The last dynasty breakout article in April dived into early dynasty breakout targets like Ben Rice, Tyler Soderstrom, Jonathan Aranda, Jacob Wilson, and more. Now, as the 2025 campaign pushes past the halfway mark, it is time to revisit more dynasty breakouts.
This list focuses on current MLB players who have taken tangible steps forward in their development and are positioned to breakout and have dynasty league relevance.
Hitters
Evan Carter
Carter has been one of the few bright spots for the Texas Rangers this season. After recovering from some back issues and and opening the season in the minors, he’s now rounding into form. Among Rangers hitters with 90+ plate appearances, Carter currently leads the team in wRC+ (128), wOBA (.352), and OPS (.797).
While Carter didn’t light up the minors earlier in 2025, there are notable changes in his approach at the Major League level through his first 28 games this season
The biggest change is Carter’s newfound aggressiveness at the plate. According to Baseball Savant, the MLB average swing rate is 47.3%. In 2023 and 2024, Carter’s swing rates sat well below that mark at just 34.5% and 38.3%, respectively. But in 2025, he has bumped it up to 44.4%, approaching league average.
Being overly passive can cause good hitters to miss out on pitches they can hit early in counts. It can also lead to deeper counts, increasing both strikeouts and walks. Carter’s increase in z-swing rate appears to be paying off: his strikeout rate has dropped from 26.5% in 2024 to just 17% so far in 2025.
Another big development is his improved quality of contact. Carter’s barrel rate has risen to 10.4%, up from 5.9% last year. He flashed similar pop in a small sample back in 2023, the year he became a postseason hero for the Rangers. This season, he is combining a career-low strikeout rate, double-digit barrel percentage, and more aggression in the box.
At just 22 years old, our DoubleScoop tool grades project Carter to keep taking steps forward. His current dynasty tool grades are as follows:
One possible fantasy comp is an outfield version of CJ Abrams, who provides a power and speed blend. Our dynasty grades expect an uptick in Carter’s tools due to his young age (22), however I expect there could be some power regression as we get a larger 2025 sample. Even with some pullback, he has the tools to be a perennial 20-20 threat.
Keep an eye on his zone swing rate (Z-Swing%). If he continues hunting strikes more aggressively, he will be better positioned to capitalize on his hit and power tools.
Miguel Vargas
Miguel Vargas has secured every day at-bats in 2025, his first full season with the White Sox. While his season-long slash line of .236/.314/.426 (108 wRC+) may not jump off the page, he’s been heating up. Since May 1, he has posted a .246/.320/.497 line with a 127 wRC+.
Vargas carries prospect pedigree, having been ranked No. 37 overall by MLB Pipeline in 2023 while with the Dodgers. Still, coming into this season, he held a career batting average under .200 through his first 171 big-league games from 2022 to 2024.
There were flashes beneath the surface in 2023 and 2024. Vargas had an above-average chase rate and pull-air percentage in both 2023 and 2024. Now in 2025, he’s showing improvements in barrel rate, average exit velocity, and zone-contact rate, positive steps toward unlocking his potential.
He has also made some subtle adjustments in the batter’s box. Per Baseball Savant, Vargas has moved back in the box, shifting from 28.5 to 30.2 inches (league average is 27.8),and has opened his stance from 1 degree to 6 degrees (league average is 11%). While minor, these tweaks may be helping him tap into more power.
While Vargas doesn’t boast elite exit velos, bat speed, or barrel numbers, he’s maximizing his raw pop with excellent pull-air rates, similar to how players like Isaac Paredes and Alex Bregman succeed. If he sustains these gains, Vargas could become a foundational piece in the middle of the White Sox lineup moving forward.
Pitchers
Will Warren
I mentioned Will Warren in our first rookie review article earlier this year, and if you haven’t yet, it’s worth a quick read as a refresher. While his surface stats (4.66 ERA and 1.33 WHIP) don’t scream breakout, there’s a lot more going on beneath the hood. Warren has a 29.4% strikeout rate backed by a 31.0% CSW%. Among starting pitchers with at least 20 innings (4+ starts), that K% ranks top 15.
A key reason for his continued ascent is how he’s diversified his pitch mix over the season:
Earlier in the year, Warren leaned heavily on his SI/SW against RHB and FF/CH against LHB. Now, he is showcasing a more refined arsenal. His best fastball remains the sinker, with above-average vertical movement and average velocity (93.1 MPH). The 4-seam averages 93.4 MPH and lacks great shape but still generates a 28.3% whiff rate. Lastly, the sweeper (3038 RPM) and curveball (2908 RPM) both feature excellent spin rates, leading to plus movement and whiff rates above 30%.
Since May, Warren has kept his walk rate below 10% every month after opening the season at 11.4% in March/April. That early command inconsistency also aligned with his worst ERA split (5.63), which improved to 4.82 in May and currently sits at 3.47 in June
The biggest weakness for Warren in 2025 has been left-handed hitters.
LHB are batting .522 against his sweeper which he throws around 18% to LHB. I’d like to see Warren adjust his approach to LHBs: lean more on the four-seam, changeup, and curveball while mixing in the sinker and sweeper as show-me offerings below 5% usage. While Stuff+ only grades his changeup at 85, lefties are hitting just .220 against it with a 26.7% whiff rate. Meanwhile, his curveball has a Stuff+ of t 115, with LHBs batting .250 and whiffing 42.9% of the time against the pitch.
He already uses a similar strategy vs. RHBs, favoring the sinker, sweeper, and four-seam while rarely throwing the changeup or curve. That said, there can be a similar case made for using the changeup and curveball as show me pitches against RHB.
Warren is breaking out in his first full MLB season. He is showing small improvements in his BB%, evolving his pitch mix, and emerging as one of the leagues upcoming K leaders. The next step is limiting damage against lefties, especially in a tough home park that plays up for LHB. Still, with top-tier swing-and-miss ability, he profiles as a potential top-50 dynasty SP with upside for more at his peak.
Michael Soroka
Michael Soroka has already experienced a career’s worth of highs and lows while still just 27. Debuting at age 20, he found immediate success in the majors, posting ERAs of 3.51, 2.68, and 3.95 in his first three seasons while making the NL All-Star team in 2019. Then came the setbacks. Soroka tore his Achilles in 2020, and re-tore the same Achilles during his comeback attempt, requiring a second surgery. In total, he missed roughly three full MLB seasons due to these injuries.
Now in 2025, in his third year back, Soroka is beginning to flash the form that once made him one of the game’s most promising young arms, despite what his 5.06 ERA might suggest. Among the biggest improvements this season:
- Career-best 4-seam and sinker velocity: 94.3 and 94.2 MPH, respectively
- Highest K% of his career at 26.5%
- BB% down to 6.3%, in line with early-career levels
- On pace for a career-best WHIP of 1.09
Another development: Soroka has scrapped his longtime slider in favor of a slurve. This new pitch brings 100 more RPM of spin, 4 additional inches of vertical break, and roughly 8 more inches of horizontal movement. It’s been effective with opposing hitters posting just a .210 wOBA against the slurve, compared to .263 wOBA against his slider in 2024.
While the surface ERA remains inflated, his 3.19 xERA indicates strong potential for positive regression. Even more compelling: his 2025 K-BB% is better than that of Paul Skenes, Max Fried, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Spencer Schwellenbach.
At 27, Soroka appears to be entering his prime. He is shaping up to be a high-floor SP with plus command and steadily improving strikeout skills with his increased velocity and new usage of his slurve. I have been targeting him across leagues, expecting a strong second half from a pitcher quietly putting it back together. A free agent after the 2025 season, he could be a dark-horse trade candidate this season which could further improve his fantasy appeal.
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