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Tag: Rookie Analysis

Rookie Analysis & Tool Grades: November 2025
November 13, 2025

After missing the October update, we are back with the November Rookie Review and continuing our look at the 2025 rookie class. This month is a hitters focused breakdown that highlights tool grades, player comps, and long-term outlooks for bats like Roman Anthony, Jakob Marsee, Colson Montgomery, and other 2025 rookies.

I will follow up with another review in December to close out the year, so feel free to shout out any rookies I have not covered yet. Links to all previous Rookie Reviews can be found below.
Now let’s dive in!

Roman Anthony

Roman Anthony was the #1 prospect headed into the season by MLB pipeline. He started the season in Triple-A and was called up on June 9^th. Anthony played 71 games, slashing .292/.396/.463, before having to be shut down in September for the rest of the season due to an oblique injury.

In just under half of a season, Anthony had strong underlying metrics with great quality of contact metrics as well as a low chase rate which supports his high BB rates.

His 94.5 average EV in 2025 ranks him in the top 5 with hitters with more than 100 batted ball events in 2025 along with Oneil Cruz, Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Yordan Alvarez. His 60.3% hard-hit rate is also one of the highest of the Statcast era, only behind Aaron Judge (min. 300 PA).

Dynasty Tool Grades

Roman Anthony has great player comps on his dynasty tool grades at an early age, drawing comparisons to sluggers like Kyle Schwarber, Byron Buxton, among others.

His combination of plus-plus power and plus discipline gives him a toolset that is proven to work at the MLB level. I would not be surprised to see his Hit tool take another step forward as he continues to adjust to the MLB level.

Fantasy Outlook

At his young age he has plenty of time to improve his game and it’s all about staying on the field. He is an All-Star caliber outfielder for the Red Sox who can hit 30+ HR yearly with strong OBPs. Buy-in on Anthony now where you can!

Jakob Marsee

Jakob Marsee is one of the more underrated rookie breakouts of the 2025 season. He impressed slashing .292/.363/.478 with 5 HR and 14 SBs in 55 games. This works out to a 15/40 HR/SB pace over 162 games. From the time Marsee debuted on August 1st through the end of the season, Marsee led all rookies in fWAR at 2.2, ahead of Colson Montgomery (1.9), Daylen Lile (1.8), and Nick Kurtz (1.6).

Marsee has solid underlying data to back up his production. He posted better than average squared up %, chase %, and whiff % pointing to strong Hit tool. While never known for his power, he did enjoy a power surge in 2025 with 19 HRs across Triple-A and the MLB, the most of his professional career. His max EV of 111.1 and 70.5 mph average bat speed point to average raw power, but that could play up given his strong hit tool if he can start pulling the ball in the air more.

Dynasty Tool Grades

Below is a look at our custom dynasty tool grades as well as other players with similar skill profiles. He has an excellent 55-game sample in 2025, though there could be some skill regression with more sample size.

Overall Marsee showed average to above average tools across the board which very few players are able to showcase making Marsee an important name to know for 2026.

Fantasy Outlook

Put Marsee on your watchlist and buy him where you can. His mix of all-around tools make him an exciting fantasy option and is someone I will be targeting in 2026 drafts/auction. Marsee has all-star potential and will be a strong source of runs and stolen bases in 2026 batting at the top of the Marlins improving lineup.

Colson Montgomery

Colson Montgomery, a former first round pick by the White Sox in 2021, went on a power surge after his callup. In his first 71 games he hit 21 homeruns with 55 RBIs, slashing .239/.311/.529. He has been a bright spot in the White Sox rebuild that is desperately searching for core parts of its future.

Montgomery has shown glimpses of his raw power in the minors at Triple-A, posting max EVs of 113.8 and 115.3 in 2024 and 2025. This power though has come with consistent high K-rates in the upper minors with a 28.6% K -rate in Triple-A in 2024 and 33.0% in Triple-A in 2025.

Dynasty Tool Grades

Montgomery’s stand out tool is his power. He has hit tool concerns; however, he has strong defense will help him stay in the lineup throughout any prolonged slumps.

Montgomery has a package showcasing elite bat speed from the left-side. This elite bat speed gives Montgomery strong power potential similar to Austin Riley, Eugenio Suarez, and Riley Greene, though there will be plenty of strikeouts.

Fantasy Outlook

Montgomery is just 23 years old, has elite bat speed, and plays solid defense at a premium position which in sum should lead to strong yearly homerun totals. He has batting average risk and could find himself turn into a streaky hitter given the swing and miss, but when things click, he can help carry a team. Montgomery is currently ranked as the #37 shortstop on our dynasty rankings and will find himself climbing up our rankings in our next update.

Daylen Lile

Daylen Lile was not on many prospect lists that I saw before the 2025 season, but you would never have known based on his rookie year. In 91 games he slashed .299/.347/.498 with 9 HRs and 8 SBs. He was also able to improve as the year went on and was a huge help to fantasy managers in late 2025.

From August to the end of the season there weren’t many better hitters than Lile. His 178 wRC+ was in the top 10 hitters in the MLB during that time (Min. 100 PA).

While it’s unrealistic to expect this level of production to continue, he has solidified his spot in the Nationals plans for the near future.

Dynasty Tool Grades

Lile’s best tool is his hit tool (60), with his whiff (18.9%) and k-rates (16.0%) better than league average. His player tool comps are below and include hitters like Jake Meyers and Evan Carter.

He currently profiles as a 12-15 homerun hitter with potential who could put up 20 during a peak year. His all-around skills and locked in playing time for the rebuilding nationals give him a high floor to be a fantasy contributor, but the lack of power will cap his upside.

Fantasy Outlook

Lile is useful young bat in fantasy leagues with double digit homerun and steal ability. His late season surge is likely to inflate his price going into draft season and could even be a sell high in dynasty leagues during the offseason. In redraft leagues be wary of the price as draft season gets closer. If Lile goes early, keep an eye on players like Jake Meyers, Austin Martin, and Evan Carter who may be able to provide similar skill profiles at lower draft prices.

Kyle Teel

Teel, part of the Crochet trade, held his own in his 2025 debut slashing .273/.375/.411 with 8 HRs and 3 SBs over a half season sample size (78 games). His success was mostly against RHP and showed drastic splits in his 78 games.

With Edgar Quero, a switch-hitting catcher on the White Sox roster, he could continue to find himself on the bench against left-handed pitchers.

Dynasty Tool Grades

His dynasty tool grade comps relate to other catchers such as Bo Naylor and Joey Bart. There is a mix of above-average power and plus discipline which can help make up for the 45 hit tool. A common trend on this list (Bryan Reynolds the exception) is that these players are platoon roles.

Fantasy Outlook

Teel should be a part of the White Sox lineup given his success against RHP as he splits time between catcher and DH (made 1 appearance in LF in 2025). He is currently ranked as our #17 dynasty catcher and can be left off most 12-man rosters with one catcher. In two catcher leagues Teel serves as a solid C2 option, just keep in mind he is likely limited to a strong side platoon role.

Dillon Dingler

Dillon Dingler stepped into a regular catching role for Detroit in 2025 and rewarded the Tigers with a Gold Glove and steady two-way production. His defense was his biggest strength and his offense provided enough impact to keep him in the lineup most days.

What really stood out were his extreme splits, both against LHP and on the road. Dingler crushed lefties with an OPS above .900 but had an OPS below .700 against RHP. His biggest weakness against RHP came on breaking balls where he had a 34.7% whiff rate and a .225 wOBA. He also showed a tendency to swing at RHP sweepers and other breaking balls outside the zone.

This is only one year of data, so these splits should not be weighed too heavily. He posted strong results away from Comerica Park and had real issues hitting at home. It will be worth watching if that trend continues in 2026.

Dynasty Tool Grades

Dingler’s tool grades line up with profiles similar to Josh Jung and James McCann. He does not offer a plus offensive tool, but he brings passable Hit/Power tools for the catcher position. An increase in his Power or Discipline could help elevate his offensive profile.

Overall, his strong defensive value mixed with his average offensive profile should help him keep the starting role in Detroit for the near future.

Fantasy Outlook

Dingler is solidified as the Tigers’ starting catcher which provides fantasy usefulness in two catcher formats. He is currently ranked as our #27 dynasty catcher, showing he can be swapped out for another option if managers looking for a 2026 in-season upgrade.

Nathan Lukes

Nathan Lukes is in his age-30 rookie season and made an impact on a Blue Jays team that reached the World Series. He played 135 games and finished around a league-average with a 103 wRC+. Lukes kept both his K-rate and whiff rate under 15%, but outside of that he did not show many standout underlying metrics in 2025.

His value came from being in the lineup consistently with 438 PAs (385 of those against RHP). He also provided steady run production with 55 runs and 65 RBI. Playing time could be harder to come by in 2026 depending on what direction the Blue Jays choose to go.

Dynasty Tool Grades

Lukes is a contact-first hitter with a plus hit tool, graded at 70. That mark is likely a bit inflated since most of his matchups came against right-handed pitching.

Based on his profile, the closest matches are outfielders Miguel Andujar and Alex Call. Entering his age-31 season, there is not much room for additional growth in either the hit or power tool, although he could continue to refine his approach.

Fantasy Outlook

Lukes is already entering his age-31 season and lacks the power and speed needed to be a true fantasy asset. His value is tied directly to everyday playing time. He is best viewed as a bench option in deep formats such as Draft Champions or AL-only leagues, where you hope he holds a similar role to last year.

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November 13, 2025
Rookie Analysis & Tool Grades: August 2025
August 31, 2025

Rookie pitchers have dominated headlines in recent weeks with Nolan McLean proving himself on the big stage and top prospects Jonah Tong, Peyton Tolle, and Bubba Chandler making their MLB debuts. Some of these arms will get their own rookie spotlights later in the season, assuming they stay up and rack up enough innings.

In this month’s Rookie Review article, we’re shifting focus to a group of rookie hitters who have carved out meaningful roles on their respective teams. These are names we haven’t covered yet this season, and each brings a distinct profile worth tracking.

If you missed our earlier rookie breakdowns, you can catch up below:

– May Rookie Analysis & Grades

– June Rookie Analysis & Grades

– July Rookie Analysis & Grades

Now let’s dive in!

Matt Shaw

Matt Shaw, a 2023 first-round pick out of Maryland, earned his way onto the Cubs’ Opening Day roster after a strong showing in the minors and an impressive 2025 spring training. But since cracking the big leagues, it’s been a rocky road for the former top prospect. He slashed just .172/.294/.241 in March and April, prompting a demotion to Triple-A. After re-establishing himself there, Shaw was recalled to Chicago in May.

Though he doesn’t fit the traditional third base mold at 5-foot-10 and 185 pounds, Shaw has shown he can impact the game in multiple ways. In 2024, he hit 21 home runs and stole 31 bases across 121 minor league games, while maintaining solid plate discipline with an 11.9% walk rate and 18.2% strikeout rate. His standout tools are his speed and contact ability. With an average sprint speed of 29.0 mph, he ranks in the 89th percentile per Baseball Savant and has stolen bases efficiently with over an 80% success rate this season. His 20.9% whiff rate is well below the league average of 25%, showing his ability to put bat to ball.

However, Shaw’s bat speed averages just 69.5 mph, placing him in the bottom 20th percentile among major leaguers. His exit velocity and hard-hit metrics also both sit below major league average.

Dynasty-wise, Shaw profiles similarly to Spencer Steer, with power that stems more from pulling fly balls than raw strength. If his hit tool continues to develop, he could follow a trajectory akin to Brice Turang or Andy Pages who contribute across categories and offer fantasy value.

Shaw’s combination of speed and contact skills give him a strong foundation, especially in roto formats. If the power or hit tools develop more, he could become a multi-category contributor with sneaky upside.

Chandler Simpson

Chandler Simpson made a name for himself in the minor leagues by stealing 94 bases in 2023 and an eye-popping 104 in 2024. His game is built around elite speed, and he enters every season as a favorite to lead the league in stolen bases with full playing time. Had he played a full season in 2025, Simpson might have challenged Esteury Ruiz’s for the most stolen bases for a rookie since 2000.

Simpson is no slouch with the bat either. He’s hit over .300 at every level in the Rays system and posted a sub-10% strikeout rate in the minors, showcasing an ability to consistently put the ball in play. His combination of a plus-plus hit tool and elite speed makes him one of the most unique profiles in the game today

From a dynasty perspective, Simpson compares favorably to players like Xavier Edwards, Nico Hoerner, and teammate Jake Mangum. But none of them match Simpson’s top-tier speed, which grades out as an 80 on our dynasty tool grades. Here’s how he stacks up against similar profiles.

In standard points leagues, Simpson’s lack of power limits his ceiling as he’s a near-zero in home runs and RBIs. But in category formats, he’s a potential game-changer. With the ability to lead the league in stolen bases and contribute meaningfully to batting average and runs, Simpson offers upside in the right roster build.

Defensively, the metrics haven’t been kind, but he is young, athletic, and could improve his defensive with more experience. If Simpson can become even an average defender, he should lock down every day playing time. And with that, he could not only lead the league in steals but could even contend for a batting title down the line.

Cole Young

Cole Young, a rookie middle infielder for the Seattle Mariners, officially graduated from prospect status this season. While his current slash line of .228/.317/.335 and 91 wRC+ doesn’t jump off the page, his plate discipline tells a more encouraging story. With a 10.6% walk rate and just an 18.6% strikeout rate, Young is showing he’s not overmatched by big-league pitching.

At just 21 years old, Young is developing at the major league level, and the underlying metrics suggest some untapped potential. His bat speed sits right around league average at 71.6 mph, and his bat path length is just shorter than average at 6.8 feet. What is more intriguing is his power potential. Despite not being known for his power, Young has already posted a max exit velocity of 114.1 mph and a pull air rate of 25.3%, both well above average. These traits align with several established hitters who’ve turned similar profiles into legitimate power threats.

Young’s skill set draws favorable comps to players like Ian Happ, Jurickson Profar, and Colt Keith, versatile contributors with solid discipline and some pop. Here’s how he currently tacks up in our dynasty tool grades:

Young makes for a compelling buy-low candidate in dynasty formats. His surface stats may be underwhelming, but the underlying data points to a player with above-average discipline, average to plus hit tool, and emerging power. If his bat continues to develop, there is a path to becoming a well-rounded contributor in both real life and fantasy.

Isaac Collins

Isaac Collins is a late bloomer, playing his rookie season at age 27. He has made the most of his opportunity, posting a 2.6 fWAR through his first 110 games while slashing .271/.370/.420 with 15 stolen bases. His 12.4% walk rate is backed by an elite 19.7% chase rate, ranking in the 90th percentile, which gives him a stable OBP floor and added value in OBP formats

While Collins doesn’t flash standout power, he has shown just enough pop to stay relevant. He hit double-digit home runs in both 2023 and 2024 in the Brewers’ minor league system, and projects for 10–15 homers annually at the major league level. Interestingly, he appeared on the same swing metric list as Cole Young, suggesting there may be slightly more untapped power potential.

Collins profiles more as a versatile fourth outfielder, with the potential for more if he can tap into consistent in-game power. His dynasty tool grades mirrors players like Jared Triolo and Jake Fraley, part-time players who have not carved out everyday roles.

Heading into his age-28 season in 2026, it’s unlikely Collins takes a major developmental leap. What we’re seeing now is probably close to his true talent level. For fantasy purposes, he is best viewed as a late-round flier or a bench piece in deep redraft leagues. He can be useful in-season, especially in Draft Champions or formats where playing time is king, but his long-term outlook is murky. Without prospect pedigree or youth on his side, Collins will need to keep producing to hold onto his role.

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August 31, 2025
Rookie Analysis & Tool Grades: July 2025
July 15, 2025

The 2025 rookie class continues to show out, with Shane Smith, Jacob Wilson, and Jacob Misiorowski being named to this year’s All-Star Game. Smith was spotlighted in our May Rookie Review and now will turn the focus to other rising stars.

From the Athletics’ exciting rookies, Jacob Wilson and Nick Kurtz, to emerging names to know like Agustín Ramírez and Noah Cameron, we’re breaking down season-to-date stats, custom tool grades, and long-term outlooks.

Please reference past rookie posts if wanting to learn more about the DoubleScoop tool grades.

Jacob Wilson

We flagged Jacob Wilson as an honorable mention in our April breakout list, noting:

“Elite hit tool comparable to Arraez and Kwan. Think there could be a little more power to develop in Wilson’s bat vs the others but would still cap Wilson at 15 homeruns at his peak.”

Now, just months later, Wilson has skyrocketed from sleeper status to superstar, voted as the starting shortstop for the American League in this year’s All-Star Game. He’s also emerged as the frontrunner for the AL Rookie of the Year, thanks to a slash line of .332/.375/.462 over 87 games, with 9 HR / 44 R / 42 RBI / 5 SB.

Wilson’s calling card is his 80-grade hit tool, rivaling Arraez in bat-to-ball precision. He’s posted an elite 91.2% contact rate and trimmed his strikeout rate down to 7.7%, both top-five metrics among qualified hitters. Beyond his hit tool, the rest of his profile is modest; his power, discipline, and speed grade out as below average which limit his fantasy upside.

Jacob Wilson Dynasty Tool Grades

Wilson has benefitted from Sacramento’s hitter-friendly dimensions. His HR/FB rate is notably higher at home, and Baseball Savant’s park-adjusted HR total suggests he is slightly overperforming in the long ball category. His average expected HR across all parks sits at 6.6 vs his actual 9.

Jacob Wilson home vs road splits

Wilson should benefit the next few seasons from a good ballpark but long-term temper expectations on the power as it is currently an extreme contact first approach.

At 23 years old, Wilson has room to grow, but his current value hinges on his hit tool. He is unlikely to offer much help in power, speed, or fielding (currently sitting at -2 OAA and a .971 fielding percentage), though improved defense may be in his genes thanks to his father’s glove-first profile. He will continue to have a good home park and bat at the top of the core Athletics’ sluggers for the next few years which can help his run production.

Wilson is a potential sell-high candidate in dynasty formats. The All-Star nod and Rookie of the Year buzz are driving peak interest, making this a prime moment to shop him in your league. Long term, we view him as a borderline top 10 dynasty shortstop, but still lean toward more well-rounded options like Corey Seager, Gunnar Henderson, Francisco Lindor, Zach Neto, Mookie Betts, and CJ Abrams.

Agustín Ramírez

Rookie Agustín Ramírez has been a bright spot for a Marlins team searching for franchise building blocks. Splitting time between catcher and designated hitter, he has launched 14 homers and driven in 40 runs across just 66 games, posting a slash line of .249/.296/.487 with a 113 wRC+.

Ramírez burst onto the scene with a red-hot debut, delivering 3 homers and a 1.043 OPS in his first 8 games. Since then, his production has normalized with a .748 OPS and 103 wRC+, aligning more closely with 2025 expectations.

Ramírez boasts plus raw power thanks to above-average max exit velocity, bat speed, and barrel rates. That kind of pop allows him to earn extra time at DH, which boosts his volume and fantasy relevance.

While his OBP leaves room for improvement, Ramírez makes average contact and pairs it with strong quality of contact. He should not drag you down in batting average formats and projects comfortably in the .250 to .275 range.

He shares similar tools to Junior Caminero and Yandy Díaz. Like Díaz, Ramírez hits the ball hard consistently. The difference lies in batted-ball shape, with Ramirez posting a 46% ground ball rate compared to Díaz’s 50%. That added loft fuels his power upside.

Agustín Ramírez player comp

With a foundation of quality contact skills, plus exit velocity, and hard-hit rates, Ramírez ranks as a top 10 dynasty catcher. His dual usage behind the plate and at DH allows for expanded playing time, resulting in strong counting stats. While he doesn’t offer much speed at the moment and the plate discipline is still developing, his offensive skill set is useful with catcher eligibility.

Make sure he is rostered in dynasty and redraft formats. Ramírez has the tools to settle in as a reliable 20-plus homer contributor who will not tank your batting average, while also taking advantage of lineup versatility in Miami.

Nick Kurtz

Nick Kurtz wasted no time announcing his arrival, torching the minor leagues with a .344/.440/.712 line across just 33 games from Single A to Triple A. A standout bat from Wake Forest, Kurtz was always viewed as an advanced hitter, but his quick rise has still been amazing.

Now fresh off being named the AL Rookie of the Month for June, Kurtz owns a 139 wRC+ with 17 home runs through 58 games. Projected over a full season, that power pace translates to a 47-homer campaign.

One of the most impressive aspects of Kurtz’s rookie season is his steady improvement. His OPS has ticked up each month so far, showing a positive development that validates his prospect pedigree and quick promotions. While the upward trend can’t last forever, early signs point to a slugger who is learning on the fly and evolving.

Nick Kurtz 2025 month to month splits

Kurtz checks every power box. With elite bat speed, barrel rate, and hard-hit metrics, he looks ready to join the league’s top tier of home run threats. His bat speed averages almost 78 miles per hour, which places him in rare territory for exit velocity potential.

This is the one concern in his profile. Kurtz carries a contact rate of 69%, well below the league average of 77%, and a strikeout rate north of 30%. Like many sluggers with big power and fringe contact skills, streaks and slumps may follow as pitchers adjust. Fortunately, Kurtz shows strong plate discipline and doesn’t chase, which will keep his on-base value afloat through cold spells

Kurtz profiles as the next-generation version of Matt Olson. Both bring elite slugging and mature approaches, but Kurtz may carry more risk in batting average due to his current contact limitations. That said, his raw power and bat speed could allow Kurtz power grade to play up more.

Nick Kurtz vs Matt Olson Player Comp

Kurtz slots in as a top 10 dynasty first baseman, anchored by his role in a young Athletics’ lineup featuring Jacob Wilson, Lawrence Butler, Tyler Soderstrom, Shea Langeliers, and Brent Rooker. Expect strong yearly RBI and homerun totals, even if the batting average fluctuates year to year.

Noah Cameron

Noah Cameron is quietly putting together an impressive rookie campaign, posting a 2.31 ERA and 1.00 WHIP through his first 12 starts. His early-season performance has helped him secure a spot in a surprisingly strong Royals rotation that ranks third in starter ERA at 3.37 for the season.

Cameron is a crafty left-hander with a deep pitch mix. He features a four-seam fastball (29%), changeup (20%), slider (17%), cutter (17%), and curveball (17%). His fastball velocity sits at just 92.3 miles per hour and lacks standout shape, resulting in the lowest four-seam usage rate among lefties with 30 or more innings pitched.

His changeup is his bread and butter, showing a 10+ mph separation from the fastball and delivering elite results with a 38.6 percent whiff rate and a .163 opponent batting average. While his slider and curveball are average in velocity and movement, they are serviceable weapons that each generate whiff rates around 30%.

Screenshot from Baseball Savant, MLB Advanced Media

Through his early MLB outings, Cameron has displayed reverse splits, with left-handed hitters having more success against him than righties.

Noah Cameron L vs R 2025 splits

As a changeup-first lefty, his fastball and changeup combo naturally play better against right-handed hitters, which could sustain this reverse split trend. His lack of a good fastball to get hitters out will make commanding his breaking balls and off-speed pitches extremely important. Adding a sinker into his mix could possibly help his left-handed splits.

Cameron is a strong sell-high candidate. His current 2.31 ERA is unlikely to stick, with almost all projection models expecting an ERA north of 4 the rest of season. His .218 BABIP also signals regression is coming. Still, with Ragans and Lorenzon on the IL and an organization that’s biggest internal rotation challengers are Rich Hill and Dallas Keuchel, Cameron is likely safe for now.

In shallow fantasy leagues, ride the hot hand but view him more as a matchup-dependent pitcher vs a set and forget. In deeper formats, consider trading him while his numbers look great, especially as a secondary piece in a two-for-one deal.

Chase Dollander

Entering 2025 as one of baseball’s most promising pitching prospects, Chase Dollander was rated as the number 25 overall prospect by MLB Pipeline. But his rookie campaign has been far from smooth, posting a 6.68 ERA and 1.56 WHIP over 15 starts which led him to be demoted to Triple-A. As a member of the Rockies organization, Dollander faces the unique challenge of mastering his arsenal in the unforgiving environment of Coors Field.

Pitch Arsenal:
- Four-Seam Fastball: Thrown nearly half the time (48%) and averaging 97.7 miles per hour, this pitch has strong velocity and gets some arm-side run/sink.
- Curveball: Dollander’s most effective weapon. He throws it 22% of the time and generates strong horizontal break which has limited opponents to a .152 batting average with a 30.7 percent whiff rate.
- Cutter: At 89.5 miles per hour, his cutter features an intriguing mix of extra vertical and horizontal break compared to other similar pitches. The pitch acts as a hybrid cutter-slider, though it could be better converting into a true hard slider, similar to Jacob Degrom’s slider.
- Sinker and Changeup: The sinker and changeup are used at 9% and 8% respectively, with the changeup almost exclusively being used against LHB. Neither have generated strong results this season and are in need of some adjustment.
Chase Dollander Pitch Statistics

On the road this season, Dollander has been an around average starting pitcher with a 4.25 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP showing signs of a serviceable major league pitcher. At Coors it has been messy this season with over a 9 ERA. Coors can impact pitches, such as breaking balls typically lose movement. The hitter friendly environment and the Coors effect on his breaking ball could be a big reason why Dollander is struggling at home.

Chase Dollander home vs road splits

It’s hard to understand the Rockies sending Dollander back to AAA given their rebuilding status and his prospect pedigree. He is better off learning how to pitch in Coors and developing with the Rockies coaches. He has the arsenal foundation to be a capable starter but will need to develop stronger command/control of his breaking balls and off-speed and make some pitch mix tweaks.

Chase Dollander custom dynasty tool grades

In all fantasy formats, it is best to keep him on the waiver wire for now. Even if called up again his starts carry risk due to his home/road splits and poor team context. Until he makes some needed adjustments and can better handle Coors, Dollander remains a watch-list arm with more name value than usable fantasy value.

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July 15, 2025
Rookie Analysis & Tool Grades: June 2025
June 12, 2025

It has been about a month since the May rookie review so time for a June follow up. On this series I dive into both rookie hitter and pitcher performances’ so far this season and look to provide some outlook into their fantasy usefulness, provide tool grades, as well as find relevant comps for their tool profile.

One thing I will mention throughout the rookie review series are my DoubleScoop tool grades. Hit, Power, Discipline, and Speed for hitters, and Induced Contact, Contact Prevention, Control, and Arsenal for pitchers. These grades follow the traditional 20–80 scouting scale, where 50 represents MLB average, 20 being the lowest and 80 being the highest. I recommend checking out Fangraphs article – Scouting Explained: The 20-80 Scouting Scale | FanGraphs Baseball – or search online if wanting to understand the 20-80 scale better.

DoubleScoop Hitter Tools
- Hit – Grades player on ability to put the ball in play and quality of the contact
- Power – Grades player on their bat speed, Max EVs, and barrels
- Discipline – Grades player’s ability to control the strike zone and work walks
- Speed – Grades player’s sprint speed, aggressiveness, and their efficiency on the basepaths
DoubleScoop Pitchers Tools
- Induced Contact – Grades pitcher on ability to limit favorable hitter outcomes
- Contact Prevention – Grades pitcher’s ability to avoid hitters making contact
- Control – Grades pitcher’s ability to control their pitches in the zone
- Arsenal – Grades pitcher on the quality and randomness of their pitches
Chase Meidroth

Initially viewed as more of a complementary piece to top catching prospect Kyle Teel and 2024 12th overall pick Braden Montgomery, Meidroth has established himself as the everyday shortstop for the White Sox in 2025. Since May, he’s been locked into either the leadoff or No. 2 spot in the lineup, earning consistent at-bats. That opportunity has paid off, as he’s slashed .298/.383/.382 with a 123 wRC+, 7 SB, and 17 R over 149 plate appearances (33 games started).

Meidroth calling card is his hit tool, currently graded at a 70 by our DoubleScoop tool grades, along with above average discipline (55) and speed (55). While he should be able to run consistent high batting averages due to his hit tool, he also is not afraid to take his walks. Meidroth at the time of this article, is in the 97^th percentile in chase rate, meaning he is one of the best in the league at not chasing pitches out of the strike zone.

His profile draws similarities to players like Geraldo Perdomo and Santiago Espinal—high-contact hitters with limited power, average-to-above-average speed, and solid plate discipline.

This profile can be fantasy relevant as we are seeing Perdomo have a 2025 fantasy breakout and already almost breaking his career high in HR and RBIs. In roto leagues, look at Meidroth as a 3-category contributor who will provide a nice batting average floor, solid run production, and around 15-20 SBs over the course of a full season.

Carlos Narváez

Carlos Narváez has been a nice surprise for the Red Sox this season, posting a .280/.357/.457 slash line, good for a 126 wRC+ while also providing strong defensive value behind the plate. Though never regarded as a top prospect and failing to make most organizational top prospect lists during his time in the NYY organization, he is certainly leaving his mark around the league. As of the time of writing, he currently ranks 2^nd behind Jacob Wilson in fWAR among all rookie hitters according to Fangraphs.

Narváez grades out with average to above average tools across the board except for his speed, which is often not expected for catchers. He comps similarly to sluggers like Colt Keith (1B/2B/3B) and Brent Rooker (DH/OF) who also are graded out with average Hit tools with plus power and discipline. With Narváez behind the dish, I do not expect him to reach the lofty 30+ HR totals that Rooker has put up during the past few seasons. With 450+ PA, I see Narvaez having the skill set to hit 15-20 HRs which is valuable for a catcher in fantasy leagues.

Narváez has earned the larger share of playing time over Connor Wong due to his strong defense and hitting this season, but something to note as the Red Sox will still want to find ABs for Wong. Narváez should be started in all two catcher leagues at this point in 2025 and view him as a top-15 catcher in redraft leagues.

Cam Smith

Cam Smith made headlines to start the 2025 season making the opening day roster for the Astros with just 32 MiLB games under his belt after being drafted 14^th overall by the Cubs in 2024. Not only being challenged by MLB pitchers with limited MiLB experience, Smith is also dealing with learning a new position, having shifted from 3B to RF to find a way to get him into the lineup.

Results so far have been what you could expect with all that has been thrown at Cam Smith, posting a .246/.325/.363 slash with a 99 wRC+. Players with similar tool grades over the past two seasons are Jarred Kelenic (2024) and Nolan Jones (2025). Kelenic, a highly regarded OF prospect from SEA, also debuted at a young age at just 21 years old but so far has failed to develop into an everyday player.

Some of these current player comps may frustrate Astros fans, but at just 22 years old, there is still plenty of room for growth for Smith. One glimmer of hope is that Smith has the highest bat speed of the 3 players above averaging 75.2 mph on his swing, meaning there is more raw power that could be unlocked. While I am not a GM or in player development, it makes me wonder if some extra AAA time to work on developing a stronger plate approach without the pressure of playing on the MLB team could benefit Smith in the long-term and avoid following the path of Kelenic.

Caleb Durbin

Durbin, an undersized Yankees prospect, was traded to the Brewers system in December 2024 as part of the Yankees aquiring Devin Williams. While never a fixture on top prospect lists, he was a standout in the 2024 Arizona Fall League (AFL) slashing .312/.427/.548 in 24 games.

Durbin has not transitioned his AFL/minor league production into MLB production yet, slashing just .208/.302/.315 through his first 47 games. Looking under the hood, there are some things to like out of Durbin. Durbin possesses great contact skills, finding himself near the top of the leaderboards in K%, Whiff%, and contact % which is a big reason why his hit tool grades out at an elite level even though he is only batting .208 at the moment.

Durbin’s not likely to be a double-digit home run threat, maybe peaking at 10 in a season, but that doesn’t mean he can’t carve out fantasy value. His skill set is similar to that of Nico Hoerner, featuring a high-contact bat paired with plus speed.

I see Durbin being able to turn his season around and a walk-off HR against my Padres for his first big league HR should help his confidence. With an extremely low BABIP of .213, it is not hard to see some positive regression come along and start to see his batting average creep up closer to the .250 – .260 range this season. Getting on base will also allow Durbin to steal more bases, with only 5 on the season so far after posting 30+ steals each full season in the minors.

While Durbin’s profile is better fit for 2B, the Brewers have Turang locked in at 2B for the near future. I like Durbin in deeper dynasty leagues and will be looking at Durbin in 2026 roto leagues as a late round sleeper.

Jackson Jobe

Jobe entered the 2025 season ranked as the Tigers’ top prospect and the No. 5 overall prospect in baseball, according to MLB Pipeline. That only added to the already lofty expectations for the 22-year-old right-hander, who was drafted third overall out of high school in 2021. At the time, scouts and analysts raved about his high-spin slider and overall pitchability.

Now, just 22 years, Jobe finds himself on the IL with a flexor strain which no clear timetable on his return. Having had multiple personal flexor strains and a UCL strain myself, this is not great news for Jobe who was hoping to be a ROY candidate in 2025.

Over 10 starts and 49 innings in 2025, his pitch metrics have drawn comps to both Sandy Alcantara, who is returning from Tommy John surgery, and Frankie Montas. Most years, being compared to Alcantara would be a massive compliment, but in 2025, Alcantara has struggled to regain his elite command. Even the lower end of the comp in Montas represents a serviceable MLB starter, though it would be a notable drop-off for someone tabbed as the game’s top pitching prospect just months ago.

We will have to wait patiently to hear more news on Jobe’s injury and timeline to return to pitching. The Arsenal grade being listed as a 55 is a strong indicator that there is upside for more but will need to either find the right mix across his other pitches outside of his 4-seam and slider or tighten his command to take the next step forward. I’d consider dropping Jobe in redraft leagues unless you have IL stashes until you hear any next update on his injury.

Ben Casparius

Casparius has thrived in a relief role with the Dodgers in his rookie year in 2025, posting a 2.93 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 27.3% K-rate, and 4.3% BB-rate in 40 innings (21 appearances). Primarily used a starter in the minors, he now operares as a multi-iinning weapon out of the Dodgers bullpen. He served as an opener on April 23rd (2.2 IP) and got a spot start against the Padres today, going four innings as a wrote this article.

While Casparius grades out well as a reliever, it looks like the Dodgers are preparing to stretch him out as a starter to help cover a rotation plagued by injuries. To try and project Casparius grades as an SP, I took 2024 grades for the innings that Kris Bubic, Clay Holmes, and Grant Holmes pitched out of the bullpen and compared it to their 2025 grades as starting pitchers. From there I took the average % in change and applied that to his 2025 grades. Below are Casparius 2025 grades as a RP as well as his projected SP tool grades with comps to other similar starters.

The estimated SP tool projections for Ben Casparius are strong across the board and have intriguing comps, including Ryan Weathers and Jacob Degrom. Casparius has an SP arsenal with his 4-Seam, Sweeper, Cutter, and Curveball mix which he mixes up well against LHP and RHP.

If stretched out to go five innings consistently, Casparius could become a major fantasy asset as we approach the season’s midpoint. I’m comfortable viewing him as a top-30 SP talent for the rest of 2025. Even with 107.2 innings in 2023 marking his career high, I’m betting that at age 26, and with the Dodgers’ current rotation woes, they’ll let him ride as long as he stays healthy.

Go snag Casparius off waivers or free agency if he’s still out there, he might just be one of the sneakiest SP values of the season!

Hunter Dobbins

Dobbins, ranked as the No. 13 Red Sox prospect ahead of the 2025 season by MLB Pipeline, has managed to hold onto a rotation spot due to a combination of injuries and struggles from other Red Sox arms (Giolito, Houck, Crawford, Fitts). So far, he’s been a serviceable starter, posting a 4.20 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 2025.

Dobbins features a five-pitch mix made of a 4-seam, slider, curveball, sweeper, and splitter of which he throws all pitches at least 10% of the time. While only striking out hitters 17.9% of the time, he makes up for his lack of K’s by limiting free passes (4.8% BB-rate).

Dobbins skill profile matches up similarly with Jameson Taillon, a veteran pitcher known for his ability to mix and locate his pitches rather than overpowering stuff. Even though Dobbins is striking hitters out at just a 17.9% rate, his 50-grade contact prevention indicate he may be able to tick up his K% closer to 20%. Notably, his curveball and slider generate strong whiff% at 40% and 30.3% respectively. That said, he will need to continue to refine his off-speed pitch mix as he only generates a 13.3% whiff rate on his 4-seam with hitters batting .313 off the pitch.

Without a plus fastball,Dobbins does not project as a frontline starter. Dobbins more realistically profiles as a solid 4^th starter or lower end 3^rd starter during his peak.

Logan Evans

Ranked as the #10 Seattle prospect in 2025 by MLB Pipeline, Evans has found himself with opportunities to start this season due to injuries to George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, and Bryce Miller. Evans has a deep arsenal, including a cutter, sweeper, sinker, change-up, 4-seam, and curveball, each thrown over 10% of the time.

Through seven starts this season, Evans has a 3.38 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 18.0% K-rate, and 7.2% BB-rate. While the ERA and WHIP are respectable, I expect regression from Evans given his below average contact prevention with only league average induced contact.

Evan’s arsenal could play up with his three different fastballs and his strong command. With improvements to his induced contact, he could see a higher-end comp like Michael Wacha. I do not expect him to improve his contact prevention much as he does not have any pitches with a 30% whiff rate, with the top being his cutter with a 25% whiff rate.

Evans currently profiles as a back of the rotation arm who should eat innings and be useful in good streaming matchups. His 3-fastballs are a good foundation for a starter and could see improvements in his induced contact if he continues to develop. For now, plan on using Evans as a streamer at home or vs poor offenses.

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June 12, 2025
Rookie Analysis & Tool Grades: May 2025
May 15, 2025

Starting a monthly article where I will dive into MLB rookies and how their 1st full season in the MLB is going. Not every rookie who debuted during the previous or current month will be covered but will cover select rookies at a time with a focus on those with significant enough playing time.

One thing I will mention throughout the article are my personal tool grades. These are Hit, Power, Discipline, and Speed for hitters, and Induced Contact, Contact Prevention, Control, and Arsenal for pitchers. These grades follow the traditional 20–80 scouting scale, where 50 represents MLB average, 20 being the lowest and 80 being the highest. I recommend checking out Fangraphs article – Scouting Explained: The 20-80 Scouting Scale | FanGraphs Baseball – or search online if wanting to understand the 20-80 scale better.

DoubleScoop Hitter Tools
- Hit – Grades player on ability to put the ball in play and quality of the contact
- Power – Grades player on their bat speed, Max EVs, and barrels
- Discipline – Grades player’s ability to control the strike zone and work walks
- Speed – Grades player’s sprint speed, aggressiveness, and their efficiency on the basepaths
DoubleScoop Pitchers Tools
- Induced Contact – Grades pitcher on ability to limit favorable hitter outcomes
- Contact Prevention – Grades pitcher’s ability to avoid hitters making contact
- Control – Grades pitcher’s ability to control their pitches in the zone
- Arsenal – Grades pitcher on the quality and randomness of their pitches
With that being covered, lets dive into the rookie tool grades and relevant comparisons.

Jasson Dominguez

Mega hyped switch-hitting prospect Jasson Dominguez was given the opening day nod to start 2025. Domínguez has been a staple of dynasty league discussions for years, as he was highly talked about all the way when he was just 16 years old. At just 22, Dominguez is at the age where he could still take a huge leap forward in his progression, making it fun to dream. Setting aside the hype, here is how his current skillset stacks up:

His hit and power tools have yet to meet the lofty expectations placed on him. His current offensive profile resembles 2024 Christopher Morel or Jack Suwinski—solid pop but streaky contact. Despite his early struggles in April, Domínguez has a high prospect pedigree and is a switch hitter that makes him a valuable long-term dynasty asset. If the hit tool develops, he could offer Springer-like production with steady counting stats in roto leagues.

Drake Baldwin

Drake Baldwin was the Braves top prospect headed into the 2025 season. With Sean Murphy sidelined to begin 2025, Baldwin seized the opportunity to start on Opening Day. Through his first 25 games, Baldwin has slashed .329/.382/.557 and is supported by strong Statcast metrics such as bat speed, hard-hit rate, squared-up %, whiff %, and more. The tool grades love what Baldwin has done in 2025 with the below grades/comps:

I’m not saying Baldwin is Jackson Merrill, but the signs are pointing towards Baldwin having the bat to be a top catcher in the league for the rest of the 2020s. The Braves signed Sean Murphy through 2028 and a club option for 2029, meaning Murphy may not hit free agency again until 2030. Should the Braves fall out of contention, it is worth throwing Murphy’s name out in trade talks to see what the return looks like and give Baldwin the chance to play every day. Baldwin is a must-own in dynasty leagues and 2-catcher leagues and would keep an eye on what the Braves do throughout the season as once he is an everyday player there may be no looking back.

Jake Mangum

70 Hit – 35 Power – 50 Discipline – 75 Speed

Mangum ranks 4th in fWAR among rookie hitters, despite playing nearly half as many games as the other WAR leaders. Unlike most rookies, Mangum is already 29 years old and likely does not have a ton of room for physical growth. FanGraphs grades Mangum’s tools as follows: Hit – 50/60, Raw Power – 40/40, Speed – 55/55. With the small 2025 sample, Mangum’s Hit and Speed tools are grading favorably:

His current 9.6% strikeout rate is well below his 17% mark from AAA over the past two years, suggesting likely regression in his Hit tool. With every day at bats over a full season, I could see Mangum as a .270 to 290 hitter with 25+ steal upside with single digit home runs. With some expected regression, I compare his tools similarly to Sal Frelick. Like Frelick, Mangum’s value is driven by is his contact ability and speed rather than power, making him a stronger asset in Roto leagues with batting average and stolen bases categories than points formats. Mangum is working his way back from a groin injury, and upon his return, he’ll face competition for playing time among Rays outfielders like Josh Lowe, Chandler Simpson, Christopher Morel, and Kameron Misner.

Luisangel Acuña

Luisangel Acuña currently ranks 7th among rookie fWAR leaders. As the younger brother of superstar Ronald Acuña, Luisangel does not possess the same elite power-speed combination. In fact, this year Luisangel has yet to produce any homeruns or barrels after hitting 3 homeruns with a 9%-barrel rate in a brief 2024 MLB callup. Speed is his standout tool, and so far, it’s the only one grading as elite, while the rest of his skillset remains closer to league average. While he isn’t completely devoid of power, his bat profiles more for single-digit home runs, with 30+ stolen bases being the real fantasy appeal. A good comp when trying to place his long-term outlook would be Andres Giménez. Like Giménez, Acuña offers strong contact skills and high-end speed but lacks the power upside needed for premium fantasy output in all formats.

The challenge with speed-first prospects is that if Acuña’s bat struggles, he could lose playing time—or worse, face a demotion. If he continues to develop and is able to tap into tap into more power in future seasons, I could see Acuna producing 15/30 (HR/SBs) during a peak year.

Trey Sweeney

Sweeney, 25, is playing SS every day for the AL Central leading Tigers. Thanks to his consistent playing time, Sweeney currently leads all rookie hitters in fWAR (0.8). Sweeney lacks standout tools, but he has around average tools across the board. The 2025 tool grades on Sweeney are below:

When comparing his tools to 2024 data, he matched well with another left-handed hitting middle infielder, Gavin Lux. Like Lux, Sweeney has a balanced profile and while not being a superstar, can help contribute in deeper leagues or DCs where starters/compilers are useful.

Shane Smith

At 25, Smith has been one of the few bright spots for the White Sox this season, currently leading all rookie pitchers in fWAR. Smith features a five-pitch mix—four-seam fastball, changeup, slider, curveball, and sinker—that allows him to keep hitters off balance. A similar comp looking at other 2025 pitcher tools is Casey Mize. Like Mize, Smith relies on above average control and a deep arsenal rather than overpowering stuff.

Smith looks like a legitimate piece of the White Sox’s future rotation and long-term could be a solid #3 behind top prospects Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith. I recommend using Smith in 2025 in good matchups and be mindful wins will be limited and that he is better served in QS leagues. As the White Sox rebuild, Smith should benefit from better lineups/defense in the future.

AJ Smith-Shawver

Despite debuting in 2023 at just 20 years old, Smith-Shawver retains rookie eligibility in 2025 and still has time to refine his skills at 22. Smith-Shawver currently ranks 6th among rookie pitchers in fWAR and appears poised to be a long-term fixture in the Braves rotation. His arsenal includes a four-seam fastball, splitter, curveball, and slider, with the splitter and curveball boasting whiff rates above 40% in 2025.

Like Kevin Gausman, Smith-Shawver leans on his splitter to generate whiffs, but his command remains a work in progress. If he sharpens his control, he could elevate from a projected mid-rotation arm to a reliable fantasy SP2. Monitor Smith-Shawver’s walk rate, if he brings his BB% down, his upside rises.

Will Warren

Entering 2025 as the Yankees’ fifth-ranked prospect, Warren has secured a rotation spot following injuries to Gerrit Cole, Luis Gil, JT Brubaker, and Marcus Stroman. He has earned his stay and currently ranks 5^th among rookie pitchers in fWAR with a 4.75 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. Comparing Warren’s 2025 tool grades to 2024 data, he closely aligns with Tylor Megill.

His arsenal includes a four-seam fastball, sweeper, sinker, and changeup, with the sinker and sweeper being his primary weapons against righties, while he relies on the four-seam and changeup versus lefties. Baseball Savant is also tracking a new Curveball which he is throwing around 5% of the time. Warren’s curveball has generated a 54.5% whiff rate this season, but it is unclear whether this represents a refined offering or inconsistencies in his sweeper movement. If he fully develops it—or adds a true vertical breaking pitch—he could elevate his effectiveness beyond his current mid-rotation profile.

Warren should be part of the Yankees rotation for the rest of the season and future seasons as a mid/late rotation arm. If he can develop a curveball/deathball and (or) improve on his current control (10% BB rate), Warren could unlock a new tier and push him up another level.

Jack Leiter

Entering 2025 as the Rangers’ No. 3 prospect per MLB Pipeline, Leiter secured a rotation spot out of spring training. This season, Leiter has posted a respectable 4.34 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, though his underlying metrics—19.0% strikeout rate and 11.6% walk rate—suggest room for improvement. The good news is, Leiter seems to be adjusting his pitch mix in 2025, which I called out as a much-needed change in the Surprise Rangers Spring Training article. Leiter has supplemented some of his 4-seam usage with a new sinker that he is using 19% of the time and increased his changeup usage to 13.9%. These adjustments have contributed to improvements in his induced contact and arsenal grades.

The biggest problem for Leiter is his control and ability to miss bats. His 2025 changes have at least helped to show he can be a serviceable #4 or #5 starter and eased the immediate concerns that he needs to shift to the bullpen. If Leiter refines his control or improves his contact prevention, he could unlock more upside akin to Frankie Montas/Aaron Civale. All in all, I do not see the ace upside with Leiter that came with the 2^nd overall pick. Improving either his control or contact prevention would push Leiter into the mid-rotation tier rather than a pure backend starter. Watch his K% and BB% trends closely.

Chad Patrick

A relatively unknown prospect for the Brewers, Patrick’s best minor league season came in 2024 when he posted a 2.90 ERA over 136 AAA innings at age 25. This season, Patrick has seized his opportunity in the rotation and isn’t letting go. Through his first 8 GS, Patrick has a crisp 3.19 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. Patrick is finding success with his three-fastball mix (cutter, 4-seam, sinker) while throwing his changeup (6%) and slider (5%) minimally. With this profile, Patrick does not generate a ton of swing and miss but is more focused on inducing weak contact. Patrick’s profile closely mirrors 2024 Javier Assad and Michael Lorenzen—pitchers who rely on weak contact over strikeouts.

Patrick’s low strikeout rate means his success will depend heavily on BABIP and defensive support. If his luck turns, expect some volatility in ERA and WHIP. Keep in mind Javier Assad and Michael Lorenzon have had runs of success in the same division. Patrick fits best as a matchup-dependent streamer rather than a set-and-forget fantasy starter.

Let us know on X @2BScoopBaseball if you have any feedback, questions, or would like to see any other players analyzed.
May 15, 2025