Tag: Alek Thomas

  • Breakout Dynasty Targets- April


         A lot of fun fantasy action already this season with early April breakouts and top prospect call-ups like Chandler Simpson and Nick Kurtz. This article will focus on highlighting the early April breakout hitters to target in dynasty leagues.

         The list of breakout hitters includes current MLB hitters (50+ PA in 2025) who have taken a step forward in their career so far in 2025 and are good bets to continue their April success into the future.

    5 Breakout Dynasty Targets

    Ben Rice

    Yankees fans could start forgetting about Juan Soto soon if Rice continues his breakout performance in 2025. After a modest debut in 2024 (73 WRC+), Rice has elevated his game, posting elite metrics like a 25.0% barrel rate and 64.6% hard hit rate. His bat speed has jumped from 71.4 to 74.6, signaling his power gains are legit. A late bloomer who spent time catching in the minors, Rice is now focused solely on hitting—and it’s paying off. It is an extremely small sample size, but Rice did his best Ohtani impression in April.

    Ben Rice April 2025 stats

    I do not expect Rice to be Ohtani for the rest of his career, but If Rice maintains this pace, he could emerge as a top-5 dynasty first baseman by season’s end and is a must-buy in dynasty leagues.

    Tyler Soderstrom

    One of my favorite breakout picks for 2025, Soderstrom shared breakout signs in 2024 with a 48.9% hard hit rate and a 14.6% barrel rate. In 2025 he is making the most out of his opportunity and currently is tired for the league lead with 9 HRs. His K% has improved from 24.9% to 22.3% rates and his batted ball metrics in 2025 have all taken another step forward. Below is a comparison of Soderstrom’s start to the season with Gunnar Henderson’s 2024 season, showing the potential he has if the improvements stick.

    Tyler Soderstrom April 2025 Stats

    The Athletics have a developing hitting core in Butler, Rooker, Soderstrom, and Langeliers mixed with other promising rookies Wilson and Kurtz. With the improved stadium situation and developing lineup around Soderstrom, buy in now before he is viewed as a top 10 dynasty first baseman across the industry.

    Jonathan Aranda

    A longtime minor leaguer with a rare four minor league options, Aranda has consistently produced at the highest levels of the minors, posting an OPS above .950 in AA and AAA since 2021. Despite a modest .737 OPS in his third MLB stint in 2024, he is now locked in as the Rays’ starting first baseman and isn’t letting go. Aranda has lowered his K rate (16.4%) while increasing nearly all his batted ball metrics year over year. His 113-mph max exit velocity in the minors and 46.4% hard hit rate last year in the MLB show that the power has been present.

    Jonatham Aranda April 2025 Stats

    While the sample size is small (62 AB), his early-season performance draws comparisons to elite hitters like Juan Soto. If he maintains this trajectory, Aranda could solidify himself as a top-16 dynasty first baseman with upside for top-12.

    Wilyer Abreu

    Abreu had a solid rookie season in 2024 putting up 114 WRC+ in 447 PA. He now finds himself in the heart of the order vs RHP and is off to a hot start in 2025. In his first 95 PA in 2025, his batted ball metrics are similar to his career marks, but the most interesting changes are is in his K%, Z-Contact, and O-Swing (below). It is always a good sign to see a hitters K% improve, but even better when it is paired with the hitter lowering his out of the zone swing rate (O-Swing%) and improving his in-zone swing (Z-Swing) and contact rates (Z-Contact).

    Wilyer Abreu 2024 vs 2025

    This means Abreu is swinging at less balls and being more aggressive on strikes which is a recipe for success. He is also making more contact on pitches in the zone, so giving himself a chance at more hard balls in play by being more aggressive and making more contact. Abreu has made some slight mechanical changes that could be helping his breakout. In 2024, he had more of vertical leg kick and would need to drop his head and body into a lower position as he started his swing. In 2025, Abreu has shifted to a smaller leg kick where he appears to be hinging more into his hips/back side and now has less head movement from the peak of his leg kick to start of swing. Limiting head movement and simplifying the leg kick are great ways to see the ball better and make better swing decisions.

    Abreu, in his age 26 season, has always had strong batted ball metrics and should move up dynasty rankings further if he continues his contact/swing decision improvements. He will be heading into his prime years the next few seasons and grabbing him now could be a strong investment.

    Kyle Manzardo

    A highly regarded prospect for the Guardians, Manzardo is quietly breaking out in 2025. Despite a .217 batting average, he’s running a .900+ OPS thanks to elite walk rates (14.1%) and a hard-hit rate that has jumped to 45.1%. His barrel rate has more than doubled from 9.5% in 2024 to 19.6%, showcasing some of the power he displayed during his MiLB time (14.6% est. barrel rate in AAA in 2024 on our MiLB barrel rate tool). Our est. MiLB barrel rate tool can be found here: Fantasy Baseball Tools

    Kyle Manzardo 2024 vs 2025

    With an improved K rate and a history of strong hard-hit rates in the minors, Manzardo’s batting average should continue to rise to around league average as the season progresses. His combination of plus power/discipline and a developing hit tool makes him a breakout candidate for dynasty leagues looking to stock up on youth.

    Honorable Mentions

    • Kyren Paris: Interesting power/speed combo but still have a lot of questions about his hit tool with a 58% contact rate and 30+ K% rate. Has the tools to put up 20/20 seasons going forward, but will likely be a streaky hitter who runs a low batting average.
    • Jacob Wilson: Elite hit tool comparable to Arraez and Kwan. Think their could be a little more power develop in Wilson’s bat vs the others but would still cap Wilson at 15 homeruns at his peak.
    • Alek Thomas: Thomas has average to plus hit, power, and speed tools but has never put it all the skills into results. Thomas has bounced around the big leagues since 2022 and is now just 25 years old in 2025 is getting an everyday role on one of the best offenses as Jake McCarthy has been sent down. I view Thomas as a potential 15/25 hitter who should run average to above average BA.

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