DoubleScoop Baseball

Tag: Dynasty Baseball

  • Rookie Analysis & Tool Grades: August 2025

    Rookie Analysis & Tool Grades: August 2025

    Rookie pitchers have dominated headlines in recent weeks with Nolan McLean proving himself on the big stage and top prospects Jonah Tong, Peyton Tolle, and Bubba Chandler making their MLB debuts. Some of these arms will get their own rookie spotlights later in the season, assuming they stay up and rack up enough innings.

    In this month’s Rookie Review article, we’re shifting focus to a group of rookie hitters who have carved out meaningful roles on their respective teams. These are names we haven’t covered yet this season, and each brings a distinct profile worth tracking.

    If you missed our earlier rookie breakdowns, you can catch up below:

    – May Rookie Analysis & Grades

    – June Rookie Analysis & Grades

    – July Rookie Analysis & Grades

    Now let’s dive in!

    Matt Shaw

    Matt Shaw, a 2023 first-round pick out of Maryland, earned his way onto the Cubs’ Opening Day roster after a strong showing in the minors and an impressive 2025 spring training. But since cracking the big leagues, it’s been a rocky road for the former top prospect. He slashed just .172/.294/.241 in March and April, prompting a demotion to Triple-A. After re-establishing himself there, Shaw was recalled to Chicago in May.

    Though he doesn’t fit the traditional third base mold at 5-foot-10 and 185 pounds, Shaw has shown he can impact the game in multiple ways. In 2024, he hit 21 home runs and stole 31 bases across 121 minor league games, while maintaining solid plate discipline with an 11.9% walk rate and 18.2% strikeout rate. His standout tools are his speed and contact ability. With an average sprint speed of 29.0 mph, he ranks in the 89th percentile per Baseball Savant and has stolen bases efficiently with over an 80% success rate this season. His 20.9% whiff rate is well below the league average of 25%, showing his ability to put bat to ball.

    However, Shaw’s bat speed averages just 69.5 mph, placing him in the bottom 20th percentile among major leaguers. His exit velocity and hard-hit metrics also both sit below major league average.

    Dynasty-wise, Shaw profiles similarly to Spencer Steer, with power that stems more from pulling fly balls than raw strength. If his hit tool continues to develop, he could follow a trajectory akin to Brice Turang or Andy Pages who contribute across categories and offer fantasy value.

    Shaw’s combination of speed and contact skills give him a strong foundation, especially in roto formats. If the power or hit tools develop more, he could become a multi-category contributor with sneaky upside.

    Chandler Simpson

    Chandler Simpson made a name for himself in the minor leagues by stealing 94 bases in 2023 and an eye-popping 104 in 2024. His game is built around elite speed, and he enters every season as a favorite to lead the league in stolen bases with full playing time. Had he played a full season in 2025, Simpson might have challenged Esteury Ruiz’s for the most stolen bases for a rookie since 2000.

    Simpson is no slouch with the bat either. He’s hit over .300 at every level in the Rays system and posted a sub-10% strikeout rate in the minors, showcasing an ability to consistently put the ball in play. His combination of a plus-plus hit tool and elite speed makes him one of the most unique profiles in the game today

    From a dynasty perspective, Simpson compares favorably to players like Xavier Edwards, Nico Hoerner, and teammate Jake Mangum. But none of them match Simpson’s top-tier speed, which grades out as an 80 on our dynasty tool grades. Here’s how he stacks up against similar profiles.

    In standard points leagues, Simpson’s lack of power limits his ceiling as he’s a near-zero in home runs and RBIs. But in category formats, he’s a potential game-changer. With the ability to lead the league in stolen bases and contribute meaningfully to batting average and runs, Simpson offers upside in the right roster build.

    Defensively, the metrics haven’t been kind, but he is young, athletic, and could improve his defensive with more experience. If Simpson can become even an average defender, he should lock down every day playing time. And with that, he could not only lead the league in steals but could even contend for a batting title down the line.

    Cole Young

    Cole Young, a rookie middle infielder for the Seattle Mariners, officially graduated from prospect status this season. While his current slash line of .228/.317/.335 and 91 wRC+ doesn’t jump off the page, his plate discipline tells a more encouraging story. With a 10.6% walk rate and just an 18.6% strikeout rate, Young is showing he’s not overmatched by big-league pitching.

    At just 21 years old, Young is developing at the major league level, and the underlying metrics suggest some untapped potential. His bat speed sits right around league average at 71.6 mph, and his bat path length is just shorter than average at 6.8 feet. What is more intriguing is his power potential. Despite not being known for his power, Young has already posted a max exit velocity of 114.1 mph and a pull air rate of 25.3%, both well above average. These traits align with several established hitters who’ve turned similar profiles into legitimate power threats.

    Young’s skill set draws favorable comps to players like Ian Happ, Jurickson Profar, and Colt Keith, versatile contributors with solid discipline and some pop. Here’s how he currently tacks up in our dynasty tool grades:

    Young makes for a compelling buy-low candidate in dynasty formats. His surface stats may be underwhelming, but the underlying data points to a player with above-average discipline, average to plus hit tool, and emerging power. If his bat continues to develop, there is a path to becoming a well-rounded contributor in both real life and fantasy.

    Isaac Collins

    Isaac Collins is a late bloomer, playing his rookie season at age 27. He has made the most of his opportunity, posting a 2.6 fWAR through his first 110 games while slashing .271/.370/.420 with 15 stolen bases. His 12.4% walk rate is backed by an elite 19.7% chase rate, ranking in the 90th percentile, which gives him a stable OBP floor and added value in OBP formats

    While Collins doesn’t flash standout power, he has shown just enough pop to stay relevant. He hit double-digit home runs in both 2023 and 2024 in the Brewers’ minor league system, and projects for 10–15 homers annually at the major league level. Interestingly, he appeared on the same swing metric list as Cole Young, suggesting there may be slightly more untapped power potential.

    Collins profiles more as a versatile fourth outfielder, with the potential for more if he can tap into consistent in-game power. His dynasty tool grades mirrors players like Jared Triolo and Jake Fraley, part-time players who have not carved out everyday roles.

    Heading into his age-28 season in 2026, it’s unlikely Collins takes a major developmental leap. What we’re seeing now is probably close to his true talent level. For fantasy purposes, he is best viewed as a late-round flier or a bench piece in deep redraft leagues. He can be useful in-season, especially in Draft Champions or formats where playing time is king, but his long-term outlook is murky. Without prospect pedigree or youth on his side, Collins will need to keep producing to hold onto his role.

    Follow us on X @2BScoopBaseball and @DoubleScoopBaseball on IG and let us know any feedback or questions you have.

  • Roto Fantasy Baseball Saves Strategy: Top Non-Closers and Bullpen Roles to Watch – July 2025

    Roto Fantasy Baseball Saves Strategy: Top Non-Closers and Bullpen Roles to Watch – July 2025

    If your Roto fantasy team is desperately hunting for saves, like mine, this post is for you. We’ll spotlight shifting bullpen situations across the MLB and break down the top 15 non-closer relievers to roster who could step into ninth-inning roles. Here is a link to the May Fantasy Baseball Saves strategy post to review earlier callouts.

    In fantasy terms, a “handcuff” refers to the next man up for saves, similar to backup running backs in fantasy football whose value spikes if the starter goes down. These rankings were built by analyzing bullpen usage, skill sets, and speculating the likelihood of future save chances. To qualify for the list, each pitcher must currently not be serving as their team’s designated closer.

    For a full look at MLB bullpen depth, including closers, setup men, middle, and long relievers by team, check out FanGraph’s Closer Depth Chart tool. It’s a must have resource for fantasy owners trying to stay ahead of the save market.

    Top 15 Closer Handcuffs

    1. Griffin Jax – High-leverage usage, elite K–BB%, and next in line behind Duran
    2. Randy Rodríguez – Dominant since mid-June, rising leverage usage, and Doval insurance
    3. Cade Smith – Electric stuff, rising usage, and potential closer of the future for Guardians
    4. Dennis Santana – breakout year, could earn saves if Bednar is traded
    5. Jose A. Ferrer – Top candidate to replace Finnegan if traded, elite changeup/sinker mix
    6. Abner Uribe – Triple-digit velocity, elite strikeout upside, and setup role
    7. Matt Brash – High K-rate and swing-and-miss stuff, insurance for Munoz
    8. Bryan Abreu – Setup man behind Hader, with closer-worthy metrics.
    9. Lucas Ercerg – Veteran with closing experience, better underlying skills than Estevez
    10. Phil Maton – Veteran with closing experience and strong command
    11. Garret Cleavinger – High-leverage lefty with strong whiff rates and committee appeal
    12. Jason Adams – Proven closer skills, insurance for Robert Suarez
    13. Luke Weaver – Versatile arm, insurance for Devin Williams
    14. Matt Strahm – Versatile lefty with strong ratios and committee save potential
    15. Reed Garrett – Strong ratios and usage trends, insurance for Edwin Diaz

    Team Reviews

    Arizona Diamondbacks

    Current Closer: Kevin Ginkel

    Next Up: Kendall Graveman

    Injured List: AJ Puk, Justin Martinez, Shelby Miller

    The Diamondbacks have been hit hard with bullpen injuries this season with AJ Puk, Justin Martinez, Shelby Miller, Ryan Thompson, and Jalen Beeks all landing on the IL. With their top three closer options on the IL, the team has now turned to Kevin Ginkel in save situations. Anthony DeScalfini has also recently acquired a pair of three inning saves but would not expect consistent save opportunities.

    Ginkel, who played a key bullpen role in their 2023 postseason run to the World Series, has previous closing experience with 15 career saves. However, this year has been rough. He has posted a 7.99 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP, with this his K percent dipping down to 23.7% this year and his BB percent doubling to 11.4%. His four-seam fastball has lost velocity, dropping from an average of 96.0 mph to 94.9 mph, and his slider has slowed from 87.4 mph to 84.8 mph. He started the season late due to shoulder inflammation and should keep an eye on his four-seam velocity trends.

    Kendall Graveman and Anthony DeSclafani remain names to watch in this bullpen. Graveman would likely get the first shot at 9th inning duties if Ginkel is removed from the role. Meanwhile, DeSclafani’s recent multi-inning saves, two since June 23rd, suggest the team might use him creatively depending on game flow and depth issues.

    In NFC and other roto formats, Ginkel should be rostered for save upside. But his struggles and diminished velocity make him a risky hold, and Arizona’s bullpen could undergo more changes soon.

    Chicago White Sox

    Current Closer: Grant Taylor

    Next Up: Jordan Leasure/Steven Wilson

    Grant Taylor has been with the White Sox since June 10th and already leads the bullpen in saves this season with three. Although he was used as a starter in the majority of his brief minor league stint, just 46 innings, Taylor now finds himself anchoring the ninth inning. While this role change may not last his full career given his previous work as a starter, it seems the White Sox plan to use him exclusively out of the bullpen for the 2025 season.

    Taylor’s arsenal is electric. His four-seam fastball averages 99.0 mph with cut movement and has generated a 33.7 percent whiff rate. If qualified, that would place him among the top ten in the league for four-seam whiff rate. His 85.6 mph 12–6 curveball, along with a cutter and slider, rounds out a set of high-velocity, sharp-breaking pitches that profile well for late-inning work.

    Jordan Leasure and Steven Wilson currently back up the rear of this bullpen. If Taylor needs rest or hits a rough patch, Leasure is the likeliest candidate to get the next shot at closing.

    Taylor’s stuff is filthy and could make a fast impact, hopefully more fantasy impact if the White Sox win more games in the second half. In Roto formats, he’s a must-add if still available and looking for saves. Dynasty managers should also take notice, Taylor brings legit upside as a long-term relief option if he stays in the closer role, especially for rebuilding teams looking to take a flyer on an emerging arm at a fair price.

    Los Angeles Dodgers

    Current Closer: Alex Vesia

    Next up: Kirby Yates

    IL: Tanner Scott, Michael Kopech, Brusdar Graterol, Blake Treinen, & Evan Phillips

    Tanner Scott led the Dodgers with 19 saves before landing on the injured list due to elbow inflammation. With Scott sidelined, Alex Vesia and Kirby Yates are the top candidates handling ninth-inning duties.

    Vesia has been the more effective pitcher in 2025 and appears to be the top option while Scott is out. Yates picked up the most recent save on July 21stagainst the Twins and has logged a higher percentage of high-leverage appearances,47 percent compared to Vesia’s 44 percent (factoring save opportunities and holds over total outings). Though Yates did follow up on July 23rdin an 8th inning appearance in which Vesia had to come in and finish the inning due to Yates struggles.

    Statistically, Vesia holds an edge across the board:

    Dodgers RP 2025 stats

    With better overall efficiency, Vesia is the recommended pickup while Scott remains sidelined. That said, Yates is a viable contingency bid and may get the occasional save opportunity in the right matchup.

    If Scott’s absence stretches deeper into the season, expect both to be in the mix, but bet on the talent and pickup Vesia if searching for saves.

    Miami Marlins

    Current Closer(s): Ronny Henriquez, Anthony Bender, & Calvin Faucher

    Miami’s bullpen has been a headache for fantasy managers, with six pitchers recording at least a save and four pitchers with three or more saves. The lack of clarity makes this one of the least secure closer situations in baseball.

    The best way to forecast save opportunities is by examining recent performance and high-leverage usage. Here’s how the trio stacks up since June 16th:

    Marlins RP stats since 6/16/25

    Henriquez is the strongest option moving forward. He leads the team in saves over the past few weeks, generates elite strikeouts with a high-riding four-seam fastball, and just beats out Bender in high-leverage deployment. His secondary mix of a sweeper, slider, and changeup gives him a complete arsenal for late-inning success.

    Bender is next in line. He has been sharp recently and frequently used in high-leverage spots, but his strikeout rate has slipped below typical closer standards. The Marlins are likely to ride his hot streak for now, and his sinker-sweeper combo has helped him limit walks and rack up soft contact.

    Faucher, despite leading the club in saves this season, has faded from the ninth-inning conversation of late. His stuff is respectable, but lower whiff rates and the emergence of Henriquez have put his closing opportunities in jeopardy.

    Take a shot on Henriquez in Miami if looking for saves but note that the Marlins could keep a closer by committee approach with Bender getting opportunities as well.

    San Francisco Giants

    Current Closer: Camilo Doval

    Next up: Randy Rodríguez & Ryan Walker

    The Giants are 53–49 and sitting just a few games back of a Wild Card spot. With playoff ambitions running high under Buster Posey’s leadership, the Giants bullpen will remain under tight watch. Ryan Walker started the season with the closer role, but Doval has taken over ninth-inning duties over the past few months.

    Doval has done a serviceable job with 15 saves out of 19 chances and a 2.89 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP. Recently the Giants closer position looks a little more open for discussion, keeping in mind the Giants having removed Doval from closer duties in the past.

    Randy Rodríguez is emerging as a strong case for closer duties. Since mid-June, he has been lights out and has outperformed Doval across almost any metric. Here is a high-level breakdown of how the trio has performed since June 16th:

    Giants RP stats since 6/16/25

    Rodríguez is a speculative add in roto leagues. If he continues to earn trust in big spots, save chances may follow. Ryan Walker also remains in contention for possible save opportunities if Doval’s struggles continue, however I would take the bet on Rodríguez whose been performing the best and who’s use has been trending up. For fantasy managers chasing end-of-season saves, Randy Rodríguez makes for a potential stash.

    Washington Nationals

    Current Closer: Kyle Finnegan

    Next Up: Jose A. Ferrer

    Kyle Finnegan has quietly built a solid career in Washington, racking up 107 saves and ranking fifth on the franchise’s all-time leaderboard. With the Nationals sitting at 41–60 and Finnegan set to hit free agency this offseason, he’s a prime trade candidate ahead of the deadline.

    If Finnegan is dealt, his new team may view him more as a setup option than a true closer. His 3.68 career ERA and 23.0 percent strikeout rate are respectable but not elite, and there’s no guarantee he’ll retain ninth-inning duties in a new bullpen.

    That opens the door in Washington for Jose A. Ferrer. Ferrer leads the team with 18 holds, far ahead of the next guy, Brad Lord (7), and has consistently been deployed in high-leverage spots. While he doesn’t boast a high strikeout rate, Ferrer excels at limiting walks and home runs, and his pitch mix is built for late-inning success:

    • Sinker (71%): A 97.4 mph power sinker that generates ground balls and keeps hitters off balance
    • Changeup (22%): Used primarily against righties, it carries a 42.4 percent whiff rate and a .213 opponent batting average
    • Slider (7%): Thrown almost exclusively to lefties, it’s held hitters to a .154 average with a 40.0 percent whiff rate

    With Jorge López released in June, Ferrer stands as the most likely successor if Finnegan is moved. He is not a prototypical strikeout-heavy closer, but his command and pitch efficiency make him a strong speculative add in Roto formats ahead of the deadline.

    Fantasy managers should consider stashing Ferrer before the deadline, if Finnegan is traded, Ferrer’s value could spike overnight. If Finnegan stays in Washington, Ferrer can go back to waivers.

    Follow us on X @2BScoopBaseball or @DoubleScoopBaseball on IG and reach out with any comments, feedback or questions!

  • Rookie Analysis & Tool Grades: July 2025

    Rookie Analysis & Tool Grades: July 2025

    The 2025 rookie class continues to show out, with Shane Smith, Jacob Wilson, and Jacob Misiorowski being named to this year’s All-Star Game. Smith was spotlighted in our May Rookie Review and now will turn the focus to other rising stars.

    From the Athletics’ exciting rookies, Jacob Wilson and Nick Kurtz, to emerging names to know like Agustín Ramírez and Noah Cameron, we’re breaking down season-to-date stats, custom tool grades, and long-term outlooks.

    Please reference past rookie posts if wanting to learn more about the DoubleScoop tool grades.

    Jacob Wilson

    We flagged Jacob Wilson as an honorable mention in our April breakout list, noting:

    “Elite hit tool comparable to Arraez and Kwan. Think there could be a little more power to develop in Wilson’s bat vs the others but would still cap Wilson at 15 homeruns at his peak.”

    Now, just months later, Wilson has skyrocketed from sleeper status to superstar, voted as the starting shortstop for the American League in this year’s All-Star Game. He’s also emerged as the frontrunner for the AL Rookie of the Year, thanks to a slash line of .332/.375/.462 over 87 games, with 9 HR / 44 R / 42 RBI / 5 SB.

    Wilson’s calling card is his 80-grade hit tool, rivaling Arraez in bat-to-ball precision. He’s posted an elite 91.2% contact rate and trimmed his strikeout rate down to 7.7%, both top-five metrics among qualified hitters. Beyond his hit tool, the rest of his profile is modest; his power, discipline, and speed grade out as below average which limit his fantasy upside.

    Jacob Wilson Dynasty Tool Grades

    Wilson has benefitted from Sacramento’s hitter-friendly dimensions. His HR/FB rate is notably higher at home, and Baseball Savant’s park-adjusted HR total suggests he is slightly overperforming in the long ball category. His average expected HR across all parks sits at 6.6 vs his actual 9.

    Jacob Wilson home vs road splits

    Wilson should benefit the next few seasons from a good ballpark but long-term temper expectations on the power as it is currently an extreme contact first approach.

    At 23 years old, Wilson has room to grow, but his current value hinges on his hit tool. He is unlikely to offer much help in power, speed, or fielding (currently sitting at -2 OAA and a .971 fielding percentage), though improved defense may be in his genes thanks to his father’s glove-first profile. He will continue to have a good home park and bat at the top of the core Athletics’ sluggers for the next few years which can help his run production.

    Wilson is a potential sell-high candidate in dynasty formats. The All-Star nod and Rookie of the Year buzz are driving peak interest, making this a prime moment to shop him in your league. Long term, we view him as a borderline top 10 dynasty shortstop, but still lean toward more well-rounded options like Corey Seager, Gunnar Henderson, Francisco Lindor, Zach Neto, Mookie Betts, and CJ Abrams.

    Agustín Ramírez

    Rookie Agustín Ramírez has been a bright spot for a Marlins team searching for franchise building blocks. Splitting time between catcher and designated hitter, he has launched 14 homers and driven in 40 runs across just 66 games, posting a slash line of .249/.296/.487 with a 113 wRC+.

    Ramírez burst onto the scene with a red-hot debut, delivering 3 homers and a 1.043 OPS in his first 8 games. Since then, his production has normalized with a .748 OPS and 103 wRC+, aligning more closely with 2025 expectations.

    Ramírez boasts plus raw power thanks to above-average max exit velocity, bat speed, and barrel rates. That kind of pop allows him to earn extra time at DH, which boosts his volume and fantasy relevance.

    While his OBP leaves room for improvement, Ramírez makes average contact and pairs it with strong quality of contact. He should not drag you down in batting average formats and projects comfortably in the .250 to .275 range.

    He shares similar tools to Junior Caminero and Yandy Díaz. Like Díaz, Ramírez hits the ball hard consistently. The difference lies in batted-ball shape, with Ramirez posting a 46% ground ball rate compared to Díaz’s 50%. That added loft fuels his power upside.

    Agustín Ramírez player comp

    With a foundation of quality contact skills, plus exit velocity, and hard-hit rates, Ramírez ranks as a top 10 dynasty catcher. His dual usage behind the plate and at DH allows for expanded playing time, resulting in strong counting stats. While he doesn’t offer much speed at the moment and the plate discipline is still developing, his offensive skill set is useful with catcher eligibility.

    Make sure he is rostered in dynasty and redraft formats. Ramírez has the tools to settle in as a reliable 20-plus homer contributor who will not tank your batting average, while also taking advantage of lineup versatility in Miami.

    Nick Kurtz

    Nick Kurtz wasted no time announcing his arrival, torching the minor leagues with a .344/.440/.712 line across just 33 games from Single A to Triple A. A standout bat from Wake Forest, Kurtz was always viewed as an advanced hitter, but his quick rise has still been amazing.

    Now fresh off being named the AL Rookie of the Month for June, Kurtz owns a 139 wRC+ with 17 home runs through 58 games. Projected over a full season, that power pace translates to a 47-homer campaign.

    One of the most impressive aspects of Kurtz’s rookie season is his steady improvement. His OPS has ticked up each month so far, showing a positive development that validates his prospect pedigree and quick promotions. While the upward trend can’t last forever, early signs point to a slugger who is learning on the fly and evolving.

    Nick Kurtz 2025 month to month splits

    Kurtz checks every power box. With elite bat speed, barrel rate, and hard-hit metrics, he looks ready to join the league’s top tier of home run threats. His bat speed averages almost 78 miles per hour, which places him in rare territory for exit velocity potential.

    This is the one concern in his profile. Kurtz carries a contact rate of 69%, well below the league average of 77%, and a strikeout rate north of 30%. Like many sluggers with big power and fringe contact skills, streaks and slumps may follow as pitchers adjust. Fortunately, Kurtz shows strong plate discipline and doesn’t chase, which will keep his on-base value afloat through cold spells

    Kurtz profiles as the next-generation version of Matt Olson. Both bring elite slugging and mature approaches, but Kurtz may carry more risk in batting average due to his current contact limitations. That said, his raw power and bat speed could allow Kurtz power grade to play up more.

    Nick Kurtz vs Matt Olson Player Comp

    Kurtz slots in as a top 10 dynasty first baseman, anchored by his role in a young Athletics’ lineup featuring Jacob Wilson, Lawrence Butler, Tyler Soderstrom, Shea Langeliers, and Brent Rooker. Expect strong yearly RBI and homerun totals, even if the batting average fluctuates year to year.

    Noah Cameron

    Noah Cameron is quietly putting together an impressive rookie campaign, posting a 2.31 ERA and 1.00 WHIP through his first 12 starts. His early-season performance has helped him secure a spot in a surprisingly strong Royals rotation that ranks third in starter ERA at 3.37 for the season.

    Cameron is a crafty left-hander with a deep pitch mix. He features a four-seam fastball (29%), changeup (20%), slider (17%), cutter (17%), and curveball (17%). His fastball velocity sits at just 92.3 miles per hour and lacks standout shape, resulting in the lowest four-seam usage rate among lefties with 30 or more innings pitched.

    His changeup is his bread and butter, showing a 10+ mph separation from the fastball and delivering elite results with a 38.6 percent whiff rate and a .163 opponent batting average. While his slider and curveball are average in velocity and movement, they are serviceable weapons that each generate whiff rates around 30%.

    Screenshot from Baseball Savant, MLB Advanced Media
    Screenshot from Baseball Savant, MLB Advanced Media

    Through his early MLB outings, Cameron has displayed reverse splits, with left-handed hitters having more success against him than righties.

    Noah Cameron L vs R 2025 splits

    As a changeup-first lefty, his fastball and changeup combo naturally play better against right-handed hitters, which could sustain this reverse split trend. His lack of a good fastball to get hitters out will make commanding his breaking balls and off-speed pitches extremely important. Adding a sinker into his mix could possibly help his left-handed splits.

    Cameron is a strong sell-high candidate. His current 2.31 ERA is unlikely to stick, with almost all projection models expecting an ERA north of 4 the rest of season. His .218 BABIP also signals regression is coming. Still, with Ragans and Lorenzon on the IL and an organization that’s biggest internal rotation challengers are Rich Hill and Dallas Keuchel, Cameron is likely safe for now.

    In shallow fantasy leagues, ride the hot hand but view him more as a matchup-dependent pitcher vs a set and forget. In deeper formats, consider trading him while his numbers look great, especially as a secondary piece in a two-for-one deal.

    Chase Dollander

    Entering 2025 as one of baseball’s most promising pitching prospects, Chase Dollander was rated as the number 25 overall prospect by MLB Pipeline. But his rookie campaign has been far from smooth, posting a 6.68 ERA and 1.56 WHIP over 15 starts which led him to be demoted to Triple-A. As a member of the Rockies organization, Dollander faces the unique challenge of mastering his arsenal in the unforgiving environment of Coors Field.

    Pitch Arsenal:

    • Four-Seam Fastball: Thrown nearly half the time (48%) and averaging 97.7 miles per hour, this pitch has strong velocity and gets some arm-side run/sink.
    • Curveball: Dollander’s most effective weapon. He throws it 22% of the time and generates strong horizontal break which has limited opponents to a .152 batting average with a 30.7 percent whiff rate.
    • Cutter: At 89.5 miles per hour, his cutter features an intriguing mix of extra vertical and horizontal break compared to other similar pitches. The pitch acts as a hybrid cutter-slider, though it could be better converting into a true hard slider, similar to Jacob Degrom’s slider.
    • Sinker and Changeup: The sinker and changeup are used at 9% and 8% respectively, with the changeup almost exclusively being used against LHB. Neither have generated strong results this season and are in need of some adjustment.
    Chase Dollander Pitch Statistics

    On the road this season, Dollander has been an around average starting pitcher with a 4.25 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP showing signs of a serviceable major league pitcher. At Coors it has been messy this season with over a 9 ERA. Coors can impact pitches, such as breaking balls typically lose movement. The hitter friendly environment and the Coors effect on his breaking ball could be a big reason why Dollander is struggling at home.

    Chase Dollander home vs road splits

    It’s hard to understand the Rockies sending Dollander back to AAA given their rebuilding status and his prospect pedigree. He is better off learning how to pitch in Coors and developing with the Rockies coaches. He has the arsenal foundation to be a capable starter but will need to develop stronger command/control of his breaking balls and off-speed and make some pitch mix tweaks.

    Chase Dollander custom dynasty tool grades

    In all fantasy formats, it is best to keep him on the waiver wire for now. Even if called up again his starts carry risk due to his home/road splits and poor team context. Until he makes some needed adjustments and can better handle Coors, Dollander remains a watch-list arm with more name value than usable fantasy value.

    Follow us on X @2BScoopBaseball or @DoubleScoopBaseball on IG and reach out with any comments, feedback or questions!

  • Prospect Review: July 2025

    Prospect Review: July 2025

    In this edition of the DoubleScoopBaseball Prospect Review, we shine a light on prospects from every corner of the minor leagues. Some of these prospects are generating buzz, while others flying under the radar but are worthy of some attention. From Dominican Summer League and Complex League long shots with intriguing tools to upper-level talents knocking on the big-league door, we round up the names you need to know.

    Konnor Griffin

    Konnor Griffin was just elevated to the No. 13 spot on MLB Pipeline’s updated Top 100 released July 2nd.  It was a well-earned jump that still feels conservative from a fantasy perspective.

    In his first pro season, Griffin is steamrolling through minor league competition. Not even a promotion to High-A has cooled him off as he’s improved both his walk rate (11.2%) and strikeout rate (20.6%). If he keeps this pace, another promotion to Double-A may not be far off, joining fellow young standouts like Sebastian Walcott and Nelson Rada as one of the few 19-year-olds at Double-A.

    Griffin has stood out in our modeled barrel rate leaderboard and has been amongst the leaders at Single-A and High-A.

    At 6’4”, 225 lbs., Griffin is physically mature and blends raw power with speed. Given the Pirates’ current rebuild, there’s no urgency to rush him to the bigs. Expect him to earn a Double-A promotion sometime in 2025, with a late 2026 MLB debut within reach if he continues to produce at a high level. With minimal internal competition for the future shortstop role in Pittsburgh, the runway is wide open.

    Griffin is one of the only position players in the minors with legitimate 40/40 upside. If you’re in dynasty formats, he should be a top-tier target. Don’t be surprised if he’s a front-runner for the 2027 Rookie of the Year race.

    Sebastian Walcott

    One of my personal favorite prospects in the minors, I got the chance this year to get video of Walcott in Spring Training during live at bats against Nate Eovaldi and Jacob Webb, link to post here. Sebastian Walcott is a 6’4” shortstop from the Bahamas who kicked off the 2025 season in Double-A at just 19 years old. As the youngest qualified hitter at the level, he’s holding his own with a .243/.342/.382 slash line, a 106 wRC+, 8 home runs, and 19 stolen bases through 75 games.

    Walcott is on track to post career bests in strikeout rate (21.7%) across a full minor league season. The age-to-level production is the real headline here and puts him in elite company. For comparison, here’s how current MLB stars performed during their age-19 seasons in Double-A:

    Although the power output is down a bit from previous years, it’s encouraging to see him improve his plate approach against more advanced pitching. He’s flashed 115+ mph max exit velocities in the past and while his current modeled barrel rate (5.8%) is about league average, that’s still an impressive mark for a teenager in Double-A. There’s reason to believe the raw power will translate into more game production with time.

    Walcott possesses a unique blend of plus speed, discipline, and top-grade power potential. That said, there’s some risk baked into his profile. His contact rate sits at 70.9%, and his called-strike-plus-whiff rate (CSW) hovers around 30% which suggests a potential for a 25–30% K-rate in the majors. It is also worth monitoring his defensive development, as he’s already seeing reps at third base and may ultimately shift off shortstop.

    With hot years from Konnor Griffin and Kevin McGonigle, I have not seen Walcott’s name thrown around as often. He profiles as a consensus top 10 fantasy prospect and has the tools to become a future fantasy star regardless of whether he sticks at shortstop or finds a permanent home at the hot corner.

    Eduardo Quintero

    The Dodgers’ farm system continues to burst with top-end talent with Josue De Paula, Zyhir Hope, Alex Freeland, Mike Sirota, and Eduardo Quintero drawing plenty of attention. But the youngest of the bunch, 19-year-old Eduardo Quintero, might have the highest ceiling of them all.

    Through 71 games, Quintero has slashed an eye-popping .305/.419/.541 with 13 HRs and 33 SBs, a 162-game pace of 30 HRs and 75 SB.s. The power and speed aren’t his only assets either. His contact rate sits at a healthy 78.4%, and his 8.1% swinging strike rate shows a strong bat to ball skill as well. His 9.3% modeled barrel rate, more than double the A-ball average of 4.1%, points to a polished blend of contact and power.

    That said, Quintero’s approach at the plate is something to monitor. Though I haven’t seen him live, data suggests a passive approach: a 38.1% swing rate and a 21.1% called strike rate. To put that in perspective, both marks would rank top 10 in MLB among qualified hitters this season. That’s not necessarily a red flag, some of the best hitters in baseball (Juan Soto, Kyle Schwarber, James Wood) thrive with patient approaches. But as Quintero faces tougher pitching, he could possibly benefit from some more selective aggressiveness.

    The Dodgers’ High-A outfield is crowded with talent (Hope, De Paula, Mike Sirota, and Kendall George) so Quintero may need to wait for some organizational movement to see his next test.

    Only ranked as MLB Pipelines 90th ranked prospect, now is the time to strike. In dynasty leagues, he is a must-roster on your leagues prospect spot/roster, particularly in roto formats, where his blend of speed and power gives him 20/40 upside. If you’re making trade deadline pushes, Quintero is the perfect “throw-in” target with star-level upside.

    Jonah Tong

    Couldn’t write my first prospect spotlight without including my biggest pitching crush, Jonah Tong. Drafted in the 7th round out of Georgia Premier Academy in 2022, Tong made his pro debut in 2023 and has been nothing short of electric since. He’s posted a 30%+ K-rate at every stop, and in 2025 he’s taken it to another level, leading all qualified minor leaguers with a jaw-dropping 40.5% strikeout rate

    Tong attacks hitters with a four-seam, curveball, cutter-slider hybrid, and changeup. He operates from a high arm slot with a loose, whip-like delivery that’s drawn comparisons to Tim Lincecum. Listed at 6’1”, 180lbs, Tong maximizes every bit of his frame: dropping into his back leg and exploding through a firm lead leg. Check out him pitching below:

    While his four-seam velocity is average for a right hander, it plays up thanks to great shape. MLB Pipeline reports he averages 20+ inches of induced vertical break (IVB) on the heater, pairing beautifully with a hammer curveball that boasts 65+ inches of vertical drop. That north-south movement tunnels well and dominates both righties and lefties. Tong has also added a Vulcan-grip changeup that’s made big strides in 2025, generating whiffs against RHB and LHB.

    His numbers have been video game like. His combination of elite K%, GB%, and average against (AVG) is practically unprecedented at the Double-A level.

    Nick Pivetta came up when searching for other four-seam/curveball heavy pitchers with high arm slots. Both throw from a steep arm slot and lean on a four-seam/curveball combo. Yet, Tong’s release height is lower, with greater pitch movement, and he’s already flashing a plus changeup, an edge Pivetta never quite developed.

    The Mets may turn to Tong as a late-season call-up if their playoff push intensifies, and time is running out to grab shares in dynasty formats. Pitchers with 30%+ K-rates and 45%+ groundball rates in the majors since 2021 include Corbin Burnes, Garrett Crochet, Shane McClanahan, Tarik Skubal, and Hunter Brown.

    Currently rated MLB Pipeline’s No. 10 pitching prospect and No. 59 overall, Jonah Tong still feels underrated. If he converts even 80% of his current performance to the big leagues, we are looking at another rookie phenom.

    Juneiker Caceres

    Signed out of Venezuela in 2024, Juneiker Caceres wasted no time jumping into pro ball at 16 and dominating both the DSL and Complex levels. Now 17, Caceres is flashing one of the most polished offensive approaches in rookie ball, posting .900+ OPS marks at both stops while walking more than he strikes out.

    In the Florida Complex League, he’s posted an 11.7% strikeout rate, backed by a strong 84.5% contact rate and 6.6% swinging strike rate, showcasing strong bat to ball skills for someone his age. His modeled barrel rate sits just above league average, an encouraging sign for a teenager still maturing physically, listed on FanGraphs as 5’10” and 168 lbs.

    While he’s likely an average runner, Caceres has primarily played left and rightfield, projecting long-term as a corner outfielder. What he may lack in premium defensive value, he makes up for with an intriguing offensive foundation: plus hit tool, high OBP profile, and average power. As he continues to build out, the power could uptick which would make him a more exciting profile.

    These are the types of CPX-level bats that can catch fire quickly in the public eye, just ask anyone who was early on Luis Peña or Jesus Made. While Caceres may not have their defensive versatility or speed, his high-contact, high-discipline bat gives him a high-floor trajectory that could take off with growth in his power.

    For dynasty managers with deep benches or open prospect slots, Caceres is exactly the type of early dart throw that could yield major returns.

    Follow us on X @2BScoopBaseball or @DoubleScoopBaseball on IG and reach out with any comments, feedback or questions!

  • Breakout Dynasty Targets – June

    Breakout Dynasty Targets – June

    The last dynasty breakout article in April dived into early dynasty breakout targets like Ben Rice, Tyler Soderstrom, Jonathan Aranda, Jacob Wilson, and more. Now, as the 2025 campaign pushes past the halfway mark, it is time to revisit more dynasty breakouts.

    This list focuses on current MLB players who have taken tangible steps forward in their development and are positioned to breakout and have dynasty league relevance.

    Hitters

    Evan Carter

    Carter has been one of the few bright spots for the Texas Rangers this season. After recovering from some back issues and and opening the season in the minors, he’s now rounding into form. Among Rangers hitters with 90+ plate appearances, Carter currently leads the team in wRC+ (128), wOBA (.352), and OPS (.797).

    While Carter didn’t light up the minors earlier in 2025, there are notable changes in his approach at the Major League level through his first 28 games this season

    The biggest change is Carter’s newfound aggressiveness at the plate. According to Baseball Savant, the MLB average swing rate is 47.3%. In 2023 and 2024, Carter’s swing rates sat well below that mark at just 34.5% and 38.3%, respectively. But in 2025, he has bumped it up to 44.4%, approaching league average.

    Being overly passive can cause good hitters to miss out on pitches they can hit early in counts. It can also lead to deeper counts, increasing both strikeouts and walks. Carter’s increase in z-swing rate appears to be paying off: his strikeout rate has dropped from 26.5% in 2024 to just 17% so far in 2025.

    Another big development is his improved quality of contact. Carter’s barrel rate has risen to 10.4%, up from 5.9% last year. He flashed similar pop in a small sample back in 2023, the year he became a postseason hero for the Rangers. This season, he is combining a career-low strikeout rate, double-digit barrel percentage, and more aggression in the box.

    At just 22 years old, our DoubleScoop tool grades project Carter to keep taking steps forward. His current dynasty tool grades are as follows:

    One possible fantasy comp is an outfield version of CJ Abrams, who provides a power and speed blend. Our dynasty grades expect an uptick in Carter’s tools due to his young age (22), however I expect there could be some power regression as we get a larger 2025 sample. Even with some pullback, he has the tools to be a perennial 20-20 threat.

    Keep an eye on his zone swing rate (Z-Swing%). If he continues hunting strikes more aggressively, he will be better positioned to capitalize on his hit and power tools.

    Miguel Vargas

    Miguel Vargas has secured every day at-bats in 2025, his first full season with the White Sox. While his season-long slash line of .236/.314/.426 (108 wRC+) may not jump off the page, he’s been heating up. Since May 1, he has posted a .246/.320/.497 line with a 127 wRC+.

    Vargas carries prospect pedigree, having been ranked No. 37 overall by MLB Pipeline in 2023 while with the Dodgers. Still, coming into this season, he held a career batting average under .200 through his first 171 big-league games from 2022 to 2024.

    There were flashes beneath the surface in 2023 and 2024. Vargas had an above-average chase rate and pull-air percentage in both 2023 and 2024. Now in 2025, he’s showing improvements in barrel rate, average exit velocity, and zone-contact rate, positive steps toward unlocking his potential.

    He has also made some subtle adjustments in the batter’s box. Per Baseball Savant, Vargas has moved back in the box, shifting from 28.5 to 30.2 inches (league average is 27.8),and has opened his stance from 1 degree to 6 degrees (league average is 11%). While minor, these tweaks may be helping him tap into more power.

    While Vargas doesn’t boast elite exit velos, bat speed, or barrel numbers, he’s maximizing his raw pop with excellent pull-air rates, similar to how players like Isaac Paredes and Alex Bregman succeed. If he sustains these gains, Vargas could become a foundational piece in the middle of the White Sox lineup moving forward.

    Pitchers

    Will Warren

    I mentioned Will Warren in our first rookie review article earlier this year, and if you haven’t yet, it’s worth a quick read as a refresher. While his surface stats (4.66 ERA and 1.33 WHIP) don’t scream breakout, there’s a lot more going on beneath the hood. Warren has a 29.4% strikeout rate backed by a 31.0% CSW%. Among starting pitchers with at least 20 innings (4+ starts), that K% ranks top 15.

    A key reason for his continued ascent is how he’s diversified his pitch mix over the season:

    Earlier in the year, Warren leaned heavily on his SI/SW against RHB and FF/CH against LHB. Now, he is showcasing a more refined arsenal. His best fastball remains the sinker, with above-average vertical movement and average velocity (93.1 MPH). The 4-seam averages 93.4 MPH and lacks great shape but still generates a 28.3% whiff rate. Lastly, the sweeper (3038 RPM) and curveball (2908 RPM) both feature excellent spin rates, leading to plus movement and whiff rates above 30%.

    Since May, Warren has kept his walk rate below 10% every month after opening the season at 11.4% in March/April. That early command inconsistency also aligned with his worst ERA split (5.63), which improved to 4.82 in May and currently sits at 3.47 in June

    The biggest weakness for Warren in 2025 has been left-handed hitters.

    LHB are batting .522 against his sweeper which he throws around 18% to LHB. I’d like to see Warren adjust his approach to LHBs: lean more on the four-seam, changeup, and curveball while mixing in the sinker and sweeper as show-me offerings below 5% usage. While Stuff+ only grades his changeup at 85, lefties are hitting just .220 against it with a 26.7% whiff rate. Meanwhile, his curveball has a Stuff+ of t 115, with LHBs batting .250 and whiffing 42.9% of the time against the pitch.

    He already uses a similar strategy vs. RHBs, favoring the sinker, sweeper, and four-seam while rarely throwing the changeup or curve. That said, there can be a similar case made for using the changeup and curveball as show me pitches against RHB.

    Warren is breaking out in his first full MLB season. He is showing small improvements in his BB%, evolving his pitch mix, and emerging as one of the leagues upcoming K leaders. The next step is limiting damage against lefties, especially in a tough home park that plays up for LHB. Still, with top-tier swing-and-miss ability, he profiles as a potential top-50 dynasty SP with upside for more at his peak.

    Michael Soroka

    Michael Soroka has already experienced a career’s worth of highs and lows while still just 27. Debuting at age 20, he found immediate success in the majors, posting ERAs of 3.51, 2.68, and 3.95 in his first three seasons while making the NL All-Star team in 2019. Then came the setbacks. Soroka tore his Achilles in 2020, and re-tore the same Achilles during his comeback attempt, requiring a second surgery. In total, he missed roughly three full MLB seasons due to these injuries.

    Now in 2025, in his third year back, Soroka is beginning to flash the form that once made him one of the game’s most promising young arms, despite what his 5.06 ERA might suggest. Among the biggest improvements this season:

    • Career-best 4-seam and sinker velocity: 94.3 and 94.2 MPH, respectively
    • Highest K% of his career at 26.5%
    • BB% down to 6.3%, in line with early-career levels
    • On pace for a career-best WHIP of 1.09

    Another development: Soroka has scrapped his longtime slider in favor of a slurve. This new pitch brings 100 more RPM of spin, 4 additional inches of vertical break, and roughly 8 more inches of horizontal movement. It’s been effective with opposing hitters posting just a .210 wOBA against the slurve, compared to .263 wOBA against his slider in 2024.

    While the surface ERA remains inflated, his 3.19 xERA indicates strong potential for positive regression. Even more compelling: his 2025 K-BB% is better than that of Paul Skenes, Max Fried, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Spencer Schwellenbach.

    At 27, Soroka appears to be entering his prime. He is shaping up to be a high-floor SP with plus command and steadily improving strikeout skills with his increased velocity and new usage of his slurve. I have been targeting him across leagues, expecting a strong second half from a pitcher quietly putting it back together. A free agent after the 2025 season, he could be a dark-horse trade candidate this season which could further improve his fantasy appeal.

    Follow us on X @2BScoopBaseball or @DoubleScoopBaseball on IG and reach out with any comments, feedback or questions!

  • Dynasty Buy-Low Targets: June Edition

    Dynasty Buy-Low Targets: June Edition

    It’s time to revisit some intriguing buy-low dynasty candidates as we head into June. Since this list is dynasty-focused, we’re taking a long-term view: some of these players may be better targets for 2026, with 2025 serving as a proving ground, or a recovery year for those currently sidelined.

    This breakdown leans on DoubleScoop’s custom tool grades, which assess both season-to-date performance and dynasty value by factoring in development arcs and aging curves. With that in mind, let’s dive into a fresh set of buy-low hitters and pitchers to target in dynasty leagues.

    Hitters

    Luis Robert Jr.

    Luis Robert Jr. has become somewhat forgotten as part of a Chicago White Sox team that just last year endured the worst seasons in MLB history, a mark that the Rockies might eclipse this year (yikes). Robert is only two seasons removed from a career-best 2023 campaign in which he slashed .264/.315/.542 with 38 home runs and 20 stolen bases in his age-25 season.

    If you looked closely enough back then, you could spot the weaknesses that have since become plagued LRJ. Breaking down his performance by pitch type since 2023, Robert has whiffed on breaking balls at a 38%+ rate annually, with that number climbing to 40% against offspeed offerings. These high whiff rates help explain the rise in his strikeout percentage (K%), which has topped 30% in both the 2024 and 2025 seasons. While a K% over 30% can limit batting average upside, it doesn’t necessarily spell doom. Players like Oneil Cruz, Brent Rooker, Colton Cowser, and Eugenio Suárez have all carried similar K% marks while still posting a 100+ wRC+.

    The good news for Robert is that he’s still hitting the ball hard, boasting a 115.8 mph max exit velocity and a 44.6% hard-hit rate so far this season. He’s also more aggressive on the basepaths, with 21 stolen bases already and is on pace to surpass his career high of 23 set in 2024. Despite recent struggles, Robert still possesses a rare combination of raw power and speed that once made him a top prospect in all of baseball.

    One clear sign of growth in 2025 is his walk rate, which has jumped to 10.1% from a career average of 6.1%. This improvement looks sustainable, thanks to a career-best 31.7% chase rate, well below his career average of 38.8%.

    LRJ currently grades out with the following DoubleScoop dynasty tool grades: 45 Hit, 60 Power, 60 Discipline, and 75 Speed. The mix of plus power and discipline, paired with top-end speed, makes him an electric raw talent. I see LRJ as an “Oneil Cruz Lite”, not quite the same raw power, but a similar skill set.

    A change of scenery could eventually help unlock more from his tools, but for now, he remains with the White Sox at a team-friendly price, with club options in 2026 and 2027. I view Robert as a strong buy-low candidate: a player with plus power, plate discipline, and speed who, at just 27 years old, still has time to make key adjustments and return to All-Star form.

    Royce Lewis

    Royce Lewis recently re-aggravated his left hamstring, the same injury that sidelined him earlier this season. Unfortunately, this continues a trend for Lewis, who has been plagued by injuries throughout his MLB career, maxing out at just 82 games played in 2024. The talent has always been evident for Lewis, the first overall pick by the Twins in the 2017 draft. Now 26 years old and already having undergone two ACL reconstruction surgeries, he’s fighting to stay healthy and contribute meaningfully at the big-league level.

    When healthy, Lewis has been a strong contributor, slashing .258/.320/.468 with a 119 wRC+. According to Baseball-Reference, his 162-game career averages are 31 home runs, 101 RBI, and 81 runs, All-Star level production if he can ever sustain a full season.

    He has appeared primarily at third base throughout his career (124 games) with an additional 43 appearances as a DH. Coming off yet another hamstring injury, it is worth considering whether he might be better suited for more time at DH moving forward. While most of his injuries have occurred while baserunning, staying off his feet between at-bats and focusing on recovery could help him stay on the field longer

    There is no clear timeline for his return in 2025, but in dynasty leagues, now might be the time to buy low. Fantasy managers fatigued by his constant injuries may be ready to move on, creating opportunity for those willing to take the risk. Even if he transitions to a primary DH role in the future, he will retain 3B eligibility for 2026 and could log enough appearances there to maintain it in future seasons. Lewis’ combination of a plus hit tool (60) and power (60) makes him one of the most tooled-up hitters in baseball when healthy.

    Brenton Doyle

    Doyle finds himself on a Rockies team that’s on pace to post the worst season in MLB history. Unfortunately, he has not done much to change the momentum, currently sporting a 41 wRC+ and a -0.7 fWAR.

    That said, Doyle has earned his reputation with standout defense, winning Gold Glove awards in each of his first two seasons. In 2024, he showed he could be more than a glove-first player, slashing .260/.317/.446 with 23 homers and 30 steals. But so far in 2025, that production has regressed as he is slashing just .191/.251/.393 with 5 home runs and 7 stolen bases.

    One factor worth flagging is Doyle’s .238 BABIP, which sits well below his career average of .292. Given that his batted-ball profile (GB%, LD%, FB%) remains largely unchanged, this dip suggests he may be experiencing some bad luck and is due for positive regression. His strikeout and walk rates are nearly identical to last season’s marks as well.

    There are encouraging signs under the hood: Doyle has maintained a strong barrel rate at 11.9% in 2025 and raised his hard-hit rate to 45.8% (up from 40.9% in 2024). According to our DoubleScoop tool grades, he’s shown year-over-year improvement in his hit and power tools, though his discipline and speed have taken minor steps back.

    At 27, Doyle is in his athletic prime and not yet facing age-related decline. He has the tools to rebound to his 2024 production levels and remains a viable candidate for consistent 20-20 output, thanks to his elite defense securing regular playing time. Consider buying the dip in dynasty leagues as Doyle and the Rockies quite literally have nowhere to go but up.

    Pitchers

    Ben Brown

    Ben Brown, a 33rd-round pick by the Phillies back in 2017, is now in his second MLB season at age 25 after spending six years developing in the minors (excluding the canceled 2020 season). Even more impressively, he’s managed to carve out a rotation spot on one of the top three teams in the National League.

    Brown operates with a three-pitch mix: four-seam fastball (58%), knuckle curve (38%), and changeup (4%), with the changeup being a weapon he deploys almost exclusively against left-handed hitters. While starters typically benefit from a deeper arsenal, Brown’s knuckle curve is a true standout, generating a 44% whiff rate on the season

    The Cubs’ current rotation includes Boyd, Rea, Brown, Taillon, and Horton, with Shota Imanaga rehabbing in the minors. This setup carries some risk that Brown could be shifted back to the bullpen, a role he’s filled before in both 2024 and 2025. That said, I believe he will continue to get opportunities to start in the long run, whether with the Cubs or elsewhere.

    There is a bit of Framber Valdez in Brown’s profile, especially his heavy curveball usage and ability to get elite whiff rates off that pitch alone. For further development, though, Brown will likely need to add a fourth pitch he can use effectively against right-handed batters. Currently, he leans on his four-seamer and curve, but righties are hitting .318 against his fastball with a meager 10.3% whiff rate. A sinker or sweeper could help him keep RHB off balance over longer outings.

    If you’re looking ahead to 2026 and aiming to build some cheap, upside pitching depth, Ben Brown is a name to target. He is likely still flying under the radar in many dynasty leagues and can be acquired at a discount making him a savvy stash candidate with breakout potential.

    Michael McGreevy

    McGreevy, currently ranked as the Cardinals’ No. 10 prospect by MLB Pipeline, was just called up for a spot start against the White Sox and didn’t disappoint. He tossed 5 innings, allowing 3 hits, 1 walk, and 1 earned run while striking out 5. Through his first three starts in 2025, McGreevy owns a 2.70 ERA, a strong 0.84 WHIP, and a 20.0% K-BB%.

    Baseball Savant lists his pitch usage as follows: four-seam fastball (25%), sinker (23%), sweeper (17%), cutter (14%), slider (10%), changeup (5%), and curveball (5%). The sweeper and slider feature similar shape and velocity, so it’s possible there’s some pitch classification overlap but will need to keep an eye on his slider/sweeper usage. Regardless, this is more of a deep mix than a dominating one. McGreevy generates a league-average 24.4% whiff rate, supported by a 93 overall Stuff+, with his sinker and slider both grading out as his best pitches at 100.

    Getting ahead of hitters and commanding the zone have been his biggest strengths. He sports a 66% first-pitch strike rate and a great 3.1% walk rate. Though his strikeout rate is average (23.1%), he limits walks and hard contact, thanks in part to his excellent 125 Location+. His ability to sequence effectively and throw strikes across seven pitches has helped him succeed without elite stuff.

    The Cardinals’ rotation is currently full, with Sonny Gray, Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas, Matthew Liberatore, and Eric Fedde all locked into spots, so McGreevy may continue in a swingman or spot-start role in the short term. But turning 25 this season and already built up to 150 innings in 2023 and 2024, he’s fully stretched out for a starter’s workload. He should be the next man up if an opening arises in 2025 and will be in the mix for a rotation spot in 2026, when Mikolas and Fedde hit free agency.

    If hunting for comps, McGreevy’s floor could be that of Michael Soroka, with a ceiling closer to George Kirby.

    The likely outcome probably falls somewhere between the two as a high-floor, command-first righty who can eat innings and anchor the middle/back of a rotation. He is a name to keep on your watchlist or stash now in deeper formats.

    Robert Gasser

    Gasser, 26, is currently rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, which he underwent in 2024. His goal is to return to action before the end of the 2025 season. Before the injury, Gasser impressed during his first five big-league starts for the Brewers, posting a 2.57 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and an eye-popping 0.9% walk rate. While his K% and BB% were somewhat out of line with his minor league numbers, the early returns showed a pitcher unafraid to challenge hitters despite generating just a 14% strikeout rate.

    In 2024, Gasser had a five-pitch mix: sweeper (32%), sinker (26%), four-seamer (18%), changeup (14%), and cutter (9%). Though his velocity is around league average for a lefty, having three distinct fastballs allows him to keep hitters off balance and generate weak contact. His sweeper is his definitive out pitch, generating a 34.5% whiff rate.

    Gasser’s early success hinged on his ability to induce weak contact and his elite command. His 2024 DoubleScoop dynasty tool grades back that up with an 80 induced contact, 45 contact prevention, 80 command, and 55 arsenal. The grades placing him alongside names like Garrett Crochet, Blake Snell, and Tarik Skubal in overall skill grade profiles.

    While the sample size was small, it was an encouraging glimpse into the upside Gasser offers. Originally a second-round pick by the Padres in 2021, he was part of the trade that sent Josh Hader to San Diego and plans to be a part of the Brewers future.

    Long term, I believe in Gasser’s ability to limit hard contact at an elite level, which should help him succeed as a starting pitcher even without high strikeout totals. I expect his K% and BB% to normalize closer to his minor league trends, meaning both rates may tick upward, as that 0.9% BB% likely is not sustainable. One thing to watch as he returns is whether he develops a more effective weapon against right-handed hitters. That could come through refining his current changeup by taking off more velocity and increasing vertical drop or by adding a new pitch entirely. Something with more vertical movement, like a curveball or gyro-slider, would help him create better separation from his current predominantly horizontal profile.

    Command is often the last thing to return after Tommy John, so it will be important to monitor his control during rehab appearances. Gasser profiles similarly to Ranger Suárez, another starter who excels at inducing weak contact despite modest K numbers.

    He is worth stashing in dynasty leagues if you have IL spots or stash spots on the bench. Chances are, Gasser is sitting on a lot of waiver wires right now, and with a smooth return, he has legitimate top-50 SP upside.

    Reach out on X @2BScoopBaseball or @DoubleScoopBaseball on IG with any comments, feedback or questions!

  • Rookie Analysis & Tool Grades: June 2025

    Rookie Analysis & Tool Grades: June 2025

    It has been about a month since the May rookie review so time for a June follow up. On this series I dive into both rookie hitter and pitcher performances’ so far this season and look to provide some outlook into their fantasy usefulness, provide tool grades, as well as find relevant comps for their tool profile.

    One thing I will mention throughout the rookie review series are my DoubleScoop tool grades. Hit, Power, Discipline, and Speed for hitters, and Induced Contact, Contact Prevention, Control, and Arsenal for pitchers. These grades follow the traditional 20–80 scouting scale, where 50 represents MLB average, 20 being the lowest and 80 being the highest. I recommend checking out Fangraphs article – Scouting Explained: The 20-80 Scouting Scale | FanGraphs Baseball – or search online if wanting to understand the 20-80 scale better.

    DoubleScoop Hitter Tools

    • Hit – Grades player on ability to put the ball in play and quality of the contact
    • Power – Grades player on their bat speed, Max EVs, and barrels
    • Discipline – Grades player’s ability to control the strike zone and work walks
    • Speed – Grades player’s sprint speed, aggressiveness, and their efficiency on the basepaths

    DoubleScoop Pitchers Tools

    • Induced Contact – Grades pitcher on ability to limit favorable hitter outcomes
    • Contact Prevention – Grades pitcher’s ability to avoid hitters making contact
    • Control – Grades pitcher’s ability to control their pitches in the zone
    • Arsenal – Grades pitcher on the quality and randomness of their pitches

    Chase Meidroth

    Initially viewed as more of a complementary piece to top catching prospect Kyle Teel and 2024 12th overall pick Braden Montgomery, Meidroth has established himself as the everyday shortstop for the White Sox in 2025. Since May, he’s been locked into either the leadoff or No. 2 spot in the lineup, earning consistent at-bats. That opportunity has paid off, as he’s slashed .298/.383/.382 with a 123 wRC+, 7 SB, and 17 R over 149 plate appearances (33 games started).

    Meidroth calling card is his hit tool, currently graded at a 70 by our DoubleScoop tool grades, along with above average discipline (55) and speed (55). While he should be able to run consistent high batting averages due to his hit tool, he also is not afraid to take his walks. Meidroth at the time of this article, is in the 97th percentile in chase rate, meaning he is one of the best in the league at not chasing pitches out of the strike zone.

    His profile draws similarities to players like Geraldo Perdomo and Santiago Espinal—high-contact hitters with limited power, average-to-above-average speed, and solid plate discipline.

    This profile can be fantasy relevant as we are seeing Perdomo have a 2025 fantasy breakout and already almost breaking his career high in HR and RBIs. In roto leagues, look at Meidroth as a 3-category contributor who will provide a nice batting average floor, solid run production, and around 15-20 SBs over the course of a full season.

    Carlos Narváez

    Carlos Narváez has been a nice surprise for the Red Sox this season, posting a .280/.357/.457 slash line, good for a 126 wRC+ while also providing strong defensive value behind the plate. Though never regarded as a top prospect and failing to make most organizational top prospect lists during his time in the NYY organization, he is certainly leaving his mark around the league. As of the time of writing, he currently ranks 2nd behind Jacob Wilson in fWAR among all rookie hitters according to Fangraphs.

    Narváez grades out with average to above average tools across the board except for his speed, which is often not expected for catchers. He comps similarly to sluggers like Colt Keith (1B/2B/3B) and Brent Rooker (DH/OF) who also are graded out with average Hit tools with plus power and discipline. With Narváez behind the dish, I do not expect him to reach the lofty 30+ HR totals that Rooker has put up during the past few seasons. With 450+ PA, I see Narvaez having the skill set to hit 15-20 HRs which is valuable for a catcher in fantasy leagues.

    Narváez has earned the larger share of playing time over Connor Wong due to his strong defense and hitting this season, but something to note as the Red Sox will still want to find ABs for Wong. Narváez should be started in all two catcher leagues at this point in 2025 and view him as a top-15 catcher in redraft leagues.

    Cam Smith

    Cam Smith made headlines to start the 2025 season making the opening day roster for the Astros with just 32 MiLB games under his belt after being drafted 14th overall by the Cubs in 2024. Not only being challenged by MLB pitchers with limited MiLB experience, Smith is also dealing with learning a new position, having shifted from 3B to RF to find a way to get him into the lineup.

    Results so far have been what you could expect with all that has been thrown at Cam Smith, posting a .246/.325/.363 slash with a 99 wRC+. Players with similar tool grades over the past two seasons are Jarred Kelenic (2024) and Nolan Jones (2025). Kelenic, a highly regarded OF prospect from SEA, also debuted at a young age at just 21 years old but so far has failed to develop into an everyday player.

    Some of these current player comps may frustrate Astros fans, but at just 22 years old, there is still plenty of room for growth for Smith. One glimmer of hope is that Smith has the highest bat speed of the 3 players above averaging 75.2 mph on his swing, meaning there is more raw power that could be unlocked. While I am not a GM or in player development, it makes me wonder if some extra AAA time to work on developing a stronger plate approach without the pressure of playing on the MLB team could benefit Smith in the long-term and avoid following the path of Kelenic.

    Caleb Durbin

    Durbin, an undersized Yankees prospect, was traded to the Brewers system in December 2024 as part of the Yankees aquiring Devin Williams. While never a fixture on top prospect lists, he was a standout in the 2024 Arizona Fall League (AFL) slashing .312/.427/.548 in 24 games.

    Durbin has not transitioned his AFL/minor league production into MLB production yet, slashing just .208/.302/.315 through his first 47 games. Looking under the hood, there are some things to like out of Durbin. Durbin possesses great contact skills, finding himself near the top of the leaderboards in K%, Whiff%, and contact % which is a big reason why his hit tool grades out at an elite level even though he is only batting .208 at the moment.

    Durbin’s not likely to be a double-digit home run threat, maybe peaking at 10 in a season, but that doesn’t mean he can’t carve out fantasy value. His skill set is similar to that of Nico Hoerner, featuring a high-contact bat paired with plus speed.

    I see Durbin being able to turn his season around and a walk-off HR against my Padres for his first big league HR should help his confidence. With an extremely low BABIP of .213, it is not hard to see some positive regression come along and start to see his batting average creep up closer to the .250 – .260 range this season. Getting on base will also allow Durbin to steal more bases, with only 5 on the season so far after posting 30+ steals each full season in the minors.

    While Durbin’s profile is better fit for 2B, the Brewers have Turang locked in at 2B for the near future. I like Durbin in deeper dynasty leagues and will be looking at Durbin in 2026 roto leagues as a late round sleeper.

    Jackson Jobe

    Jobe entered the 2025 season ranked as the Tigers’ top prospect and the No. 5 overall prospect in baseball, according to MLB Pipeline. That only added to the already lofty expectations for the 22-year-old right-hander, who was drafted third overall out of high school in 2021. At the time, scouts and analysts raved about his high-spin slider and overall pitchability.

    Now, just 22 years, Jobe finds himself on the IL with a flexor strain which no clear timetable on his return. Having had multiple personal flexor strains and a UCL strain myself, this is not great news for Jobe who was hoping to be a ROY candidate in 2025.

    Over 10 starts and 49 innings in 2025, his pitch metrics have drawn comps to both Sandy Alcantara, who is returning from Tommy John surgery, and Frankie Montas. Most years, being compared to Alcantara would be a massive compliment, but in 2025, Alcantara has struggled to regain his elite command. Even the lower end of the comp in Montas represents a serviceable MLB starter, though it would be a notable drop-off for someone tabbed as the game’s top pitching prospect just months ago.

    We will have to wait patiently to hear more news on Jobe’s injury and timeline to return to pitching. The Arsenal grade being listed as a 55 is a strong indicator that there is upside for more but will need to either find the right mix across his other pitches outside of his 4-seam and slider or tighten his command to take the next step forward. I’d consider dropping Jobe in redraft leagues unless you have IL stashes until you hear any next update on his injury.

    Ben Casparius

    Casparius has thrived in a relief role with the Dodgers in his rookie year in 2025, posting a 2.93 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 27.3% K-rate, and 4.3% BB-rate in 40 innings (21 appearances). Primarily used a starter in the minors, he now operares as a multi-iinning weapon out of the Dodgers bullpen. He served as an opener on April 23rd (2.2 IP) and got a spot start against the Padres today, going four innings as a wrote this article.

    While Casparius grades out well as a reliever, it looks like the Dodgers are preparing to stretch him out as a starter to help cover a rotation plagued by injuries. To try and project Casparius grades as an SP, I took 2024 grades for the innings that Kris Bubic, Clay Holmes, and Grant Holmes pitched out of the bullpen and compared it to their 2025 grades as starting pitchers. From there I took the average % in change and applied that to his 2025 grades. Below are Casparius 2025 grades as a RP as well as his projected SP tool grades with comps to other similar starters.

    The estimated SP tool projections for Ben Casparius are strong across the board and have intriguing comps, including Ryan Weathers and Jacob Degrom. Casparius has an SP arsenal with his 4-Seam, Sweeper, Cutter, and Curveball mix which he mixes up well against LHP and RHP.

    If stretched out to go five innings consistently, Casparius could become a major fantasy asset as we approach the season’s midpoint. I’m comfortable viewing him as a top-30 SP talent for the rest of 2025. Even with 107.2 innings in 2023 marking his career high, I’m betting that at age 26, and with the Dodgers’ current rotation woes, they’ll let him ride as long as he stays healthy.

    Go snag Casparius off waivers or free agency if he’s still out there, he might just be one of the sneakiest SP values of the season!

    Hunter Dobbins

    Dobbins, ranked as the No. 13 Red Sox prospect ahead of the 2025 season by MLB Pipeline, has managed to hold onto a rotation spot due to a combination of injuries and struggles from other Red Sox arms (Giolito, Houck, Crawford, Fitts). So far, he’s been a serviceable starter, posting a 4.20 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 2025.

    Dobbins features a five-pitch mix made of a 4-seam, slider, curveball, sweeper, and splitter of which he throws all pitches at least 10% of the time. While only striking out hitters 17.9% of the time, he makes up for his lack of K’s by limiting free passes (4.8% BB-rate).

    Dobbins skill profile matches up similarly with Jameson Taillon, a veteran pitcher known for his ability to mix and locate his pitches rather than overpowering stuff. Even though Dobbins is striking hitters out at just a 17.9% rate, his 50-grade contact prevention indicate he may be able to tick up his K% closer to 20%. Notably, his curveball and slider generate strong whiff% at 40% and 30.3% respectively. That said, he will need to continue to refine his off-speed pitch mix as he only generates a 13.3% whiff rate on his 4-seam with hitters batting .313 off the pitch.

    Without a plus fastball,Dobbins does not project as a frontline starter. Dobbins more realistically profiles as a solid 4th starter or lower end 3rd starter during his peak.

    Logan Evans

    Ranked as the #10 Seattle prospect in 2025 by MLB Pipeline, Evans has found himself with opportunities to start this season due to injuries to George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, and Bryce Miller. Evans has a deep arsenal, including a cutter, sweeper, sinker, change-up, 4-seam, and curveball, each thrown over 10% of the time.

    Through seven starts this season, Evans has a 3.38 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 18.0% K-rate, and 7.2% BB-rate. While the ERA and WHIP are respectable, I expect regression from Evans given his below average contact prevention with only league average induced contact.

    Evan’s arsenal could play up with his three different fastballs and his strong command. With improvements to his induced contact, he could see a higher-end comp like Michael Wacha. I do not expect him to improve his contact prevention much as he does not have any pitches with a 30% whiff rate, with the top being his cutter with a 25% whiff rate.

    Evans currently profiles as a back of the rotation arm who should eat innings and be useful in good streaming matchups. His 3-fastballs are a good foundation for a starter and could see improvements in his induced contact if he continues to develop. For now, plan on using Evans as a streamer at home or vs poor offenses.

    Follow us on X @2BScoopBaseball and @DoubleScoopBaseball on IG and let us know any feedback or questions you have.

  • Rookie Analysis & Tool Grades: May 2025

    Rookie Analysis & Tool Grades: May 2025

    Starting a monthly article where I will dive into MLB rookies and how their 1st full season in the MLB is going. Not every rookie who debuted during the previous or current month will be covered but will cover select rookies at a time with a focus on those with significant enough playing time.

    One thing I will mention throughout the article are my personal tool grades. These are Hit, Power, Discipline, and Speed for hitters, and Induced Contact, Contact Prevention, Control, and Arsenal for pitchers. These grades follow the traditional 20–80 scouting scale, where 50 represents MLB average, 20 being the lowest and 80 being the highest. I recommend checking out Fangraphs article – Scouting Explained: The 20-80 Scouting Scale | FanGraphs Baseball – or search online if wanting to understand the 20-80 scale better.

    DoubleScoop Hitter Tools

    • Hit – Grades player on ability to put the ball in play and quality of the contact
    • Power – Grades player on their bat speed, Max EVs, and barrels
    • Discipline – Grades player’s ability to control the strike zone and work walks
    • Speed – Grades player’s sprint speed, aggressiveness, and their efficiency on the basepaths

    DoubleScoop Pitchers Tools

    • Induced Contact – Grades pitcher on ability to limit favorable hitter outcomes
    • Contact Prevention – Grades pitcher’s ability to avoid hitters making contact
    • Control – Grades pitcher’s ability to control their pitches in the zone
    • Arsenal – Grades pitcher on the quality and randomness of their pitches

    With that being covered, lets dive into the rookie tool grades and relevant comparisons.

    Jasson Dominguez

    Mega hyped switch-hitting prospect Jasson Dominguez was given the opening day nod to start 2025. Domínguez has been a staple of dynasty league discussions for years, as he was highly talked about all the way when he was just 16 years old. At just 22, Dominguez is at the age where he could still take a huge leap forward in his progression, making it fun to dream. Setting aside the hype, here is how his current skillset stacks up:

    His hit and power tools have yet to meet the lofty expectations placed on him. His current offensive profile resembles 2024 Christopher Morel or Jack Suwinski—solid pop but streaky contact. Despite his early struggles in April, Domínguez has a high prospect pedigree and is a switch hitter that makes him a valuable long-term dynasty asset. If the hit tool develops, he could offer Springer-like production with steady counting stats in roto leagues.

    Drake Baldwin

    Drake Baldwin was the Braves top prospect headed into the 2025 season. With Sean Murphy sidelined to begin 2025, Baldwin seized the opportunity to start on Opening Day. Through his first 25 games, Baldwin has slashed .329/.382/.557 and is supported by strong Statcast metrics such as bat speed, hard-hit rate, squared-up %, whiff %, and more. The tool grades love what Baldwin has done in 2025 with the below grades/comps:

    Drake Baldwin Rookie Review

    I’m not saying Baldwin is Jackson Merrill, but the signs are pointing towards Baldwin having the bat to be a top catcher in the league for the rest of the 2020s. The Braves signed Sean Murphy through 2028 and a club option for 2029, meaning Murphy may not hit free agency again until 2030. Should the Braves fall out of contention, it is worth throwing Murphy’s name out in trade talks to see what the return looks like and give Baldwin the chance to play every day. Baldwin is a must-own in dynasty leagues and 2-catcher leagues and would keep an eye on what the Braves do throughout the season as once he is an everyday player there may be no looking back.

    Jake Mangum

    70 Hit – 35 Power – 50 Discipline – 75 Speed

    Mangum ranks 4th in fWAR among rookie hitters, despite playing nearly half as many games as the other WAR leaders. Unlike most rookies, Mangum is already 29 years old and likely does not have a ton of room for physical growth. FanGraphs grades Mangum’s tools as follows: Hit – 50/60, Raw Power – 40/40, Speed – 55/55. With the small 2025 sample, Mangum’s Hit and Speed tools are grading favorably:

    Jake Mangum Rookie Review

    His current 9.6% strikeout rate is well below his 17% mark from AAA over the past two years, suggesting likely regression in his Hit tool. With every day at bats over a full season, I could see Mangum as a .270 to 290 hitter with 25+ steal upside with single digit home runs. With some expected regression, I compare his tools similarly to Sal Frelick. Like Frelick, Mangum’s value is driven by is his contact ability and speed rather than power, making him a stronger asset in Roto leagues with batting average and stolen bases categories than points formats. Mangum is working his way back from a groin injury, and upon his return, he’ll face competition for playing time among Rays outfielders like Josh Lowe, Chandler Simpson, Christopher Morel, and Kameron Misner.

    Luisangel Acuña

    Luisangel Acuña currently ranks 7th among rookie fWAR leaders. As the younger brother of superstar Ronald Acuña, Luisangel does not possess the same elite power-speed combination. In fact, this year Luisangel has yet to produce any homeruns or barrels after hitting 3 homeruns with a 9%-barrel rate in a brief 2024 MLB callup. Speed is his standout tool, and so far, it’s the only one grading as elite, while the rest of his skillset remains closer to league average. While he isn’t completely devoid of power, his bat profiles more for single-digit home runs, with 30+ stolen bases being the real fantasy appeal. A good comp when trying to place his long-term outlook would be Andres Giménez. Like Giménez, Acuña offers strong contact skills and high-end speed but lacks the power upside needed for premium fantasy output in all formats.

    LuisAngel Acuna Rookie Review

    The challenge with speed-first prospects is that if Acuña’s bat struggles, he could lose playing time—or worse, face a demotion. If he continues to develop and is able to tap into tap into more power in future seasons, I could see Acuna producing 15/30 (HR/SBs) during a peak year.

    Trey Sweeney

    Sweeney, 25, is playing SS every day for the AL Central leading Tigers. Thanks to his consistent playing time, Sweeney currently leads all rookie hitters in fWAR (0.8). Sweeney lacks standout tools, but he has around average tools across the board. The 2025 tool grades on Sweeney are below:

    Trey Sweeney Rookie Review

    When comparing his tools to 2024 data, he matched well with another left-handed hitting middle infielder, Gavin Lux. Like Lux, Sweeney has a balanced profile and while not being a superstar, can help contribute in deeper leagues or DCs where starters/compilers are useful.

    Shane Smith

    At 25, Smith has been one of the few bright spots for the White Sox this season, currently leading all rookie pitchers in fWAR. Smith features a five-pitch mix—four-seam fastball, changeup, slider, curveball, and sinker—that allows him to keep hitters off balance. A similar comp looking at other 2025 pitcher tools is Casey Mize. Like Mize, Smith relies on above average control and a deep arsenal rather than overpowering stuff.

    Shane Smith Rookie Review

    Smith looks like a legitimate piece of the White Sox’s future rotation and long-term could be a solid #3 behind top prospects Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith. I recommend using Smith in 2025 in good matchups and be mindful wins will be limited and that he is better served in QS leagues. As the White Sox rebuild, Smith should benefit from better lineups/defense in the future.

    AJ Smith-Shawver

    Despite debuting in 2023 at just 20 years old, Smith-Shawver retains rookie eligibility in 2025 and still has time to refine his skills at 22. Smith-Shawver currently ranks 6th among rookie pitchers in fWAR and appears poised to be a long-term fixture in the Braves rotation. His arsenal includes a four-seam fastball, splitter, curveball, and slider, with the splitter and curveball boasting whiff rates above 40% in 2025.

    AJ Smith-Shawver Rookie Review

    Like Kevin Gausman, Smith-Shawver leans on his splitter to generate whiffs, but his command remains a work in progress. If he sharpens his control, he could elevate from a projected mid-rotation arm to a reliable fantasy SP2. Monitor Smith-Shawver’s walk rate, if he brings his BB% down, his upside rises.

    Will Warren

    Entering 2025 as the Yankees’ fifth-ranked prospect, Warren has secured a rotation spot following injuries to Gerrit Cole, Luis Gil, JT Brubaker, and Marcus Stroman. He has earned his stay and currently ranks 5th among rookie pitchers in fWAR with a 4.75 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP.  Comparing Warren’s 2025 tool grades to 2024 data, he closely aligns with Tylor Megill.

    Will Warren Rookie Review

    His arsenal includes a four-seam fastball, sweeper, sinker, and changeup, with the sinker and sweeper being his primary weapons against righties, while he relies on the four-seam and changeup versus lefties. Baseball Savant is also tracking a new Curveball which he is throwing around 5% of the time. Warren’s curveball has generated a 54.5% whiff rate this season, but it is unclear whether this represents a refined offering or inconsistencies in his sweeper movement. If he fully develops it—or adds a true vertical breaking pitch—he could elevate his effectiveness beyond his current mid-rotation profile.

    Warren should be part of the Yankees rotation for the rest of the season and future seasons as a mid/late rotation arm. If he can develop a curveball/deathball and (or) improve on his current control (10% BB rate), Warren could unlock a new tier and push him up another level.

    Jack Leiter

    Entering 2025 as the Rangers’ No. 3 prospect per MLB Pipeline, Leiter secured a rotation spot out of spring training. This season, Leiter has posted a respectable 4.34 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, though his underlying metrics—19.0% strikeout rate and 11.6% walk rate—suggest room for improvement. The good news is, Leiter seems to be adjusting his pitch mix in 2025, which I called out as a much-needed change in the Surprise Rangers Spring Training article. Leiter has supplemented some of his 4-seam usage with a new sinker that he is using 19% of the time and increased his changeup usage to 13.9%. These adjustments have contributed to improvements in his induced contact and arsenal grades.

    Jack Leiter Rookie Review

    The biggest problem for Leiter is his control and ability to miss bats. His 2025 changes have at least helped to show he can be a serviceable #4 or #5 starter and eased the immediate concerns that he needs to shift to the bullpen. If Leiter refines his control or improves his contact prevention, he could unlock more upside akin to Frankie Montas/Aaron Civale. All in all, I do not see the ace upside with Leiter that came with the 2nd overall pick. Improving either his control or contact prevention would push Leiter into the mid-rotation tier rather than a pure backend starter. Watch his K% and BB% trends closely.

    Chad Patrick

    A relatively unknown prospect for the Brewers, Patrick’s best minor league season came in 2024 when he posted a 2.90 ERA over 136 AAA innings at age 25. This season, Patrick has seized his opportunity in the rotation and isn’t letting go. Through his first 8 GS, Patrick has a crisp 3.19 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. Patrick is finding success with his three-fastball mix (cutter, 4-seam, sinker) while throwing his changeup (6%) and slider (5%) minimally. With this profile, Patrick does not generate a ton of swing and miss but is more focused on inducing weak contact. Patrick’s profile closely mirrors 2024 Javier Assad and Michael Lorenzen—pitchers who rely on weak contact over strikeouts.

    Chad Patrick Rookie Review

    Patrick’s low strikeout rate means his success will depend heavily on BABIP and defensive support. If his luck turns, expect some volatility in ERA and WHIP. Keep in mind Javier Assad and Michael Lorenzon have had runs of success in the same division. Patrick fits best as a matchup-dependent streamer rather than a set-and-forget fantasy starter.

    Let us know on X @2BScoopBaseball if you have any feedback, questions, or would like to see any other players analyzed.

  • Dynasty Buy-Low Targets: April Edition

    Last post we detailed some breakout dynasty hitters in April. Now we will dive into some buy-low dynasty hitters who should shake off their cold Aprils soon. These April buy-low hitters all have WRC+ under 100 and are showing signs that a slow April is nothing more.

    Mark Vientos – 96 wRC+

    I rushed to get this post out early to make sure Vientos would still qualify with a sub 100 wRC+. If you aren’t already familiar with his game, Mark Vientos emerged as a breakout slugger in 2024 launching 27 home runs over 454 plate appearances. This power surge was backed by a 46.6% hard-hit rate and 14.1% barrel-rate. However, there seems to be a difference in approach so far in 2025. Vientos’ average bat speed has dipped to 70.0 mph, down from 73.7 mph in 2023 and 71.8 mph in 2024. While this drop may raise concerns, it coincides with clear improvements in his contact rate (68.0% → 72.2%) and strikeout rate (29.7% → 20.2%) year over year. This suggests he may be refining his swing for more consistent contact rather than all-out power. A deeper look at his batted ball profile supports this adjustment:

    Mark Vientos 2024 vs 2025 batted ball

    His oppo% has increased to 30.7% and his pull% has dropped to 34.7%, indicating a shift toward a more balanced approach. Pitchers are attacking Vientos differently as well, increasing their use of sweepers to 15.8%(up from 9.2% in 2024)—a pitch he struggled against last season. His swing adjustments may be an attempt to handle sweepers and sliders more effectively, sacrificing some raw power for improved bat control.

    Vientos is locked in as the Mets’ everyday third baseman, hitting behind Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, and Pete Alonso. With a secure role locking in playing time, bet on Vientos rediscovering his power stroke as he balances the pull/oppo approach.

    Nolan Jones – 78 wRC+

    Nolan Jones may be available on waivers or free agency in your league, making him a cheap buy-low candidate. After a 20-20 season in 2023 over just 424 plate appearances, Jones entered 2024 with breakout buzz. However, injuries and inconsistent performance limited him to only 79 games with the Rockies.

    Now back with the Guardians, Jones is off to a sluggish start in 2025, posting a .276 wOBA and .593 OPS so far in April. Despite the slow production, his underlying metrics hint at the potential for a strong rebound:

    • Average EV: 95.2 mph
    • Hard-Hit Rate: 59.1%.
    • BB%: 14.1%.

    Jones’ performance is similar Pavin Smith, the Diamondbacks’ early breakout hitter with a 202 WRC+ in April. Both players are in platoon roles against right-handed pitching, but Jones is hitting the ball harder and has improved his contact rate to 78.8% which would be slightly above league average. His improved contact, discipline, and power suggest better days are ahead if he continues regular playing time.

    Nolan Jones vs Pavin Smith

    If Jones maintains this hard-hit rate for a full season, he’ll join an elite tier of hitters like Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Yordan Alvarez. With his past hype as a 20-20 player, improved hard-hit rates, and his position at the top of the Guardians lineup, now is the perfect time to take a low-risk flier on Jones.

    Salvador Perez – 77 wRC+

    I sold Perez in my home league a few years back anticipating a decline as he aged into his 30s. I’ve regretted it ever since. Year after year, Perez has defied age and has proved he is one of the most reliable bats at the position. Since 2015, Perez has hit 20+ home runs in every full season, with 11 HR during the shortened 2020 season. Looking at his underlying metrics in 2025, Perez appears to have all the skills necessary to maintain success:

    Salvadoor Perez 2023, 2024, and 2025 comparison

    So far this season Perez has improved his contact, hard-hit, and barrel-rates, indicating that Perez slow start may just be a blip. Despite slashing just .224/.272.364, Perez remains one of the safest bets at the catcher position. If you are weak at catcher and need an upgrade, now is the perfect time to send out an offer.

    Triston Casas – 60 wRC+

    Casas is off to a slow start in 2025, slashing .172/.273/.310 on the season. A closer look at his underlying metrics suggests that his struggles may be more about bad luck than declining skill.

    Triston Casas 2025 stats vs career stats

    Casas’ hard-hit rate and barrel rate are just down compared to his career norms, yet his .197 BABIP is well below his career average of .291, indicating poor fortune on balls in play. Another sign of potential positive regression, is his wOBA (.260) is -0.52 points behind his xwOBA (.312), hinting that he is making solid contact but not getting the results.

    While Casas may not have elite upside at first base, his spot in the middle of the Red Sox lineup gives him plenty of opportunity to manufacture runs. At just 25 years old, there’s still room for growth. His power/discipline make him a valuable long-term asset in dynasty formats with even more of a boost in points leagues.

    Jake Burger – 48 wRC+

    Jake Burger is a DoubleScoop guy, no question about it. While his .180/.211/.326 start in 2025 is discouraging, it is important not to lose faith in his long-term outlook. Power hitters with high K% are often streaky by nature, and Burger fits that mold perfectly. Historically, Burger has been a second-half performer, showing improvements in K%, AVG, OBP, and SLG as the season progresses.

    Jake Burger 1st half vs 2nd half career stats

    Encouragingly, his underlying metrics such as barrel, hard-hit, and K rates, are consistent with his career norms. Playing in the Rangers’ strong lineup, Burger has ample opportunity to rack up RBI and HR as the season moves forward. If Burger is available on waivers/FA in your league, now is the time to grab him. Remember what Eugenio Suarez has taught us in past seasons… Once the summer heat arrives, let Burger cook.

    Honorable Mentions

    • Dylan Crews (78 wRC+): Off to a .229/.260/.385 slash line in April, Crews has interesting tools, showing off 97th percentile sprint speed and 73rd percentile bat speed in 2025. He has also managed a 15.7% barrel-rate through April. I believe Crews has enough contact ability to take advantage of his speed/power and can see him as a consistent 20/30 HR/SB threat in the years to come.
    • Vinnie Pasquantino (51 wRC+): April has been a challenge for Pasquantino, marked by an increase in K% and a dip in contact rate. Despite this, his bat speed remains strong, and he is pulling the ball in the air more frequently than ever. At just 27 years old, Vinnie P has plenty of bounce-back potential for the rest of 2025. He remains a top-12 dynasty 1B.
    • Colt Keith (70 wRC+): Keith is a young hitter with strong zone control and has shown 20+ HR upside in the MiLB. His 2025 BB% (18.1%) ranks among league leaders and is supported by a 90th percentile chase rate (19.3%). Keith, an opposite filed hitter at heart, is quoted in an Athletic article stating his approach: “Through the minor leagues, I’ve always tried to hit line drives to left-center, and that allowed me to pull the ball the right way.” You can see this approach reflected in his hit MLB hit charts. At just 23 years old, Keith has a good foundation of zone/contact skills and will need to adjust his timing for more pull power to unlock 20+ HR power potential.

    Reach out on X @2BScoopBaseball for any questions or other player deep dives you want to see

  • Breakout Dynasty Targets- April

         A lot of fun fantasy action already this season with early April breakouts and top prospect call-ups like Chandler Simpson and Nick Kurtz. This article will focus on highlighting the early April breakout hitters to target in dynasty leagues.

         The list of breakout hitters includes current MLB hitters (50+ PA in 2025) who have taken a step forward in their career so far in 2025 and are good bets to continue their April success into the future.

    5 Breakout Dynasty Targets

    Ben Rice

    Yankees fans could start forgetting about Juan Soto soon if Rice continues his breakout performance in 2025. After a modest debut in 2024 (73 WRC+), Rice has elevated his game, posting elite metrics like a 25.0% barrel rate and 64.6% hard hit rate. His bat speed has jumped from 71.4 to 74.6, signaling his power gains are legit. A late bloomer who spent time catching in the minors, Rice is now focused solely on hitting—and it’s paying off. It is an extremely small sample size, but Rice did his best Ohtani impression in April.

    Ben Rice April 2025 stats

    I do not expect Rice to be Ohtani for the rest of his career, but If Rice maintains this pace, he could emerge as a top-5 dynasty first baseman by season’s end and is a must-buy in dynasty leagues.

    Tyler Soderstrom

    One of my favorite breakout picks for 2025, Soderstrom shared breakout signs in 2024 with a 48.9% hard hit rate and a 14.6% barrel rate. In 2025 he is making the most out of his opportunity and currently is tired for the league lead with 9 HRs. His K% has improved from 24.9% to 22.3% rates and his batted ball metrics in 2025 have all taken another step forward. Below is a comparison of Soderstrom’s start to the season with Gunnar Henderson’s 2024 season, showing the potential he has if the improvements stick.

    Tyler Soderstrom April 2025 Stats

    The Athletics have a developing hitting core in Butler, Rooker, Soderstrom, and Langeliers mixed with other promising rookies Wilson and Kurtz. With the improved stadium situation and developing lineup around Soderstrom, buy in now before he is viewed as a top 10 dynasty first baseman across the industry.

    Jonathan Aranda

    A longtime minor leaguer with a rare four minor league options, Aranda has consistently produced at the highest levels of the minors, posting an OPS above .950 in AA and AAA since 2021. Despite a modest .737 OPS in his third MLB stint in 2024, he is now locked in as the Rays’ starting first baseman and isn’t letting go. Aranda has lowered his K rate (16.4%) while increasing nearly all his batted ball metrics year over year. His 113-mph max exit velocity in the minors and 46.4% hard hit rate last year in the MLB show that the power has been present.

    Jonatham Aranda April 2025 Stats

    While the sample size is small (62 AB), his early-season performance draws comparisons to elite hitters like Juan Soto. If he maintains this trajectory, Aranda could solidify himself as a top-16 dynasty first baseman with upside for top-12.

    Wilyer Abreu

    Abreu had a solid rookie season in 2024 putting up 114 WRC+ in 447 PA. He now finds himself in the heart of the order vs RHP and is off to a hot start in 2025. In his first 95 PA in 2025, his batted ball metrics are similar to his career marks, but the most interesting changes are is in his K%, Z-Contact, and O-Swing (below). It is always a good sign to see a hitters K% improve, but even better when it is paired with the hitter lowering his out of the zone swing rate (O-Swing%) and improving his in-zone swing (Z-Swing) and contact rates (Z-Contact).

    Wilyer Abreu 2024 vs 2025

    This means Abreu is swinging at less balls and being more aggressive on strikes which is a recipe for success. He is also making more contact on pitches in the zone, so giving himself a chance at more hard balls in play by being more aggressive and making more contact. Abreu has made some slight mechanical changes that could be helping his breakout. In 2024, he had more of vertical leg kick and would need to drop his head and body into a lower position as he started his swing. In 2025, Abreu has shifted to a smaller leg kick where he appears to be hinging more into his hips/back side and now has less head movement from the peak of his leg kick to start of swing. Limiting head movement and simplifying the leg kick are great ways to see the ball better and make better swing decisions.

    Wilyer Abreu 2024
    Wilyer Abreu 2025

    Abreu, in his age 26 season, has always had strong batted ball metrics and should move up dynasty rankings further if he continues his contact/swing decision improvements. He will be heading into his prime years the next few seasons and grabbing him now could be a strong investment.

    Kyle Manzardo

    A highly regarded prospect for the Guardians, Manzardo is quietly breaking out in 2025. Despite a .217 batting average, he’s running a .900+ OPS thanks to elite walk rates (14.1%) and a hard-hit rate that has jumped to 45.1%. His barrel rate has more than doubled from 9.5% in 2024 to 19.6%, showcasing some of the power he displayed during his MiLB time (14.6% est. barrel rate in AAA in 2024 on our MiLB barrel rate tool). Our est. MiLB barrel rate tool can be found here: Fantasy Baseball Tools

    Kyle Manzardo 2024 vs 2025

    With an improved K rate and a history of strong hard-hit rates in the minors, Manzardo’s batting average should continue to rise to around league average as the season progresses. His combination of plus power/discipline and a developing hit tool makes him a breakout candidate for dynasty leagues looking to stock up on youth.

    Honorable Mentions

    • Kyren Paris: Interesting power/speed combo but still have a lot of questions about his hit tool with a 58% contact rate and 30+ K% rate. Has the tools to put up 20/20 seasons going forward, but will likely be a streaky hitter who runs a low batting average.
    • Jacob Wilson: Elite hit tool comparable to Arraez and Kwan. Think their could be a little more power develop in Wilson’s bat vs the others but would still cap Wilson at 15 homeruns at his peak.
    • Alek Thomas: Thomas has average to plus hit, power, and speed tools but has never put it all the skills into results. Thomas has bounced around the big leagues since 2022 and is now just 25 years old in 2025 is getting an everyday role on one of the best offenses as Jake McCarthy has been sent down. I view Thomas as a potential 15/25 hitter who should run average to above average BA.

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