became a postseason hero for the Rangers. This season, he is combining a career-low strikeout rate, double-digit barrel percentage, and more aggression in the box.

At just 22 years old, our DoubleScoop tool grades project Carter to keep taking steps forward. His current dynasty tool grades are as follows:

One possible fantasy comp is an outfield version of CJ Abrams, who provides a power and speed blend. Our dynasty grades expect an uptick in Carter’s tools due to his young age (22), however I expect there could be some power regression as we get a larger 2025 sample. Even with some pullback, he has the tools to be a perennial 20-20 threat.

Keep an eye on his zone swing rate (Z-Swing%). If he continues hunting strikes more aggressively, he will be better positioned to capitalize on his hit and power tools.

Miguel Vargas

Miguel Vargas has secured every day at-bats in 2025, his first full season with the White Sox. While his season-long slash line of .236/.314/.426 (108 wRC+) may not jump off the page, he’s been heating up. Since May 1, he has posted a .246/.320/.497 line with a 127 wRC+.

Vargas carries prospect pedigree, having been ranked No. 37 overall by MLB Pipeline in 2023 while with the Dodgers. Still, coming into this season, he held a career batting average under .200 through his first 171 big-league games from 2022 to 2024.

There were flashes beneath the surface in 2023 and 2024. Vargas had an above-average chase rate and pull-air percentage in both 2023 and 2024. Now in 2025, he’s showing improvements in barrel rate, average exit velocity, and zone-contact rate, positive steps toward unlocking his potential.

He has also made some subtle adjustments in the batter’s box. Per Baseball Savant, Vargas has moved back in the box, shifting from 28.5 to 30.2 inches (league average is 27.8),and has opened his stance from 1 degree to 6 degrees (league average is 11%). While minor, these tweaks may be helping him tap into more power.

While Vargas doesn’t boast elite exit velos, bat speed, or barrel numbers, he’s maximizing his raw pop with excellent pull-air rates, similar to how players like Isaac Paredes and Alex Bregman succeed. If he sustains these gains, Vargas could become a foundational piece in the middle of the White Sox lineup moving forward.

Pitchers

Will Warren

I mentioned Will Warren in our first rookie review article earlier this year, and if you haven’t yet, it’s worth a quick read as a refresher. While his surface stats (4.66 ERA and 1.33 WHIP) don’t scream breakout, there’s a lot more going on beneath the hood. Warren has a 29.4% strikeout rate backed by a 31.0% CSW%. Among starting pitchers with at least 20 innings (4+ starts), that K% ranks top 15.

A key reason for his continued ascent is how he’s diversified his pitch mix over the season:

Earlier in the year, Warren leaned heavily on his SI/SW against RHB and FF/CH against LHB. Now, he is showcasing a more refined arsenal. His best fastball remains the sinker, with above-average vertical movement and average velocity (93.1 MPH). The 4-seam averages 93.4 MPH and lacks great shape but still generates a 28.3% whiff rate. Lastly, the sweeper (3038 RPM) and curveball (2908 RPM) both feature excellent spin rates, leading to plus movement and whiff rates above 30%.

Since May, Warren has kept his walk rate below 10% every month after opening the season at 11.4% in March/April. That early command inconsistency also aligned with his worst ERA split (5.63), which improved to 4.82 in May and currently sits at 3.47 in June

The biggest weakness for Warren in 2025 has been left-handed hitters.

LHB are batting .522 against his sweeper which he throws around 18% to LHB. I’d like to see Warren adjust his approach to LHBs: lean more on the four-seam, changeup, and curveball while mixing in the sinker and sweeper as show-me offerings below 5% usage. While Stuff+ only grades his changeup at 85, lefties are hitting just .220 against it with a 26.7% whiff rate. Meanwhile, his curveball has a Stuff+ of t 115, with LHBs batting .250 and whiffing 42.9% of the time against the pitch.

He already uses a similar strategy vs. RHBs, favoring the sinker, sweeper, and four-seam while rarely throwing the changeup or curve. That said, there can be a similar case made for using the changeup and curveball as show me pitches against RHB.

Warren is breaking out in his first full MLB season. He is showing small improvements in his BB%, evolving his pitch mix, and emerging as one of the leagues upcoming K leaders. The next step is limiting damage against lefties, especially in a tough home park that plays up for LHB. Still, with top-tier swing-and-miss ability, he profiles as a potential top-50 dynasty SP with upside for more at his peak.

Michael Soroka

Michael Soroka has already experienced a career’s worth of highs and lows while still just 27. Debuting at age 20, he found immediate success in the majors, posting ERAs of 3.51, 2.68, and 3.95 in his first three seasons while making the NL All-Star team in 2019. Then came the setbacks. Soroka tore his Achilles in 2020, and re-tore the same Achilles during his comeback attempt, requiring a second surgery. In total, he missed roughly three full MLB seasons due to these injuries.

Now in 2025, in his third year back, Soroka is beginning to flash the form that once made him one of the game’s most promising young arms, despite what his 5.06 ERA might suggest. Among the biggest improvements this season:
- Career-best 4-seam and sinker velocity: 94.3 and 94.2 MPH, respectively
- Highest K% of his career at 26.5%
- BB% down to 6.3%, in line with early-career levels
- On pace for a career-best WHIP of 1.09
Another development: Soroka has scrapped his longtime slider in favor of a slurve. This new pitch brings 100 more RPM of spin, 4 additional inches of vertical break, and roughly 8 more inches of horizontal movement. It’s been effective with opposing hitters posting just a .210 wOBA against the slurve, compared to .263 wOBA against his slider in 2024.

While the surface ERA remains inflated, his 3.19 xERA indicates strong potential for positive regression. Even more compelling: his 2025 K-BB% is better than that of Paul Skenes, Max Fried, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Spencer Schwellenbach.

At 27, Soroka appears to be entering his prime. He is shaping up to be a high-floor SP with plus command and steadily improving strikeout skills with his increased velocity and new usage of his slurve. I have been targeting him across leagues, expecting a strong second half from a pitcher quietly putting it back together. A free agent after the 2025 season, he could be a dark-horse trade candidate this season which could further improve his fantasy appeal.

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June 26, 2025
Rookie Analysis & Tool Grades: May 2025
May 15, 2025

Starting a monthly article where I will dive into MLB rookies and how their 1st full season in the MLB is going. Not every rookie who debuted during the previous or current month will be covered but will cover select rookies at a time with a focus on those with significant enough playing time.

One thing I will mention throughout the article are my personal tool grades. These are Hit, Power, Discipline, and Speed for hitters, and Induced Contact, Contact Prevention, Control, and Arsenal for pitchers. These grades follow the traditional 20–80 scouting scale, where 50 represents MLB average, 20 being the lowest and 80 being the highest. I recommend checking out Fangraphs article – Scouting Explained: The 20-80 Scouting Scale | FanGraphs Baseball – or search online if wanting to understand the 20-80 scale better.

DoubleScoop Hitter Tools
- Hit – Grades player on ability to put the ball in play and quality of the contact
- Power – Grades player on their bat speed, Max EVs, and barrels
- Discipline – Grades player’s ability to control the strike zone and work walks
- Speed – Grades player’s sprint speed, aggressiveness, and their efficiency on the basepaths
DoubleScoop Pitchers Tools
- Induced Contact – Grades pitcher on ability to limit favorable hitter outcomes
- Contact Prevention – Grades pitcher’s ability to avoid hitters making contact
- Control – Grades pitcher’s ability to control their pitches in the zone
- Arsenal – Grades pitcher on the quality and randomness of their pitches
With that being covered, lets dive into the rookie tool grades and relevant comparisons.

Jasson Dominguez

Mega hyped switch-hitting prospect Jasson Dominguez was given the opening day nod to start 2025. Domínguez has been a staple of dynasty league discussions for years, as he was highly talked about all the way when he was just 16 years old. At just 22, Dominguez is at the age where he could still take a huge leap forward in his progression, making it fun to dream. Setting aside the hype, here is how his current skillset stacks up:

His hit and power tools have yet to meet the lofty expectations placed on him. His current offensive profile resembles 2024 Christopher Morel or Jack Suwinski—solid pop but streaky contact. Despite his early struggles in April, Domínguez has a high prospect pedigree and is a switch hitter that makes him a valuable long-term dynasty asset. If the hit tool develops, he could offer Springer-like production with steady counting stats in roto leagues.

Drake Baldwin

Drake Baldwin was the Braves top prospect headed into the 2025 season. With Sean Murphy sidelined to begin 2025, Baldwin seized the opportunity to start on Opening Day. Through his first 25 games, Baldwin has slashed .329/.382/.557 and is supported by strong Statcast metrics such as bat speed, hard-hit rate, squared-up %, whiff %, and more. The tool grades love what Baldwin has done in 2025 with the below grades/comps:

I’m not saying Baldwin is Jackson Merrill, but the signs are pointing towards Baldwin having the bat to be a top catcher in the league for the rest of the 2020s. The Braves signed Sean Murphy through 2028 and a club option for 2029, meaning Murphy may not hit free agency again until 2030. Should the Braves fall out of contention, it is worth throwing Murphy’s name out in trade talks to see what the return looks like and give Baldwin the chance to play every day. Baldwin is a must-own in dynasty leagues and 2-catcher leagues and would keep an eye on what the Braves do throughout the season as once he is an everyday player there may be no looking back.

Jake Mangum

70 Hit – 35 Power – 50 Discipline – 75 Speed

Mangum ranks 4th in fWAR among rookie hitters, despite playing nearly half as many games as the other WAR leaders. Unlike most rookies, Mangum is already 29 years old and likely does not have a ton of room for physical growth. FanGraphs grades Mangum’s tools as follows: Hit – 50/60, Raw Power – 40/40, Speed – 55/55. With the small 2025 sample, Mangum’s Hit and Speed tools are grading favorably:

His current 9.6% strikeout rate is well below his 17% mark from AAA over the past two years, suggesting likely regression in his Hit tool. With every day at bats over a full season, I could see Mangum as a .270 to 290 hitter with 25+ steal upside with single digit home runs. With some expected regression, I compare his tools similarly to Sal Frelick. Like Frelick, Mangum’s value is driven by is his contact ability and speed rather than power, making him a stronger asset in Roto leagues with batting average and stolen bases categories than points formats. Mangum is working his way back from a groin injury, and upon his return, he’ll face competition for playing time among Rays outfielders like Josh Lowe, Chandler Simpson, Christopher Morel, and Kameron Misner.

Luisangel Acuña

Luisangel Acuña currently ranks 7th among rookie fWAR leaders. As the younger brother of superstar Ronald Acuña, Luisangel does not possess the same elite power-speed combination. In fact, this year Luisangel has yet to produce any homeruns or barrels after hitting 3 homeruns with a 9%-barrel rate in a brief 2024 MLB callup. Speed is his standout tool, and so far, it’s the only one grading as elite, while the rest of his skillset remains closer to league average. While he isn’t completely devoid of power, his bat profiles more for single-digit home runs, with 30+ stolen bases being the real fantasy appeal. A good comp when trying to place his long-term outlook would be Andres Giménez. Like Giménez, Acuña offers strong contact skills and high-end speed but lacks the power upside needed for premium fantasy output in all formats.

The challenge with speed-first prospects is that if Acuña’s bat struggles, he could lose playing time—or worse, face a demotion. If he continues to develop and is able to tap into tap into more power in future seasons, I could see Acuna producing 15/30 (HR/SBs) during a peak year.

Trey Sweeney

Sweeney, 25, is playing SS every day for the AL Central leading Tigers. Thanks to his consistent playing time, Sweeney currently leads all rookie hitters in fWAR (0.8). Sweeney lacks standout tools, but he has around average tools across the board. The 2025 tool grades on Sweeney are below:

When comparing his tools to 2024 data, he matched well with another left-handed hitting middle infielder, Gavin Lux. Like Lux, Sweeney has a balanced profile and while not being a superstar, can help contribute in deeper leagues or DCs where starters/compilers are useful.

Shane Smith

At 25, Smith has been one of the few bright spots for the White Sox this season, currently leading all rookie pitchers in fWAR. Smith features a five-pitch mix—four-seam fastball, changeup, slider, curveball, and sinker—that allows him to keep hitters off balance. A similar comp looking at other 2025 pitcher tools is Casey Mize. Like Mize, Smith relies on above average control and a deep arsenal rather than overpowering stuff.

Smith looks like a legitimate piece of the White Sox’s future rotation and long-term could be a solid #3 behind top prospects Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith. I recommend using Smith in 2025 in good matchups and be mindful wins will be limited and that he is better served in QS leagues. As the White Sox rebuild, Smith should benefit from better lineups/defense in the future.

AJ Smith-Shawver

Despite debuting in 2023 at just 20 years old, Smith-Shawver retains rookie eligibility in 2025 and still has time to refine his skills at 22. Smith-Shawver currently ranks 6th among rookie pitchers in fWAR and appears poised to be a long-term fixture in the Braves rotation. His arsenal includes a four-seam fastball, splitter, curveball, and slider, with the splitter and curveball boasting whiff rates above 40% in 2025.

Like Kevin Gausman, Smith-Shawver leans on his splitter to generate whiffs, but his command remains a work in progress. If he sharpens his control, he could elevate from a projected mid-rotation arm to a reliable fantasy SP2. Monitor Smith-Shawver’s walk rate, if he brings his BB% down, his upside rises.

Will Warren

Entering 2025 as the Yankees’ fifth-ranked prospect, Warren has secured a rotation spot following injuries to Gerrit Cole, Luis Gil, JT Brubaker, and Marcus Stroman. He has earned his stay and currently ranks 5^th among rookie pitchers in fWAR with a 4.75 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. Comparing Warren’s 2025 tool grades to 2024 data, he closely aligns with Tylor Megill.

His arsenal includes a four-seam fastball, sweeper, sinker, and changeup, with the sinker and sweeper being his primary weapons against righties, while he relies on the four-seam and changeup versus lefties. Baseball Savant is also tracking a new Curveball which he is throwing around 5% of the time. Warren’s curveball has generated a 54.5% whiff rate this season, but it is unclear whether this represents a refined offering or inconsistencies in his sweeper movement. If he fully develops it—or adds a true vertical breaking pitch—he could elevate his effectiveness beyond his current mid-rotation profile.

Warren should be part of the Yankees rotation for the rest of the season and future seasons as a mid/late rotation arm. If he can develop a curveball/deathball and (or) improve on his current control (10% BB rate), Warren could unlock a new tier and push him up another level.

Jack Leiter

Entering 2025 as the Rangers’ No. 3 prospect per MLB Pipeline, Leiter secured a rotation spot out of spring training. This season, Leiter has posted a respectable 4.34 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, though his underlying metrics—19.0% strikeout rate and 11.6% walk rate—suggest room for improvement. The good news is, Leiter seems to be adjusting his pitch mix in 2025, which I called out as a much-needed change in the Surprise Rangers Spring Training article. Leiter has supplemented some of his 4-seam usage with a new sinker that he is using 19% of the time and increased his changeup usage to 13.9%. These adjustments have contributed to improvements in his induced contact and arsenal grades.

The biggest problem for Leiter is his control and ability to miss bats. His 2025 changes have at least helped to show he can be a serviceable #4 or #5 starter and eased the immediate concerns that he needs to shift to the bullpen. If Leiter refines his control or improves his contact prevention, he could unlock more upside akin to Frankie Montas/Aaron Civale. All in all, I do not see the ace upside with Leiter that came with the 2^nd overall pick. Improving either his control or contact prevention would push Leiter into the mid-rotation tier rather than a pure backend starter. Watch his K% and BB% trends closely.

Chad Patrick

A relatively unknown prospect for the Brewers, Patrick’s best minor league season came in 2024 when he posted a 2.90 ERA over 136 AAA innings at age 25. This season, Patrick has seized his opportunity in the rotation and isn’t letting go. Through his first 8 GS, Patrick has a crisp 3.19 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. Patrick is finding success with his three-fastball mix (cutter, 4-seam, sinker) while throwing his changeup (6%) and slider (5%) minimally. With this profile, Patrick does not generate a ton of swing and miss but is more focused on inducing weak contact. Patrick’s profile closely mirrors 2024 Javier Assad and Michael Lorenzen—pitchers who rely on weak contact over strikeouts.

Patrick’s low strikeout rate means his success will depend heavily on BABIP and defensive support. If his luck turns, expect some volatility in ERA and WHIP. Keep in mind Javier Assad and Michael Lorenzon have had runs of success in the same division. Patrick fits best as a matchup-dependent streamer rather than a set-and-forget fantasy starter.

Let us know on X @2BScoopBaseball if you have any feedback, questions, or would like to see any other players analyzed.
May 15, 2025