DoubleScoop Baseball

Author: Alex Homick

  • Rookie Analysis & Tool Grades: June 2025

    Rookie Analysis & Tool Grades: June 2025

    It has been about a month since the May rookie review so time for a June follow up. On this series I dive into both rookie hitter and pitcher performances’ so far this season and look to provide some outlook into their fantasy usefulness, provide tool grades, as well as find relevant comps for their tool profile.

    One thing I will mention throughout the rookie review series are my DoubleScoop tool grades. Hit, Power, Discipline, and Speed for hitters, and Induced Contact, Contact Prevention, Control, and Arsenal for pitchers. These grades follow the traditional 20–80 scouting scale, where 50 represents MLB average, 20 being the lowest and 80 being the highest. I recommend checking out Fangraphs article – Scouting Explained: The 20-80 Scouting Scale | FanGraphs Baseball – or search online if wanting to understand the 20-80 scale better.

    DoubleScoop Hitter Tools

    • Hit – Grades player on ability to put the ball in play and quality of the contact
    • Power – Grades player on their bat speed, Max EVs, and barrels
    • Discipline – Grades player’s ability to control the strike zone and work walks
    • Speed – Grades player’s sprint speed, aggressiveness, and their efficiency on the basepaths

    DoubleScoop Pitchers Tools

    • Induced Contact – Grades pitcher on ability to limit favorable hitter outcomes
    • Contact Prevention – Grades pitcher’s ability to avoid hitters making contact
    • Control – Grades pitcher’s ability to control their pitches in the zone
    • Arsenal – Grades pitcher on the quality and randomness of their pitches

    Chase Meidroth

    Initially viewed as more of a complementary piece to top catching prospect Kyle Teel and 2024 12th overall pick Braden Montgomery, Meidroth has established himself as the everyday shortstop for the White Sox in 2025. Since May, he’s been locked into either the leadoff or No. 2 spot in the lineup, earning consistent at-bats. That opportunity has paid off, as he’s slashed .298/.383/.382 with a 123 wRC+, 7 SB, and 17 R over 149 plate appearances (33 games started).

    Meidroth calling card is his hit tool, currently graded at a 70 by our DoubleScoop tool grades, along with above average discipline (55) and speed (55). While he should be able to run consistent high batting averages due to his hit tool, he also is not afraid to take his walks. Meidroth at the time of this article, is in the 97th percentile in chase rate, meaning he is one of the best in the league at not chasing pitches out of the strike zone.

    His profile draws similarities to players like Geraldo Perdomo and Santiago Espinal—high-contact hitters with limited power, average-to-above-average speed, and solid plate discipline.

    This profile can be fantasy relevant as we are seeing Perdomo have a 2025 fantasy breakout and already almost breaking his career high in HR and RBIs. In roto leagues, look at Meidroth as a 3-category contributor who will provide a nice batting average floor, solid run production, and around 15-20 SBs over the course of a full season.

    Carlos Narváez

    Carlos Narváez has been a nice surprise for the Red Sox this season, posting a .280/.357/.457 slash line, good for a 126 wRC+ while also providing strong defensive value behind the plate. Though never regarded as a top prospect and failing to make most organizational top prospect lists during his time in the NYY organization, he is certainly leaving his mark around the league. As of the time of writing, he currently ranks 2nd behind Jacob Wilson in fWAR among all rookie hitters according to Fangraphs.

    Narváez grades out with average to above average tools across the board except for his speed, which is often not expected for catchers. He comps similarly to sluggers like Colt Keith (1B/2B/3B) and Brent Rooker (DH/OF) who also are graded out with average Hit tools with plus power and discipline. With Narváez behind the dish, I do not expect him to reach the lofty 30+ HR totals that Rooker has put up during the past few seasons. With 450+ PA, I see Narvaez having the skill set to hit 15-20 HRs which is valuable for a catcher in fantasy leagues.

    Narváez has earned the larger share of playing time over Connor Wong due to his strong defense and hitting this season, but something to note as the Red Sox will still want to find ABs for Wong. Narváez should be started in all two catcher leagues at this point in 2025 and view him as a top-15 catcher in redraft leagues.

    Cam Smith

    Cam Smith made headlines to start the 2025 season making the opening day roster for the Astros with just 32 MiLB games under his belt after being drafted 14th overall by the Cubs in 2024. Not only being challenged by MLB pitchers with limited MiLB experience, Smith is also dealing with learning a new position, having shifted from 3B to RF to find a way to get him into the lineup.

    Results so far have been what you could expect with all that has been thrown at Cam Smith, posting a .246/.325/.363 slash with a 99 wRC+. Players with similar tool grades over the past two seasons are Jarred Kelenic (2024) and Nolan Jones (2025). Kelenic, a highly regarded OF prospect from SEA, also debuted at a young age at just 21 years old but so far has failed to develop into an everyday player.

    Some of these current player comps may frustrate Astros fans, but at just 22 years old, there is still plenty of room for growth for Smith. One glimmer of hope is that Smith has the highest bat speed of the 3 players above averaging 75.2 mph on his swing, meaning there is more raw power that could be unlocked. While I am not a GM or in player development, it makes me wonder if some extra AAA time to work on developing a stronger plate approach without the pressure of playing on the MLB team could benefit Smith in the long-term and avoid following the path of Kelenic.

    Caleb Durbin

    Durbin, an undersized Yankees prospect, was traded to the Brewers system in December 2024 as part of the Yankees aquiring Devin Williams. While never a fixture on top prospect lists, he was a standout in the 2024 Arizona Fall League (AFL) slashing .312/.427/.548 in 24 games.

    Durbin has not transitioned his AFL/minor league production into MLB production yet, slashing just .208/.302/.315 through his first 47 games. Looking under the hood, there are some things to like out of Durbin. Durbin possesses great contact skills, finding himself near the top of the leaderboards in K%, Whiff%, and contact % which is a big reason why his hit tool grades out at an elite level even though he is only batting .208 at the moment.

    Durbin’s not likely to be a double-digit home run threat, maybe peaking at 10 in a season, but that doesn’t mean he can’t carve out fantasy value. His skill set is similar to that of Nico Hoerner, featuring a high-contact bat paired with plus speed.

    I see Durbin being able to turn his season around and a walk-off HR against my Padres for his first big league HR should help his confidence. With an extremely low BABIP of .213, it is not hard to see some positive regression come along and start to see his batting average creep up closer to the .250 – .260 range this season. Getting on base will also allow Durbin to steal more bases, with only 5 on the season so far after posting 30+ steals each full season in the minors.

    While Durbin’s profile is better fit for 2B, the Brewers have Turang locked in at 2B for the near future. I like Durbin in deeper dynasty leagues and will be looking at Durbin in 2026 roto leagues as a late round sleeper.

    Jackson Jobe

    Jobe entered the 2025 season ranked as the Tigers’ top prospect and the No. 5 overall prospect in baseball, according to MLB Pipeline. That only added to the already lofty expectations for the 22-year-old right-hander, who was drafted third overall out of high school in 2021. At the time, scouts and analysts raved about his high-spin slider and overall pitchability.

    Now, just 22 years, Jobe finds himself on the IL with a flexor strain which no clear timetable on his return. Having had multiple personal flexor strains and a UCL strain myself, this is not great news for Jobe who was hoping to be a ROY candidate in 2025.

    Over 10 starts and 49 innings in 2025, his pitch metrics have drawn comps to both Sandy Alcantara, who is returning from Tommy John surgery, and Frankie Montas. Most years, being compared to Alcantara would be a massive compliment, but in 2025, Alcantara has struggled to regain his elite command. Even the lower end of the comp in Montas represents a serviceable MLB starter, though it would be a notable drop-off for someone tabbed as the game’s top pitching prospect just months ago.

    We will have to wait patiently to hear more news on Jobe’s injury and timeline to return to pitching. The Arsenal grade being listed as a 55 is a strong indicator that there is upside for more but will need to either find the right mix across his other pitches outside of his 4-seam and slider or tighten his command to take the next step forward. I’d consider dropping Jobe in redraft leagues unless you have IL stashes until you hear any next update on his injury.

    Ben Casparius

    Casparius has thrived in a relief role with the Dodgers in his rookie year in 2025, posting a 2.93 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 27.3% K-rate, and 4.3% BB-rate in 40 innings (21 appearances). Primarily used a starter in the minors, he now operares as a multi-iinning weapon out of the Dodgers bullpen. He served as an opener on April 23rd (2.2 IP) and got a spot start against the Padres today, going four innings as a wrote this article.

    While Casparius grades out well as a reliever, it looks like the Dodgers are preparing to stretch him out as a starter to help cover a rotation plagued by injuries. To try and project Casparius grades as an SP, I took 2024 grades for the innings that Kris Bubic, Clay Holmes, and Grant Holmes pitched out of the bullpen and compared it to their 2025 grades as starting pitchers. From there I took the average % in change and applied that to his 2025 grades. Below are Casparius 2025 grades as a RP as well as his projected SP tool grades with comps to other similar starters.

    The estimated SP tool projections for Ben Casparius are strong across the board and have intriguing comps, including Ryan Weathers and Jacob Degrom. Casparius has an SP arsenal with his 4-Seam, Sweeper, Cutter, and Curveball mix which he mixes up well against LHP and RHP.

    If stretched out to go five innings consistently, Casparius could become a major fantasy asset as we approach the season’s midpoint. I’m comfortable viewing him as a top-30 SP talent for the rest of 2025. Even with 107.2 innings in 2023 marking his career high, I’m betting that at age 26, and with the Dodgers’ current rotation woes, they’ll let him ride as long as he stays healthy.

    Go snag Casparius off waivers or free agency if he’s still out there, he might just be one of the sneakiest SP values of the season!

    Hunter Dobbins

    Dobbins, ranked as the No. 13 Red Sox prospect ahead of the 2025 season by MLB Pipeline, has managed to hold onto a rotation spot due to a combination of injuries and struggles from other Red Sox arms (Giolito, Houck, Crawford, Fitts). So far, he’s been a serviceable starter, posting a 4.20 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 2025.

    Dobbins features a five-pitch mix made of a 4-seam, slider, curveball, sweeper, and splitter of which he throws all pitches at least 10% of the time. While only striking out hitters 17.9% of the time, he makes up for his lack of K’s by limiting free passes (4.8% BB-rate).

    Dobbins skill profile matches up similarly with Jameson Taillon, a veteran pitcher known for his ability to mix and locate his pitches rather than overpowering stuff. Even though Dobbins is striking hitters out at just a 17.9% rate, his 50-grade contact prevention indicate he may be able to tick up his K% closer to 20%. Notably, his curveball and slider generate strong whiff% at 40% and 30.3% respectively. That said, he will need to continue to refine his off-speed pitch mix as he only generates a 13.3% whiff rate on his 4-seam with hitters batting .313 off the pitch.

    Without a plus fastball,Dobbins does not project as a frontline starter. Dobbins more realistically profiles as a solid 4th starter or lower end 3rd starter during his peak.

    Logan Evans

    Ranked as the #10 Seattle prospect in 2025 by MLB Pipeline, Evans has found himself with opportunities to start this season due to injuries to George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, and Bryce Miller. Evans has a deep arsenal, including a cutter, sweeper, sinker, change-up, 4-seam, and curveball, each thrown over 10% of the time.

    Through seven starts this season, Evans has a 3.38 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 18.0% K-rate, and 7.2% BB-rate. While the ERA and WHIP are respectable, I expect regression from Evans given his below average contact prevention with only league average induced contact.

    Evan’s arsenal could play up with his three different fastballs and his strong command. With improvements to his induced contact, he could see a higher-end comp like Michael Wacha. I do not expect him to improve his contact prevention much as he does not have any pitches with a 30% whiff rate, with the top being his cutter with a 25% whiff rate.

    Evans currently profiles as a back of the rotation arm who should eat innings and be useful in good streaming matchups. His 3-fastballs are a good foundation for a starter and could see improvements in his induced contact if he continues to develop. For now, plan on using Evans as a streamer at home or vs poor offenses.

    Follow us on X @2BScoopBaseball and @DoubleScoopBaseball on IG and let us know any feedback or questions you have.

  • Rookie Analysis & Tool Grades: May 2025

    Rookie Analysis & Tool Grades: May 2025

    Starting a monthly article where I will dive into MLB rookies and how their 1st full season in the MLB is going. Not every rookie who debuted during the previous or current month will be covered but will cover select rookies at a time with a focus on those with significant enough playing time.

    One thing I will mention throughout the article are my personal tool grades. These are Hit, Power, Discipline, and Speed for hitters, and Induced Contact, Contact Prevention, Control, and Arsenal for pitchers. These grades follow the traditional 20–80 scouting scale, where 50 represents MLB average, 20 being the lowest and 80 being the highest. I recommend checking out Fangraphs article – Scouting Explained: The 20-80 Scouting Scale | FanGraphs Baseball – or search online if wanting to understand the 20-80 scale better.

    DoubleScoop Hitter Tools

    • Hit – Grades player on ability to put the ball in play and quality of the contact
    • Power – Grades player on their bat speed, Max EVs, and barrels
    • Discipline – Grades player’s ability to control the strike zone and work walks
    • Speed – Grades player’s sprint speed, aggressiveness, and their efficiency on the basepaths

    DoubleScoop Pitchers Tools

    • Induced Contact – Grades pitcher on ability to limit favorable hitter outcomes
    • Contact Prevention – Grades pitcher’s ability to avoid hitters making contact
    • Control – Grades pitcher’s ability to control their pitches in the zone
    • Arsenal – Grades pitcher on the quality and randomness of their pitches

    With that being covered, lets dive into the rookie tool grades and relevant comparisons.

    Jasson Dominguez

    Mega hyped switch-hitting prospect Jasson Dominguez was given the opening day nod to start 2025. Domínguez has been a staple of dynasty league discussions for years, as he was highly talked about all the way when he was just 16 years old. At just 22, Dominguez is at the age where he could still take a huge leap forward in his progression, making it fun to dream. Setting aside the hype, here is how his current skillset stacks up:

    His hit and power tools have yet to meet the lofty expectations placed on him. His current offensive profile resembles 2024 Christopher Morel or Jack Suwinski—solid pop but streaky contact. Despite his early struggles in April, Domínguez has a high prospect pedigree and is a switch hitter that makes him a valuable long-term dynasty asset. If the hit tool develops, he could offer Springer-like production with steady counting stats in roto leagues.

    Drake Baldwin

    Drake Baldwin was the Braves top prospect headed into the 2025 season. With Sean Murphy sidelined to begin 2025, Baldwin seized the opportunity to start on Opening Day. Through his first 25 games, Baldwin has slashed .329/.382/.557 and is supported by strong Statcast metrics such as bat speed, hard-hit rate, squared-up %, whiff %, and more. The tool grades love what Baldwin has done in 2025 with the below grades/comps:

    Drake Baldwin Rookie Review

    I’m not saying Baldwin is Jackson Merrill, but the signs are pointing towards Baldwin having the bat to be a top catcher in the league for the rest of the 2020s. The Braves signed Sean Murphy through 2028 and a club option for 2029, meaning Murphy may not hit free agency again until 2030. Should the Braves fall out of contention, it is worth throwing Murphy’s name out in trade talks to see what the return looks like and give Baldwin the chance to play every day. Baldwin is a must-own in dynasty leagues and 2-catcher leagues and would keep an eye on what the Braves do throughout the season as once he is an everyday player there may be no looking back.

    Jake Mangum

    70 Hit – 35 Power – 50 Discipline – 75 Speed

    Mangum ranks 4th in fWAR among rookie hitters, despite playing nearly half as many games as the other WAR leaders. Unlike most rookies, Mangum is already 29 years old and likely does not have a ton of room for physical growth. FanGraphs grades Mangum’s tools as follows: Hit – 50/60, Raw Power – 40/40, Speed – 55/55. With the small 2025 sample, Mangum’s Hit and Speed tools are grading favorably:

    Jake Mangum Rookie Review

    His current 9.6% strikeout rate is well below his 17% mark from AAA over the past two years, suggesting likely regression in his Hit tool. With every day at bats over a full season, I could see Mangum as a .270 to 290 hitter with 25+ steal upside with single digit home runs. With some expected regression, I compare his tools similarly to Sal Frelick. Like Frelick, Mangum’s value is driven by is his contact ability and speed rather than power, making him a stronger asset in Roto leagues with batting average and stolen bases categories than points formats. Mangum is working his way back from a groin injury, and upon his return, he’ll face competition for playing time among Rays outfielders like Josh Lowe, Chandler Simpson, Christopher Morel, and Kameron Misner.

    Luisangel Acuña

    Luisangel Acuña currently ranks 7th among rookie fWAR leaders. As the younger brother of superstar Ronald Acuña, Luisangel does not possess the same elite power-speed combination. In fact, this year Luisangel has yet to produce any homeruns or barrels after hitting 3 homeruns with a 9%-barrel rate in a brief 2024 MLB callup. Speed is his standout tool, and so far, it’s the only one grading as elite, while the rest of his skillset remains closer to league average. While he isn’t completely devoid of power, his bat profiles more for single-digit home runs, with 30+ stolen bases being the real fantasy appeal. A good comp when trying to place his long-term outlook would be Andres Giménez. Like Giménez, Acuña offers strong contact skills and high-end speed but lacks the power upside needed for premium fantasy output in all formats.

    LuisAngel Acuna Rookie Review

    The challenge with speed-first prospects is that if Acuña’s bat struggles, he could lose playing time—or worse, face a demotion. If he continues to develop and is able to tap into tap into more power in future seasons, I could see Acuna producing 15/30 (HR/SBs) during a peak year.

    Trey Sweeney

    Sweeney, 25, is playing SS every day for the AL Central leading Tigers. Thanks to his consistent playing time, Sweeney currently leads all rookie hitters in fWAR (0.8). Sweeney lacks standout tools, but he has around average tools across the board. The 2025 tool grades on Sweeney are below:

    Trey Sweeney Rookie Review

    When comparing his tools to 2024 data, he matched well with another left-handed hitting middle infielder, Gavin Lux. Like Lux, Sweeney has a balanced profile and while not being a superstar, can help contribute in deeper leagues or DCs where starters/compilers are useful.

    Shane Smith

    At 25, Smith has been one of the few bright spots for the White Sox this season, currently leading all rookie pitchers in fWAR. Smith features a five-pitch mix—four-seam fastball, changeup, slider, curveball, and sinker—that allows him to keep hitters off balance. A similar comp looking at other 2025 pitcher tools is Casey Mize. Like Mize, Smith relies on above average control and a deep arsenal rather than overpowering stuff.

    Shane Smith Rookie Review

    Smith looks like a legitimate piece of the White Sox’s future rotation and long-term could be a solid #3 behind top prospects Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith. I recommend using Smith in 2025 in good matchups and be mindful wins will be limited and that he is better served in QS leagues. As the White Sox rebuild, Smith should benefit from better lineups/defense in the future.

    AJ Smith-Shawver

    Despite debuting in 2023 at just 20 years old, Smith-Shawver retains rookie eligibility in 2025 and still has time to refine his skills at 22. Smith-Shawver currently ranks 6th among rookie pitchers in fWAR and appears poised to be a long-term fixture in the Braves rotation. His arsenal includes a four-seam fastball, splitter, curveball, and slider, with the splitter and curveball boasting whiff rates above 40% in 2025.

    AJ Smith-Shawver Rookie Review

    Like Kevin Gausman, Smith-Shawver leans on his splitter to generate whiffs, but his command remains a work in progress. If he sharpens his control, he could elevate from a projected mid-rotation arm to a reliable fantasy SP2. Monitor Smith-Shawver’s walk rate, if he brings his BB% down, his upside rises.

    Will Warren

    Entering 2025 as the Yankees’ fifth-ranked prospect, Warren has secured a rotation spot following injuries to Gerrit Cole, Luis Gil, JT Brubaker, and Marcus Stroman. He has earned his stay and currently ranks 5th among rookie pitchers in fWAR with a 4.75 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP.  Comparing Warren’s 2025 tool grades to 2024 data, he closely aligns with Tylor Megill.

    Will Warren Rookie Review

    His arsenal includes a four-seam fastball, sweeper, sinker, and changeup, with the sinker and sweeper being his primary weapons against righties, while he relies on the four-seam and changeup versus lefties. Baseball Savant is also tracking a new Curveball which he is throwing around 5% of the time. Warren’s curveball has generated a 54.5% whiff rate this season, but it is unclear whether this represents a refined offering or inconsistencies in his sweeper movement. If he fully develops it—or adds a true vertical breaking pitch—he could elevate his effectiveness beyond his current mid-rotation profile.

    Warren should be part of the Yankees rotation for the rest of the season and future seasons as a mid/late rotation arm. If he can develop a curveball/deathball and (or) improve on his current control (10% BB rate), Warren could unlock a new tier and push him up another level.

    Jack Leiter

    Entering 2025 as the Rangers’ No. 3 prospect per MLB Pipeline, Leiter secured a rotation spot out of spring training. This season, Leiter has posted a respectable 4.34 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, though his underlying metrics—19.0% strikeout rate and 11.6% walk rate—suggest room for improvement. The good news is, Leiter seems to be adjusting his pitch mix in 2025, which I called out as a much-needed change in the Surprise Rangers Spring Training article. Leiter has supplemented some of his 4-seam usage with a new sinker that he is using 19% of the time and increased his changeup usage to 13.9%. These adjustments have contributed to improvements in his induced contact and arsenal grades.

    Jack Leiter Rookie Review

    The biggest problem for Leiter is his control and ability to miss bats. His 2025 changes have at least helped to show he can be a serviceable #4 or #5 starter and eased the immediate concerns that he needs to shift to the bullpen. If Leiter refines his control or improves his contact prevention, he could unlock more upside akin to Frankie Montas/Aaron Civale. All in all, I do not see the ace upside with Leiter that came with the 2nd overall pick. Improving either his control or contact prevention would push Leiter into the mid-rotation tier rather than a pure backend starter. Watch his K% and BB% trends closely.

    Chad Patrick

    A relatively unknown prospect for the Brewers, Patrick’s best minor league season came in 2024 when he posted a 2.90 ERA over 136 AAA innings at age 25. This season, Patrick has seized his opportunity in the rotation and isn’t letting go. Through his first 8 GS, Patrick has a crisp 3.19 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. Patrick is finding success with his three-fastball mix (cutter, 4-seam, sinker) while throwing his changeup (6%) and slider (5%) minimally. With this profile, Patrick does not generate a ton of swing and miss but is more focused on inducing weak contact. Patrick’s profile closely mirrors 2024 Javier Assad and Michael Lorenzen—pitchers who rely on weak contact over strikeouts.

    Chad Patrick Rookie Review

    Patrick’s low strikeout rate means his success will depend heavily on BABIP and defensive support. If his luck turns, expect some volatility in ERA and WHIP. Keep in mind Javier Assad and Michael Lorenzon have had runs of success in the same division. Patrick fits best as a matchup-dependent streamer rather than a set-and-forget fantasy starter.

    Let us know on X @2BScoopBaseball if you have any feedback, questions, or would like to see any other players analyzed.

  • Roto Fantasy Baseball Saves Strategy: Top Non-Closers and Bullpen Roles to Watch – May 2025

    If you are reading this article, you are likely aching for saves in roto leagues like me. Drafting closers can be tricky, for example we have seen big name closers like Emmanuel Clase and Devin Williams temporarily shifted out of the closer jobs already this season. Using some custom calculations to dive deeper into some underlying player skills, I put together a list of deep league save targets for 2025. This list includes RPs who were not the primary closer for their team to start the season.

    Top-15 Closer Handcuffs

    1. Fernando Cruz
    2. Griffin Jax
    3. Shelby Miller
    4. Lucas Erceg
    5. Cade Smith
    6. Chris Martin
    7. Phil Maton
    8. Abner Uribe
    9. Porter Hodge
    10. Mason Montgomery/Garret Cleavinger
    11. Paul Sewald
    12. Justin Lawrence
    13. Reed Garrett
    14. Ryan Zeferjahn
    15. Steve Wilson

    Team’s Closer is Traded

    Griffin Jax – MIN

    The Twins have struggled out of the gate, sitting at 15-20, which could lead to trades if they fall further out of contention. Jhoan Duran, their closer with 62 career saves and a 2.48 career ERA, could become a key trade piece should Minnesota decide to retool. Despite a rough start inflating his 6.75 ERA, Griffin Jax’s underlying metrics tell a different story.

    Griffin Jax 2025 Stats

    His high .417 BABIP and strong SIERA and K-BB rate suggest a major bounce-back, making him a prime deep-league stash for fantasy managers seeking potential saves later in the season.

    Phil Maton – STL

    With the Cardinals unlikely to contend for the playoffs, they may look to retool for the future, putting Ryan Helsley in a prime trade position. If Helsley is moved, Phil Maton could step into save opportunities despite not having a traditional closer. Maton has quietly put together a strong season, posting a 2.22 SIERA with strong K%, BB%, and CSW.

    Phil Maton 2025 Stats

    While he does not have an overpowering fastball, his ability to generate whiffs and limit walks makes him an intriguing deep-league stash for this season. Keep an eye on the Cardinals’ standings—the further they fall, the higher the likelihood Helsley gets dealt, opening the door for Maton to see regular ninth-inning chances.

    Closer Takeover

    Fernando Cruz – NYY

    With Devin Williams struggling in his move to New York, the Yankees bullpen has leaned on both Fernando Cruz and Luke Weaver early in the season. While Weaver boasts a pristine 0.59 ERA, Cruz has shown greater strikeout potential, positioning himself as the Yankees’ most dominant late-inning arm.

    Cruz’s elite 40% K-rate and 36.4% CSW suggest he can sustain a ~35%+ strikeout rate, making him an intriguing fantasy stash. His splitter (55% whiff rate), four-seam fastball (45.5%), and slider (33.3%) have all generated swings and misses at an elite level.

    Fernando Cruz 2025 Stats

    Cruz has already secured two of the Yankees’ 10 saves, and if his performance holds, he could take a larger share of save opportunities. With Williams’ struggles and elite swing-and-miss stuff, Cruz is high-upside speculative add for fantasy managers hunting for saves.

    Lucas Erceg – KCR

    Carlos Estevez getting the bulk of save chances in KC is not because he is the best RP in KC, it is more of a result of KC investing a $22M over a 2-year. Erceg has beat out Estevez in nearly every key metric. Last season after being traded to the Royals, Erceg collected 11 saves in his 23 games and looked very capable of closing games for the Royals.

    Lucas Erceg 2025 Stats

    Pick-up Erceg as he could pick up the occasional save with upside for consistent saves. Also keep your eye out on Hunter Harvey in KC too as he has had a strong start and has closed in the past with the Nationals. Harvey is likely right behind Erceg on the bullpen pecking order.

    Chris Martin – TEX

    At 38 years old, Chris Martin might not be the flashiest name on this list, but timing is everything. The Rangers bullpen ranks in the bottom 5 of my custom bullpen rankings, and Luke Jackson, their current closer, has struggled with a 6.00 ERA.

    Chris Martin 2025 Stats

    Martin is positioned to steal save chances if Jackson continues to struggle. Robert Garcia is another dark horse option, but my hunch is that Bochy will go with the Martin given his success and previous closing experience.

    Injury Back-Ups

    Shelby Miller – ARZ

    The Diamondbacks bullpen has been hit hard by injuries, with AJ Puk (elbow strain, 60-day IL) and Justin Martinez (shoulder inflammation, 15-day IL) both sidelined. This has opened the door for Shelby Miller to step into save opportunities for Arizona. Miller recently earned his first save of the season, closing out a 4-2 win against the Mets.

    Miller should be picked up in all Roto leagues for the near future (May), as he is likely to see save chances until Martinez returns. Even when Martinez is back, Miller could still share opportunities if he continues to perform well. Keep an eye on Kevin Ginkel, who could also factor into the late-inning mix later in the season.

    Cade Smith/Paul Sewald – CLE

    After a rough start to the season, Emmanuel Clase was briefly removed from the closer’s role, allowing Cade Smith to step in and collect three saves. While Clase has since reclaimed the ninth inning role, the Guardians bullpen remains filled with talent. Smith could still steal save opportunities if anything happens to Clase(struggles again, gets injured, or is traded).

    Cleveland boasts a strong bullpen and has multiple late-inning options, including Cade Smith and Paul Sewald, both of whom have closing experience. If Clase falters, the Guardians could deploy a committee approach, making Smith and Sewald a valuable speculative stash.

    Reed Garrett – NYM

    While Edwin Díaz is firmly locked in as the Mets’ closer, Reed Garrett has quietly been the best arms in the Mets bullpen this season. He leads all Mets relievers in ERA (0.59) and holds (10).

    A strong indicator of pitcher effectiveness is K-BB%, which measures the ability to miss bats while limiting free passes. Garrett’s 21.3% K-BB rate places him between Matt Strahm (21.1%) and Jason Adam (22.4%), both of whom have been reliable late-game arms in recent years.

    Garrett is one injury away from save opportunities, making him a high-upside stash in deeper leagues if you have the roster room.

    Deep Shots

    Abner Uribe – MIL

    Uribe was given save opportunities early in the 2024 season before being sent down to the minors due to struggles. This season, Uribe has turned the page and is posting his best BB% of his MLB career. Megill has struggled to stay healthy for full seasons and does not have a long track record of closing, with 2024 being his lone season as a closer (21 saves). Uribe has outperformed Megill in some key metrics this season:

    Abner Uribe 2025 Stats

    Pat Murphy is not afraid to make changes, and I would not be shocked to see Uribe given a shot to close again if Megill struggles or gets injured. Uribe has led the Brewers in high-leverage usage and could see save situations sooner rather than later.

    Garret Cleavinger/Mason Montgomery – TBR

    With Pete Fairbanks locked in as the Rays’ primary closer, both Garrett Cleavinger and Mason Montgomery sit just behind him on the depth chart. The Rays hold a club option on Fairbanks through 2026, meaning he isn’t a long-term commitment, and could become a trade piece if Tampa Bay decides to retool.

    Given Fairbanks’ injury history and the possibility of the Rays selling off pieces, Cleavinger and Montgomery make for interesting save speculations. Both have elite underlying metrics, suggesting they could thrive in late-inning roles.

    Garret Cleavinger and Mason Montgomery 2025 stats

    Edwin Uceta remans another popular bullpen name; however, I see more upside in Cleavinger and Montgomery this season with their current stuff+ metrics. I lean towards Mason Montgomery as he has the elite stuff+ and has been used in more high-leverage usage ((SV +HD opportunities))/Games appeared) so far this season but both are worth a stash if you have the room.

    Porter Hodge – CHC

     Ryan Pressly, 36, was traded to the Cubs during the offseason and is currently signed to a 2-year contract ending 2026. Though the cubs have some investment in Pressly, he is on the wrong end of any aging curves and has started to see his skills decline. Pressly already had to have his knee drained this season in which Hodge picked up a save during that time.

    While Pressly has performed fine to date, keep an eye on Hodge as a back-up closing option if Pressly starts to struggle. Keep in mind, the biggest competitor to Hodge and Pressly for saves is likely someone who is not on the Cubs roster yet.

    DoubleDeep Shots

    Justin Lawrence – PIT

    With David Bednar fighting to regain form after a minor league stint, the Pirates may be motivated to showcase him for a midseason trade. If Bednar is moved or struggles again, Justin Lawrence could be a dark-horse candidate to step into save opportunities. Lawrence has experience closing for the Rockies in 2023, with 11 saves, and is now looking like is having a career year.

    Justin Lawrence 2025 Stats

    As primarily a sweeper/sinker pitcher, getting out of Colorado should help his pitch movement alone. It also looks like he has reintroduced his four-seam fastball this season which has a 33% whiff rate. This slight tweak will help Lawrence attack hitters differently vertically in the zone and keep them guessing between his fastballs. Consider adding him to your watchlist but hold off on stashing unless Bednar falters.

    Ryan Zeferjahn – LAA

    With Kenley Jansen surfacing in early-season trade rumors, the Angels’ bullpen situation could shift dramatically. Given Los Angeles’ struggles, a midseason trade wouldn’t be surprising, potentially opening the door for Ryan Zeferjahn to step into a larger role.

    Zeferjahn has stood out in the Angels pen with a 46.5% K rate, 39.5% K-BB, and a 1.14 SIERA. He also finds himself among stuff+ leaders among RP right between Mason Miller and Alex Vesia at a 123.6 Stuff+.

    Steven Wilson – CHW

    While Brandon Eisert is the only White Sox pitcher with a recorded save, Steven Wilson has been their most effective reliever, posting a 0.00 ERA and 0.52 WHIP to date. Wilson looks to have made mechanical changes year over year, raising his arm slot 43 degrees to 47 degrees and adding an additional 4.6 inches of induced drop on his sweeper.

    While his 3.28 SIERA indicate his ERA will regress some, I still expect Wilson to be a top contributor to the Chi-Sox pen given their limited bullpen talent.

    Reach out on X @2BScoopBaseball for any questions or other deep dives you want to see

  • Dynasty Buy-Low Targets: April Edition

    Last post we detailed some breakout dynasty hitters in April. Now we will dive into some buy-low dynasty hitters who should shake off their cold Aprils soon. These April buy-low hitters all have WRC+ under 100 and are showing signs that a slow April is nothing more.

    Mark Vientos – 96 wRC+

    I rushed to get this post out early to make sure Vientos would still qualify with a sub 100 wRC+. If you aren’t already familiar with his game, Mark Vientos emerged as a breakout slugger in 2024 launching 27 home runs over 454 plate appearances. This power surge was backed by a 46.6% hard-hit rate and 14.1% barrel-rate. However, there seems to be a difference in approach so far in 2025. Vientos’ average bat speed has dipped to 70.0 mph, down from 73.7 mph in 2023 and 71.8 mph in 2024. While this drop may raise concerns, it coincides with clear improvements in his contact rate (68.0% → 72.2%) and strikeout rate (29.7% → 20.2%) year over year. This suggests he may be refining his swing for more consistent contact rather than all-out power. A deeper look at his batted ball profile supports this adjustment:

    Mark Vientos 2024 vs 2025 batted ball

    His oppo% has increased to 30.7% and his pull% has dropped to 34.7%, indicating a shift toward a more balanced approach. Pitchers are attacking Vientos differently as well, increasing their use of sweepers to 15.8%(up from 9.2% in 2024)—a pitch he struggled against last season. His swing adjustments may be an attempt to handle sweepers and sliders more effectively, sacrificing some raw power for improved bat control.

    Vientos is locked in as the Mets’ everyday third baseman, hitting behind Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, and Pete Alonso. With a secure role locking in playing time, bet on Vientos rediscovering his power stroke as he balances the pull/oppo approach.

    Nolan Jones – 78 wRC+

    Nolan Jones may be available on waivers or free agency in your league, making him a cheap buy-low candidate. After a 20-20 season in 2023 over just 424 plate appearances, Jones entered 2024 with breakout buzz. However, injuries and inconsistent performance limited him to only 79 games with the Rockies.

    Now back with the Guardians, Jones is off to a sluggish start in 2025, posting a .276 wOBA and .593 OPS so far in April. Despite the slow production, his underlying metrics hint at the potential for a strong rebound:

    • Average EV: 95.2 mph
    • Hard-Hit Rate: 59.1%.
    • BB%: 14.1%.

    Jones’ performance is similar Pavin Smith, the Diamondbacks’ early breakout hitter with a 202 WRC+ in April. Both players are in platoon roles against right-handed pitching, but Jones is hitting the ball harder and has improved his contact rate to 78.8% which would be slightly above league average. His improved contact, discipline, and power suggest better days are ahead if he continues regular playing time.

    Nolan Jones vs Pavin Smith

    If Jones maintains this hard-hit rate for a full season, he’ll join an elite tier of hitters like Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Yordan Alvarez. With his past hype as a 20-20 player, improved hard-hit rates, and his position at the top of the Guardians lineup, now is the perfect time to take a low-risk flier on Jones.

    Salvador Perez – 77 wRC+

    I sold Perez in my home league a few years back anticipating a decline as he aged into his 30s. I’ve regretted it ever since. Year after year, Perez has defied age and has proved he is one of the most reliable bats at the position. Since 2015, Perez has hit 20+ home runs in every full season, with 11 HR during the shortened 2020 season. Looking at his underlying metrics in 2025, Perez appears to have all the skills necessary to maintain success:

    Salvadoor Perez 2023, 2024, and 2025 comparison

    So far this season Perez has improved his contact, hard-hit, and barrel-rates, indicating that Perez slow start may just be a blip. Despite slashing just .224/.272.364, Perez remains one of the safest bets at the catcher position. If you are weak at catcher and need an upgrade, now is the perfect time to send out an offer.

    Triston Casas – 60 wRC+

    Casas is off to a slow start in 2025, slashing .172/.273/.310 on the season. A closer look at his underlying metrics suggests that his struggles may be more about bad luck than declining skill.

    Triston Casas 2025 stats vs career stats

    Casas’ hard-hit rate and barrel rate are just down compared to his career norms, yet his .197 BABIP is well below his career average of .291, indicating poor fortune on balls in play. Another sign of potential positive regression, is his wOBA (.260) is -0.52 points behind his xwOBA (.312), hinting that he is making solid contact but not getting the results.

    While Casas may not have elite upside at first base, his spot in the middle of the Red Sox lineup gives him plenty of opportunity to manufacture runs. At just 25 years old, there’s still room for growth. His power/discipline make him a valuable long-term asset in dynasty formats with even more of a boost in points leagues.

    Jake Burger – 48 wRC+

    Jake Burger is a DoubleScoop guy, no question about it. While his .180/.211/.326 start in 2025 is discouraging, it is important not to lose faith in his long-term outlook. Power hitters with high K% are often streaky by nature, and Burger fits that mold perfectly. Historically, Burger has been a second-half performer, showing improvements in K%, AVG, OBP, and SLG as the season progresses.

    Jake Burger 1st half vs 2nd half career stats

    Encouragingly, his underlying metrics such as barrel, hard-hit, and K rates, are consistent with his career norms. Playing in the Rangers’ strong lineup, Burger has ample opportunity to rack up RBI and HR as the season moves forward. If Burger is available on waivers/FA in your league, now is the time to grab him. Remember what Eugenio Suarez has taught us in past seasons… Once the summer heat arrives, let Burger cook.

    Honorable Mentions

    • Dylan Crews (78 wRC+): Off to a .229/.260/.385 slash line in April, Crews has interesting tools, showing off 97th percentile sprint speed and 73rd percentile bat speed in 2025. He has also managed a 15.7% barrel-rate through April. I believe Crews has enough contact ability to take advantage of his speed/power and can see him as a consistent 20/30 HR/SB threat in the years to come.
    • Vinnie Pasquantino (51 wRC+): April has been a challenge for Pasquantino, marked by an increase in K% and a dip in contact rate. Despite this, his bat speed remains strong, and he is pulling the ball in the air more frequently than ever. At just 27 years old, Vinnie P has plenty of bounce-back potential for the rest of 2025. He remains a top-12 dynasty 1B.
    • Colt Keith (70 wRC+): Keith is a young hitter with strong zone control and has shown 20+ HR upside in the MiLB. His 2025 BB% (18.1%) ranks among league leaders and is supported by a 90th percentile chase rate (19.3%). Keith, an opposite filed hitter at heart, is quoted in an Athletic article stating his approach: “Through the minor leagues, I’ve always tried to hit line drives to left-center, and that allowed me to pull the ball the right way.” You can see this approach reflected in his hit MLB hit charts. At just 23 years old, Keith has a good foundation of zone/contact skills and will need to adjust his timing for more pull power to unlock 20+ HR power potential.

    Reach out on X @2BScoopBaseball for any questions or other player deep dives you want to see

  • Breakout Dynasty Targets- April

         A lot of fun fantasy action already this season with early April breakouts and top prospect call-ups like Chandler Simpson and Nick Kurtz. This article will focus on highlighting the early April breakout hitters to target in dynasty leagues.

         The list of breakout hitters includes current MLB hitters (50+ PA in 2025) who have taken a step forward in their career so far in 2025 and are good bets to continue their April success into the future.

    5 Breakout Dynasty Targets

    Ben Rice

    Yankees fans could start forgetting about Juan Soto soon if Rice continues his breakout performance in 2025. After a modest debut in 2024 (73 WRC+), Rice has elevated his game, posting elite metrics like a 25.0% barrel rate and 64.6% hard hit rate. His bat speed has jumped from 71.4 to 74.6, signaling his power gains are legit. A late bloomer who spent time catching in the minors, Rice is now focused solely on hitting—and it’s paying off. It is an extremely small sample size, but Rice did his best Ohtani impression in April.

    Ben Rice April 2025 stats

    I do not expect Rice to be Ohtani for the rest of his career, but If Rice maintains this pace, he could emerge as a top-5 dynasty first baseman by season’s end and is a must-buy in dynasty leagues.

    Tyler Soderstrom

    One of my favorite breakout picks for 2025, Soderstrom shared breakout signs in 2024 with a 48.9% hard hit rate and a 14.6% barrel rate. In 2025 he is making the most out of his opportunity and currently is tired for the league lead with 9 HRs. His K% has improved from 24.9% to 22.3% rates and his batted ball metrics in 2025 have all taken another step forward. Below is a comparison of Soderstrom’s start to the season with Gunnar Henderson’s 2024 season, showing the potential he has if the improvements stick.

    Tyler Soderstrom April 2025 Stats

    The Athletics have a developing hitting core in Butler, Rooker, Soderstrom, and Langeliers mixed with other promising rookies Wilson and Kurtz. With the improved stadium situation and developing lineup around Soderstrom, buy in now before he is viewed as a top 10 dynasty first baseman across the industry.

    Jonathan Aranda

    A longtime minor leaguer with a rare four minor league options, Aranda has consistently produced at the highest levels of the minors, posting an OPS above .950 in AA and AAA since 2021. Despite a modest .737 OPS in his third MLB stint in 2024, he is now locked in as the Rays’ starting first baseman and isn’t letting go. Aranda has lowered his K rate (16.4%) while increasing nearly all his batted ball metrics year over year. His 113-mph max exit velocity in the minors and 46.4% hard hit rate last year in the MLB show that the power has been present.

    Jonatham Aranda April 2025 Stats

    While the sample size is small (62 AB), his early-season performance draws comparisons to elite hitters like Juan Soto. If he maintains this trajectory, Aranda could solidify himself as a top-16 dynasty first baseman with upside for top-12.

    Wilyer Abreu

    Abreu had a solid rookie season in 2024 putting up 114 WRC+ in 447 PA. He now finds himself in the heart of the order vs RHP and is off to a hot start in 2025. In his first 95 PA in 2025, his batted ball metrics are similar to his career marks, but the most interesting changes are is in his K%, Z-Contact, and O-Swing (below). It is always a good sign to see a hitters K% improve, but even better when it is paired with the hitter lowering his out of the zone swing rate (O-Swing%) and improving his in-zone swing (Z-Swing) and contact rates (Z-Contact).

    Wilyer Abreu 2024 vs 2025

    This means Abreu is swinging at less balls and being more aggressive on strikes which is a recipe for success. He is also making more contact on pitches in the zone, so giving himself a chance at more hard balls in play by being more aggressive and making more contact. Abreu has made some slight mechanical changes that could be helping his breakout. In 2024, he had more of vertical leg kick and would need to drop his head and body into a lower position as he started his swing. In 2025, Abreu has shifted to a smaller leg kick where he appears to be hinging more into his hips/back side and now has less head movement from the peak of his leg kick to start of swing. Limiting head movement and simplifying the leg kick are great ways to see the ball better and make better swing decisions.

    Wilyer Abreu 2024
    Wilyer Abreu 2025

    Abreu, in his age 26 season, has always had strong batted ball metrics and should move up dynasty rankings further if he continues his contact/swing decision improvements. He will be heading into his prime years the next few seasons and grabbing him now could be a strong investment.

    Kyle Manzardo

    A highly regarded prospect for the Guardians, Manzardo is quietly breaking out in 2025. Despite a .217 batting average, he’s running a .900+ OPS thanks to elite walk rates (14.1%) and a hard-hit rate that has jumped to 45.1%. His barrel rate has more than doubled from 9.5% in 2024 to 19.6%, showcasing some of the power he displayed during his MiLB time (14.6% est. barrel rate in AAA in 2024 on our MiLB barrel rate tool). Our est. MiLB barrel rate tool can be found here: Fantasy Baseball Tools

    Kyle Manzardo 2024 vs 2025

    With an improved K rate and a history of strong hard-hit rates in the minors, Manzardo’s batting average should continue to rise to around league average as the season progresses. His combination of plus power/discipline and a developing hit tool makes him a breakout candidate for dynasty leagues looking to stock up on youth.

    Honorable Mentions

    • Kyren Paris: Interesting power/speed combo but still have a lot of questions about his hit tool with a 58% contact rate and 30+ K% rate. Has the tools to put up 20/20 seasons going forward, but will likely be a streaky hitter who runs a low batting average.
    • Jacob Wilson: Elite hit tool comparable to Arraez and Kwan. Think their could be a little more power develop in Wilson’s bat vs the others but would still cap Wilson at 15 homeruns at his peak.
    • Alek Thomas: Thomas has average to plus hit, power, and speed tools but has never put it all the skills into results. Thomas has bounced around the big leagues since 2022 and is now just 25 years old in 2025 is getting an everyday role on one of the best offenses as Jake McCarthy has been sent down. I view Thomas as a potential 15/25 hitter who should run average to above average BA.

    Reach out on X @2BScoopBaseball for any questions or other player deep dives you want to see

  • Rangers Spring Training Notes – 2/17

    A Suprise Spring Training Trip

    Baseball fever is spreading across the country with the college season starting and spring training now picking up. I was lucky to make an impromptu stop by the spring training facility in Surprise, AZ shared by the Rangers and Royals while driving home from a vacation in Yavapai County. Since I only had a few hours and have an affinity for the Rangers since my days attending college at UT Arlington, it was an easy decision to go check out Texas’ favorite ballclub.

    After pitchers and catchers got some initial work in, the pitchers went to the bullpen to warm-up before live BP. After warming up, pitchers immediately went into live BP across the different fields where groups of hitters were broken out. There I was able to watch the first group of pens before shifting over to watch live ABs with Corey Seager, Sebastian Walcott, and Nate Eovaldi. Due to this I was not to see the full list of pitchers in the second group.

    General Notes

    • Degrom, Gray, and Rocker were all getting in fielding work before live BP and were throwing in drills
    • Veterans led the first group of bullpens: Jesse Chavez, Dane Dunning, Nate Eovaldi, and Tyler Mahle
    • Second group of bullpens included: Jacob Webb and JT Chargois
    • Last group of bullpens was: Luis Curvelo, Patrick Murphy, Jack Leiter, and David Buchanan

    Live BP Notes

    • Eovaldi looked sharp while facing his hitters which included Dustin Harris, Corey Seager, and Sebastian Walcott. He was getting ahead in counts and generating swing and misses on his fastballs, slider, and splitter. Good vibes throughout catch play, bullpen, and live BP. His at bat against Seager ended up being my favorite at bat of the day to watch (video below).
    • Seager had a hard opposite field line drive his first ABs against Eovaldi and hit a routine fly ball against Webb. He looked to be taking full swings and should ready to go the 2025 season coming off the hip injury in September.
    • Walcott struck out swinging in his at bat against Eovaldi on 4 pitches. In his second AB, he worked back from an 0-2 count to draw a 9-pitch walk against Jacob Webb. Showed patient approach early in counts and good to see him getting work against quality MLB pitching as he still 18, turning 19 in March. Excited to see what the rest of the spring has in store for Walcott.
    • Jack Leiter gave up hard contact on fastballs to Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien, and Higgy. He generated some whiffs and called strikes on the slider and curveball. I believe improving command of his breaking balls and being able to mix those pitches in on fastball counts would help Leiter take a step forward in 2025. in 2023 and 2024 he threw his fastball over 50%, with MLB hitters slugging .625 off the pitch in 2024. Keep an eye on the pitch mix with Leiter as he still has some of the raw tools to be a productive major league pitcher and will just be turning 25 this season.

    Live BP Videos

    Nate Eovaldi vs Corey Seager during live BP on 2/17
    Nate Eovaldi vs Sebastian Walcott during live BP on 2/17
    Jacob Webb vs Sebastian Walcott during live BP on 2/17
    Jack Leiter vs Adolis Garcia during live bp on 2/17
  • 2024 Top 10 Starting Pitchers BB Rate Improvers

    2024 Top 10 Starting Pitchers BB Rate Improvers

    Background

    In today’s day and age of chasing high K%, stuff+, and red lollipops, I wanted to take time to focus on pitchers that saw the strongest improvements in their BB rates in 2024. While walks are only part a pitcher’s possible outcomes, I believe pitchers can improve their “control” through various means such as approach, preparation, pitch sighting, and other means. In this article we will dive into the top 10 starting pitchers who improved their BB rate from 2023 to 2024 and looking deeper into their numbers to forecast what 2025 may have in store for these arms. To qualify for this list, a pitcher must have thrown at least 100 major league innings in both the 2023 and 2024 seasons. 

    2023 Top Improvers

         To get an idea of who would have made this list last year running the same exercise, the biggest 2022 to 2023 BB improvers with at least 100 IP in both seasons were Yusei Kikuchi, Justin Steele, Adrian Houser, Joe Ryan, Logan Webb, Kyle Bradish, Mitch Keller, Logan Gilbert, Dane Dunning, and George Kirby. While not all had full seasons in 2024, Gilbert, Kirby Steele, Ryan, Webb all had strong results with Kikuchi and Keller also contributing some valuable innings throughout the season. With that, we dive into the top 10 starting pitchers who improved their BB rate year over year to better prepare you for your fantasy baseball drafts.

    2024 Top Improvers

    Top 10 starting pitchers BB rate Improvers year over year from 2023 to 2024
    1. Nick Martinez – Martinez topped our rate of improvers with his BB% dropping from 8.7% down to 3.2% which would be the 3rd lowest walk rate out of pitchers with 100+ innings in 2024 behind Bryan Woo (2.8%) and George Kirby (3.0%). 2024 was a career year for Martinez, topping his career bests in BB% (3.2%), ERA (3.10), innings pitched (142.1), WAR (3.5), and K-BB (17.2%). Martinez was partially able to improve his walk rate by improving his zone % and FPS% to career bests at 52.8% and 67.5% respectively. For extra context since these stats will be brought up again during this article, major league average is 48.7% for zone % and 61% for FPS% according to Baseball Savant. Looking into his pitch mix changes year over year, Martinez increased the usage of his hard pitches (4S/Cutter/Sinker) from 51.8% to 60.3% while also bringing back his slider in 2024. Focusing more on different fastballs and lowering the breaking ball/offspeed pitches is one way to improve control if Martinez is able to better control his fastballs vs his other pitches. Martinez just re-signed a qualifying offer and will be under contract with the Reds for one more season with the chances of a trade at the deadline pending how the Reds season plays out.  Martinez will be primed for a starters workload in 2025 and while I do expect his homerun rates to fall closer to career rates and a regression in ERA, I’d still consider Martinez a buy vs his current Streamer projections at a 4.72 ERA. 
    2. Jack Flaherty – Flaherty posted a career best BB% at 5.9% in 2024. This mixed with his K rates jumping back to peak 2018-2019 rates pushed Flaherty back onto fantasy managers radars in 2024. Flaherty ditched his cutter in 2024 and increased his fastball, slider, and curveball usage. He used his sinker and change-up as a show me 4th pitch to right-handers and left-handers respectively giving him 4 pitches to each side. Digging deeper into some of the pitch heat map visualizations on Baseball Savant, it looks like Flaherty is filling up the zone more consistently with his 4S compared to previous years. However, his zone % and FPS % were at 45.7% and 61.2% makes me think he could be in line for regression with his BB% next year. I am in line with most of his 2025 Steamer projections at a 25.2% K%, 7.6% BB% and a 3.85 ERA, but expect his BB% to go back above 9%. Do not reach for Flaherty, but look at him as a borderline top 50 SP.
    3. Andrew Heaney – A decade ago in 2014, Heaney was the top prospect for the Marlins who was the main piece in the trade that brought Dee Gordon, Dan Haren, and Miguel Rojas to the Marlins. Flash forward to 2024 and Heaney is coming off one of his more productive seasons of his career, logging his highest IP (160) and WAR (2.2) since 2018. Heaney ranked tied 4th in BB% improvers in 2024 with a 5.9% BB% which brought him closer to his career BB% at 6.9%. In 2023, his first year with the Rangers, Heaney’s BB% shot up 3.3% to 9.4%, which was the highest of his career, so a normalization to his career rates helped Heaney get a spot on this list. Keeping his BB% rate in line with his career rates will be needed for Heaney to remain successful as his K% and fastball velocity trend down. I’d expect Heaney to be a similar pitcher to who he was in 2024, a back-end starter who will throw 160+ innings. For shallower leagues, recommend using Heaney as a streamer while in deeper leagues could be a late round flier if needing innings and Ks, but keep an eye on where he signs this offseason.
    4. Jake Irvin – Irvin was a constant in a young Nationals rotation during the 2024 season who held it down during the first half throwing 100+ innings of 3.49 ERA before getting hit with a 1.88 HR/9 and 5.90 ERA in the second half. This year, Irvin’s BB% improved by 3.4% down to 5.9% and slots right between Mitch Spence and Jose Berrios in 2024 BB% rankings. Irvin introduced a cutter into his primarily 4S, curve, sinker mix to become more of a 4-pitch pitcher. This can allow him to attack hitters more aggressively with his different pitches, especially vs left-handed hitters which Irvin has ditched his sinker in favor of his cutter in 2024. Steamer has Irvin projected to keep most of his BB% gains in 2025 at 7.6% which I think he has a chance to beat given his minor league BB% rates were around 6.8% before AAA in 2023 when they introduced the ABS system. How, without an improvement or increased usage to a current pitch such as his changeup or an introduction to a new plus whiff pitch, there is a lack of upside and project Irvin to finish 2025 somewhere in the middle between his 2023/2024 results with 160+ innings and mid 4s ERA. Recommend keeping Irvin as a weekly streamer in 2025.
    5. Blake Snell – Snell is one of my favorite pitchers in the game and is someone I’d love to treat to an ice cream one day courtesy of DoubleScoopBaseball. Snell is an interesting pitcher for this article as he consistently has one of the highest BB% in the league and is still able to maintain success due to how good he is at striking hitters out and limiting base hits/homeruns. In 2023, when Snell was the National League’s CY young award winner, he had a league high 13.3% BB%. In 2024, he was top 5 in BB% improvers among starters with 100+ IP while also increasing his year over year K% and batting average against. His BB% specifically was back in line with his career averages and did not fluctuate throughout the year which was a tale of two halves. With his recent signing with the Dodgers, I’m expecting Snell to keep his momentum as he should have a normal spring training and has the potential to be a top 5 SP. Currently ADP from NFBC has him going as the 17th pitcher, I wouldn’t let him slide too far and would take him as a top 10 SP in 2025 drafts.
    6. Tanner Houck – Houck has been an intriguing arm since coming up with the Red Sox in 2020 and 2021, posting K rates of 30%+ in both seasons. Looking back at Houck’s 2024 season, he posted a career best 6.5% BB%, however this also came with a career low 20.7% K%. Houck continued to evolve his pitch mix from 2023 and ramped up his splitter usage from 11% to 25% and introducing a true sweeper to replace his slider that increased his horizontal break by 5 inches with around half inch less vertical break without sacrificing velocity. He also dropped his 4-seam completely while only throwing his cutter 1% of the time in 2024. On top of the pitch mix change, Houck had a career best zone % and FPS % at 53% and 65%, both above league average marks according to Baseball Savant. Simplifying a 5-pitch mix into a primarily 3-pitch mix in combo with attacking hitters more aggressively is a good recipe for repeating his control gains going into 2025. On top of that, Houck gets a ton of groundballs, so if he can continue to tinker with his pitches, such as continuing to develop his cutter, it will give him another weapon against lefties and possibly a better way to keep hitters off balance and generate more Ks. Houck currently has an NFBC ADP lower than Nick Pivetta, Bowen Francis, Nathan Eovaldi, Brandon Woodruff, and Mackenzie Gore, of which I believe Houck has the chance to outperform except Gore due to Gore’s upside. 
    7. Nick Pivetta – Pivetta just wrapped up his 8th major league season and like many on this list, is coming off career best BB%. Looking at how he was attacking hitters, he jumped to a 68.6% FPS% in 2024 which would put him in the top 10 of pitchers who had 100+ innings pitched. All in all, results did not change a ton for Pivetta, with his ERA increasing a hair from 4.04 to 4.14 year over year. If looking for a silver lining, his SIERA was 3.31, indicating he pitched better than his ERA. He kept most of his K% gains from 2023 which can give hope for an eventual breakout if he signs somewhere with a pitcher friendly park which could help improve his homerun rate which was bottom 5 in the league among starters. I’m still worried he is too predictable against LHB and RHB which could lead to him getting hit hard, however his 4S, Sweeper, Curveball combo could still be good enough to keep his strong K-BB results he has posted over the past two years. Keep an eye on where Pivetta signs, if going to a pitcher friendly park he could be an interesting buy, otherwise I’d expect more of the same from Pivetta.
    8. Ranger Suarez – Suarez originally broke out on the fantasy radar in 2021 posting a ridiculous 1.36 ERA in 106 innings. In the 3 seasons since he has posted a more modest 3.74 ERA and a 3.70 FIP, which is very serviceable in Fantasy leagues. One sign pointing to his improvements in BB%, is his career best in FPS% at 64.5%. While not an elite rate, it does give me confidence that he is continuing to improve the way he is mixing his pitches. This goes to show as he increased his curveball usage when trying to throw more “get me over” strikes in 0-0, 1-0, 2-0 counts. Suarez has 5 pitches that he throws over 10% of the time, of which his curveball and changeups run whiff rates of 30%+. If there is one knock I have against Suarez, it’s that his velocity is down across all his pitches in 2024 but going into his age 30 season I could see a bounce back in some velocity. Suarez is the 105th ranked SP in terms of ADP by NFBC. Let Suarez fall in your drafts but try and grab him as he has a great 5-pitch mix and should get a good number of wins behind the Phillies offense which I feel confident will lead to top 50 SP results.
    9. Charlie Morton – One of oldest active pitchers in the MLB in 2024 behind Justin Verlander and Jesse Chavez, Morton is still finding ways to improve his game and finding a way on to this list. Unfortunately, even with the improvement, the 9.3% BB% in 2024 brought him back in line with his career average 8.6% BB%. Morton has always been slightly below average in his career with FPS % with his 2024 rate equaling his 59.3%. Morton’s zone % remains below his career averages in 2024 and at age 42 and coming off a season with a 9.3% BB%, I do not expect any signs of improvement for Morton. Paired with declining velocity, lowering K rates, and uncertainty on where he may sign in 2025, I would look elsewhere deeper in drafts. Even if desperate for innings in deeper leagues, I would take the shot on other veteran arms or younger arms who could earn rotation spots in season.
    10. Corbin Burnes – Hopefully this post isn’t needed to convince you that Corbin Burnes is worth drafting. Burnes has been one of the top pitchers over the past few seasons and finds himself as number 10 on our list. Burnes zone % was relatively similar to 2023, but he was able to increase his first FPS% to 63.9%, a good improvement over his career rates of 60.2% Similar to Suarez, this number does not jump out, but getting ahead of more hitters and putting yourself in pitchers count puts a pitcher in a better position for success. To me this also could indicate that this pitcher is either more confident with their pitches, attempting to be more aggressive in the zone, or finding ways to more consistently land their 0-0 breaking balls and off-speed pitches. Fun fact about Burnes 2024 season, he increased his 0-0 curveball usage from 19.5% to 30.4%. Burnes should be in a good position to keep his BB% gains in 2025 and do not expect too much regression here as he continues to improve going into the 2025 where he will be 30 for the regular season. His velocity on his cutter/sinker were the highest since his 2021 season and his curveball, slider, changeup are all plus pitches. Burnes will be a top 10 SP taken off the board. Feel comfortable taking him as your #1 SP on to your team as he has been one of the most dependable pitchers over the past few seasons with no signs of slowing down.